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1. Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
New regime, new quarterback. While I tend to think Luck is a little overrated, he’s a can’t-miss prospect with no discernable weaknesses.
2. Washington Redskins (trade with St. Louis): Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
They traded three first-round picks and a second rounder to move up four spots. Shanahan gets his man.
3. Minnesota Vikings: Matt Kalil, OT, USC
The Vikings took Christian Ponder, an injury-prone quarterback, in round one last year. Kalil can step in from day one and keep him upright and will be a future All-Pro.
4. Cleveland Browns: Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
Pair him with Joe Haden and you have the makings of a shutdown pass defense.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
Josh Freeman needs a running game behind him. Richardson is the best tailback available and no corner is worth a top-10 pick with Claiborne gone.
6. St. Louis Rams: Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
They got a major haul for the No. 2 pick and still get their top target with the sixth pick.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
Blaine Gabbert isn’t very good, but then again did you see who he was throwing to? Floyd ran better than expected, had a productive career and has the size necessary to be a No. 1 receiver at the next level.
8. Miami Dolphins: Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
I don’t get why Miami is shifting to a 4-3 when the defense was the team’s strength. But adding a big, athletic defensive end like Coples to play opposite Cameron Wake would be a huge get. He’s a top-five talent with a questionable motor.
9. Carolina Panthers: Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis
Maybe we’ve all fallen victim of the moment, but there just aren’t many 350-pound human beings who can move like Poe. The Panthers have the league’s worst set of defensive tackles, so Poe would be a major upgrade and would free up the Panthers strong set of linebackers.
10. Buffalo Bills: Melvin Ingram, DE/OLB, South Carolina
With a dominant combine performance, Ingram moves ahead of Courtney Upshaw as the first hybrid player off the board. Buffalo has a great set of defensive tackles, but needs someone to threaten the corner.
11. Kansas City Chiefs: Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
Scott Pioli is a New England guy and perhaps no team other than the Eagles likes drafting linemen early. Reiff comes from an established program and can play either tackle position.
12. Seattle Seahawks: Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M
The Seahawks strike out on Flynn and Manning, but have the chance to take the draft’s third-best quarterback. Tannehill has tremendous upside and athleticism.
13. Arizona Cardinals: David DeCastro, G, Stanford
The Cardinals offensive is abysmal. DeCastro is one of the best guard prospects of the past decade and would be an immediate starter and future Pro Bowler.
14. Dallas Cowboys: Mark Barron, S, Alabama
Dallas needs to shore up its secondary. I think they’ll address cornerback in free agency, but there isn’t a safety of Barron’s caliber on the open market.
15. Philadelphia Eagles: Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State
Everyone has the Eagles taking Boston College linebacker Luke Kuechly, but look at Andy Reid’s draft history and Cox immediately becomes the front runner. His impressive combine and upside make him a fit in the Eagles’ aggressive front-four.
16. New York Jets: Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College
Kuechly has a chance to form a dangerous duo next to David Harris. The Jets can address their pass rush need in round two.
17. Cincinnati Bengals: Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
Marvin Lewis loves defense, and Kirkpatrick would shore up the other side of the field as long as Leon Hall returns from injury.
18. San Diego Chargers: Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama
Larry English failed to be the pass rusher the Chargers envisioned when they took him at 16 in 2009. Upshaw is the most complete edge player because of his toughness and versatility.
19. Chicago Bears: Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech
Jay Cutler had his best years playing with Brandon Marshall. Hill isn’t as physical as Marshall, but has much better long speed and separation skills.
20. Tennessee Titans: Whitney Mercilus, DE, Illinois
Mercilus is a bit of an enigma. He’s got a good frame, tested well and had a great 2011 season. However, he’s a one-year wonder who is a bit of tweener at this point. Tennessee needs to upgrade its pass rush.
21. Cincinnati Bengals: Cordy Glenn, G, Georgia
Glenn is a versatile prospect who can play four positions on the line. His size is a perfect fit for the Bengals. Imagine him next to Andrew Whitworth or Andre Smith.
