2013 Pre-Season Preview: Oregon Ducks

2012 Record: 12-2 (7-1 in Pac-12)

Head Coach: Mark Helfrich (first time head coach)

Last Bowl Game: 2013 Fiesta Bowl: beat Kansas State 35-17

Stadium: Autzen Stadium in Eugene, OR (capacity = 53,800)

Home Field Advantage: ranked 16th out of 69 BCS teams

Schedule Glimpse:

2013 Schedule Link

Out of Conference: 8/31 vs Nicholls St, 9/7 at Virginia, 9/14 vs Tennessee

Toughest Home Games: 10/26 vs UCLA, 10/29 vs Oregon State

Toughest Road Games: 10/12 at Washington, 11/7 at Stanford, 11/23 at Arizona

Statistical Snapshot:

2012 Statistics Link

Stat to Fear: still looking…the offense doesn't stay on the field long enough to give the defense enough rest?

Stats to Cheer: gained 40 turnovers in 2012 (1st in Pac-12), converted on 46.43% of third downs (1st in Pac-12), had 21 rushing plays of 30 yards or more (1st in Pac-12), held opponents to 49.02% TD rate in red zone (1st in Pac-12)

Advanced Stats (Football Outsiders 2012 FEI Ranking): 13th out of 124 teams

Personnel:

Phil Steele's Returning Starters: Offense: 8, Defense: 7, Special Teams: 1

Key Defensive Returnees: DE Taylor Hart (8 sacks), CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu (63 tackles, 4 INT), CB Terrrance Mitchell (40 tackles), S Erick Dargan (54 tackles, 5 INT), S Brian Jackson (69 tackles)

Key Offensive Returnees: QB Marcus Mariota (2677 yds pass, 68.5% completions, 32 TD, 6 INT, 752 yds rush), RB De'Anthony Thomas (701 yds rush, 7.62 ypc, 11 TD, 45 rec), RB Byron Marshall (447 yds rush, 5.14 ypc), WR Josh Huff (32 rec), TE Colt Lyerla (25 rec)

Top 2013 Recruits: RB Thomas Tyner, LB Tyrell Robinson, ATH Tyree Robinson, WR Darren Carrington, S Chris Seisay

Verdict:

The biggest question-mark for the Ducks looks to be the coaching change. Chip Kelly flirted with the NFL for a while and finally took the jump last year leaving offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich to take over as the head man in Eugene. Maybe the best news for Oregon is that Nick Aliotti remains on the defensive side of the football so that will help the Ducks remain consistent during the changeover.

What can you say about the Oregon offense? They are the most dynamic, exciting team to watch in college football and if you are a defensive coordinator, they keep you up at night. As a freshman, Marcus Mariota was better than anyone could have imagined as he threw 32 TDs against just 6 INTs and had a completion percentage of 68.5%. He also ran for over 700 yards at 7.09 ypc. Kenjon Barner moves on to the next phase of his career but there is plenty of talent left in the Ducks backfield. De'Anthony Thomas is a multi-threat player who can beat you on the ground, in the air and on Special Teams. If Thomas gets more touches this year, which he should, he should vault into the Heisman talk especially if Oregon can stay undefeated. What Oregon will need on offense is a RB to fill the spot of Kenjon Barner and be the yin to Thomas's yang. The most likely suspect is Byron Marshall. If you caught a pass for the Ducks last year, odds are you are returning this year. The Ducks return six of their top seven reception leaders losing only Barner. The only spot on offense that looks like it might be a question-mark for the Ducks is the OL as they must replace two full-time starters and one part-timer. They do return five players who have starting experience although two of those players have started just two games each. Depth could be an issue and it might take a while for the guard play to get to where it needs to be but they should be more than competent along the line.

Statistically, Oregon's defense is never going to be thought of as one of the best in Nation but the fact that they allowed just 21.6 ppg last year with how fast their offense plays is extremely good. Oregon rotates a ton of defensive linemen in and out during the game so the loss of Dion Jordan (5 sacks) and Isaac Remington shouldn't have too much of an impact. The Ducks return ten players on the line who made tackles last season. LB will be a bit different as the Ducks must replace Michael Clay and Kiko Alonso. Oregon has players at this position who have played different roles for them but now they have to step up and be leaders of the team. If you are looking for the big question-mark about Oregon, this could be it. The secondary remains in tact and should be equal to last year if not better. Overall, the defense will depend on the LB corps and if new stars can step up in that area.

When I look at Oregon, I see a team that is definitely in the running for the National Championship and in fact should be one of the favorites to reach the big game. When you look at the schedule, the Ducks should go 5-0 right out of the gate without too much resistance. The first test should be at Washington on October 12th and Oregon has handled them pretty well over the last several years. The schedule gets tougher down the stretch as the Ducks close with UCLA, at Stanford, Utah, at Arizona and then Oregon State. That's the toughest stretch of the season and the back-to-back games with UCLA and Stanford will be key. The Good news is that the Ducks have a week and a half between those two critical games. Expect Oregon to be a fixture in the top five this season and a contender for the National Title. Circle the date of the "Civil War" game against Oregon State on your calendar. If Oregon hosts Oregon State with a NCG on the line, that is going to be one pressure packed game.

Prediction: 11-1

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