22. Cleveland Browns: Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor
Adding an explosive playmaker like Wright would be a decent consolation prize for the Browns, who swung and missed on the bigger Baylor star in RG III.
23. Detroit Lions: Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
Getting a potential franchise tackle this late will be a gift for the Lions. They passed over Michael Oher in 2009 for Brandon Pettigrew, but have a chance to take Jeff Backus’ successor here.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Dont’a Hightower, LB, Alabama
He has the ability to line up at any linebacker spot, and has the experience and pedigree that should make him a great fit in the Steelers 3-4 defense.
25. Denver Broncos: Michael Brockers, DT, LSU
I tend to think Brockers is overrated, and after an underwhelming combine performance, he falls out of the top half of the draft. Denver has great edge rushers but needs to beef up the middle of its run defense.
26. Houston Texans: Nick Perry, DE/OLB, USC
Brooks Reed is a nice player, but Perry is substantially more talented. Putting them in a rotation opposite Connor Barwin will be deadly.
27. New England Patriots: Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama
Jenkins has top-10 talent and is a former SEC star that made some mistakes, but re-established his value. He reminds me of a more physically-gifted Asante Samuel.
28. Green Bay Packers: Devon Still, DT, Penn State
The Packers have the luxury of taking the best player on the board. Still was once pegged as a possible top-10 pick, but he didn’t have a great combine and isn’t a premier interior rusher. He could play five-technique for Green Bay.
29. Baltimore Ravens: Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin
With Matt Birk contemplating retirement and Ben Grubbs possibly departing as a free agent, Baltimore needs to improve the interior of its offensive line. Konz is a no-nonsense type of player who fits the Ravens profile.
30. San Francisco 49ers: Rueben Randle, WR, LSU
The 49ers need someone to attract attention opposite Michael Crabtree. Randle is a big, fast receiver whose best football is ahead of him.
31. New England Patriots: Kendall Reyes, DT, Connecticut
I have a feeling the Pats will trade this pick considering the players remaining are fringe first-rounders. However, if they keep it, they will look to bolster their defensive front with Reyes, a 6-foot-4, 300-pounder who has great strength. He best projects as a defensive end in a 3-4.
32. New York Giants: David Wilson, RB, Virginia Tech
The Giants subscribe to taking the best player available and Wilson is clearly it. He also fills a need as a young running back who can contribute on all three downs.
Round Two
33. St. Louis: Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State
Jason Smith has been a bust as the second overall pick in ’09. Adams is talented, but needs to toughen up.
34. Indianapolis: Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford
The Colts might as well give Andrew Luck his favorite target in college.
35. Minnesota: Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina
Gilmore has a chance to go in the bottom of the first round and fits the Vikings mold of a physical corner.
36. Tampa Bay: Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska
Dennard drops to the second round but is a good fit in Tampa across from Aqib Talib.
37. Cleveland: Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma State
Cleveland strikes out on Manning and Flynn, but takes a pro-ready QB in Weeden.
38. Jacksonville: Andre Branch, DE, Clemson
Branch is a fast riser who is a bit of a tweener. He could play outside linebacker in a 3-4 or a 4-3 DE. Either way, he upgrades the Jaguars abysmal pass rush.
39. St. Louis: Jerel Worthy, DT, Michigan State
Once pegged as the top defensive tackle, Worthy had an underwhelming combine and slips to round two. Putting him on a line with Chris Long and Robert Quinn could be great.
40. Carolina: Alshon Jeffrey, WR, South Carolina
He’s an enigma, but he could be a steal in round two. He has great size and leaping ability, but there are questions about his long speed.
41. Buffalo: Zach Brown, LB, North Carolina
I tend to think Brown is overrated and don’t think he’ll go in the first round. He has tremendous speed which will be a good fit in Buffalo’s 4-3 defense.
42. Miami: Harrison Smith, S, Notre Dame
The Dolphins have a very solid defense, but need a playmaker in the back end.
43. Seattle: Vinny Curry, DE, Marshall
Curry is an ideal fit as the Leo position in Pete Carroll’s defense.
44. Kansas City: Alameda Ta’amu, NT, Washington
With Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey at the end spots, Ta’amu solidifies the front three.
45. Dallas: Kevin Zeitler, G, Wisconsin
The Cowboys need to protect Romo. Zeitler is pro-ready and will fill in nicely next to Tyron Smith or Doug Free.
46. Philadelphia: Lavonte David, LB, Nebraska
David is an active linebacker with good speed and instincts. The Eagles need a playmaker at the second level.
47. New York Jets: Ronnell Lewis, OLB, Oklahoma
After hitting with Kuechly in round one, the Jets come back and add a pass rusher in the second.
48. New England: Shea McClellin, OLB, Boise State
The Patriots continue to build on defense with a tough, versatile and aggressive pass rusher in McClellin.
49. San Diego: Bobby Massie, T, Mississippi
Massie is quietly one of the fastest risers in the draft. He’s athletic and would be an immediate starter on a weak Chargers offensive line.
50. Chicago: Brandon Brooks, G, Miami (Ohio)
Chris Williams is a bust, and Mike Tice needs to beef up this o-line. Brooks is extremely athletic for his size and would start from day one.
51. Philadelphia: Brandon Boykin, CB, Georgia
Boykin is undersized, but tough against the run and can make plays on the ball. Asante Samuel is on his way out.
52. Tennessee: Kelechi Osemele, G, Iowa State
Osemele has a chance to be drafted much higher, but the Titans will gladly take him to beef up their interior.
53. Cincinnati: Doug Martin, RB, Boise State
Martin could very well be the best running back behind Trent Richardson. He’ll complete a totally re-built offense for the Bengals.
54. Detroit: Jayron Hosley, CB, Virginia Tech
Hosley is a playmaker and comes from a great program.
55. Atlanta: Chandler Jones, DE, Syracuse
Jones is a guy with a lot of growth potential. The defensive end class isn’t very deep so the Falcons need to take the best guy left.
56. Pittsburgh: Mitchell Schwartz, OT, California
The Steelers are moving last year’s second-rounder Marcus Gilbert to left tackle. Schwartz can step right in and play on the right side, giving the Steelers two bookends.
57. Denver: Trumaine Johnson, CB, Montana
Champ Bailey and Andre Goodman’s days as corners are numbered. Johnson had a great combine and solidified himself as a top-10 corner in this draft.
58. Houston: Jared Crick, DE, Nebraska
Once pegged as a first rounder, Crick falls after an injury-plagued senior year. He could be a nice replacement for Antonio Smith when he’s done.
59. New Orleans: Brandon Thompson, DT, Clemson
I think Thompson will get drafted higher than this, but it’s hard to find a spot for him because he’s fairly limited as a 4-3, one-gap penetrator. The Saints are cleaning house at defensive tackle and need someone to play next to Sedrick Ellis.
60. Green Bay: LaMichael James, RB, Oregon
A sneaky pick by the Packers who need some talent in the backfield. James would be an ideal fit in their spread system.
61. Baltimore: Mychal Kendricks, LB, California
Undersized, but tested off the charts at the combine and has the production to back it up. He would be Ray Lewis’ successor.
62. San Francisco: Zebrie Sanders, OT, Florida State
Anthony Davis has been disappointing after the 49ers used a top-15 pick on him. Sanders hasn’t had a great offseason, but should still go in the second round.
63. New England: Marvin Jones, WR, California
After adding a corner and two front-seven players, New England addresses its wide receiver need with Jones, a big, strong wideout who has the burst and short-area quickness the Patriots covet.
64. New York Giants: Orson Charles, TE, Georgia
He could have gone in round one, but ran a disappointing time at his Pro Day. He’s a talented h-back type who would give Eli another weapon in the passing game.
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