2012 Record: 8-4 (6-2 in Big Ten)
Head Coach: Bill O’Brien (second year at Penn State)
Last Bowl Game: 2011 TicketCity Bowl: lost to Houston 30-14
Stadium: Beaver Stadium in University Park, PA (capacity = 107,282)
Home Field Advantage: ranked 22nd out of 69 BCS teams
Schedule Glimpse:
Out of Conference: 8/31 vs Syracuse, 9/7 vs EMU, 9/14 vs UCF, 9/21 vs Kent State
Toughest Home Games: 10/12 vs Michigan, 11/23 vs Nebraska
Toughest Road Games: 10/26 at Ohio State, 11/30 at Wisconsin
Statistical Snapshot:
Stats to Fear: gave up 225 yards passing per game (8th in B1G)
Stats to Cheer: only turned the ball over 13 times in 2012 (3rd in B1G), had 33 sacks in 2012 (1st in B1G), held opponents to 65.85% in red zone (1st in B1G)
Advanced Stats (Football Outsiders 2012 FEI Ranking): 31st out of 124 teams
Personnel:
Phil Steele’s Returning Starters: Offense: 8, Defense: 6, Special Teams: 2
Key Defensive Returnees: LB Glenn Carson (85 tackles), LB Mike Hull (58 tackles), DE Deion Barnes (5 sacks, 27 tackles), S Malcolm Wills (45 tackles)
Key Offensive Returnees: RB Zach Zwinak (1000 yds rush, 4.93 ypc, 6 TD), WR Allen Robinson (77 rec, 11 TD), TE Kyle Carter (36 rec), WR Brandon Moseby-Felder (31 rec)
Top 2013 Recruits: QB Christian Hackenberg, TE Adam Breneman, DE Garrett Sickels, OT Andrew Nelson, QB Tyler Ferguson
Inside Scoop with Kevin McGuire of Nittany Lions Den:
CFBZ: How was Bill O’Brien able to keep this team together last year after all the off the field issues, losses of talent and the poor start?
Kevin McGuire: If there is one thing I have learned about Bill O’Brien since being introduced as head coach in January 2012, it may be that he is determined and focused on the larger picture as opposed to worrying over smaller issues. Starting off the season 0-2 could have led to the disaster of a season many seemed to envision, but O’Brien was determined to focus on the positives and build off of those moving forward. At the time it seemed like little more than coach-speak, but O’Brien also had great leadership shine on his first team, which should have been expected given the circumstances. Those who stayed were extra motivated to overcome through adversity, and that helped O’Brien spread his message to the team, which was not to let a game go by leaving anything on the field since Penn State only had 12 games to play.
While he lost some key players to transfers (Silas Redd to USC, Justin Brown to Oklahoma, Anthony Fera to Texas to highlight the transfer losses), O’Brien breathed new life in to a stale offensive system and allowed young players to grow in to roles. With nothing to lose really, O’Brien was more willing to take chances, and I think that sent a message to his team that they were going to have fun while also competing at a new level.
CFBZ: Matt McGloin really blossomed under O’Brien’s leadership but he’s exhausted his eligibility. Who will step up in his place?
Kevin McGuire: The 2013 season will be extremely raw at quarterback but the two main options are junior college transfer Tyler Ferguson and five star freshman Christian Hackenberg. Both bring good size under center as well as a solid arm. They may not be the most mobile of quarterbacks, but neither was McGloin. Fortunately O’Brien’s offense is not centered on having an extremely mobile quarterback the way some other teams are. For either to be successful they must pick up the offense quickly and find a rhythm. with their tight ends and go to wide receiver Allen Robinson. There should be enough talent surrounding whoever is named the starter to help ease the transition and as the season progresses I would imagine O’Brien will try throwing more their way.
Hackenberg has loads of potential and carries a better arm based on what I have heard, but Ferguson was with the team in the spring for practices and the spring game. If I had to guess today I might lean toward Ferguson getting the nod for week one against Syracuse but I can definitely see the logic in going with Hackenberg right out of the gates and see what you can build around him.
CFBZ: What are the biggest opportunities for this team as they head into the 2013 season?
Kevin McGuire: Quarterback inexperience and all-around depth concerns aside, I think the biggest concern for Penn State in 2013 might be on special teams in general. Anyone who watched Penn State last season should not be shocked by this. Penn State ranked last in the Big Ten in kick return average, 11th in punting average, and converted just 14 of 21 field goal attempts. This is one area of the team that absolutely needs to improve if Penn State is going to remain competitive during the remainder of their sanction period. Punter Alex Butterworth has been working on trying to improve his leg strength, although O’Brien has suggested there is still plenty of room to improve in this category. Last season kicker Sam Ficken had a storied terrible start to the season but he did end the season hitting ten consecutive field goal attempts and his last missed extra point attempt came in week three against Navy to boost his confidence.
There will be plenty of opportunities for players to shine on special teams, as O’Brien is giving a handful of players an opportunity to return kicks, but one of the main positions that could be ready for some new role players will be in the secondary, a position I actually feel somewhat optimistic about. I suspect Adrian Amos and Malcolm Willis will really emerge this season with starting experience behind them but O’Brien made sure to make note of the progress made by converted wide receiver Trevor Williams and Jordan Lucas. Both are being thought of as potential starters somewhere in the secondary, whether at corner or a safety position.
CFBZ: What will make the 2013 season a success in your eyes?
Kevin McGuire: Penn State won eight games last year and appears to have enough starting talent to be capable of reaching that win total again this year. My concerns would be on the depth and getting off to a good start with a new, inexperienced quarterback. The non-conference schedule should actually be pretty challenging with a neutral site game against Syracuse in MetLife Stadium and home games against Central Florida and Kent State — each should be able to give Penn State a good threat early on. The Big Ten slate also includes road trips to Ohio State and Wisconsin and home games against Michigan and Nebraska, so it could be a real challenge to get back to eight wins. I think if they can match that win total from 2012 that would be considered a success.
I have Penn State as a six-win team because I think at some point depth may become a problem, but in spite of that predicted outcome I think success needs to be looked at in two different ways. Penn State may win just six games, but if Hackenberg and other young players continue to develop, the future could look pretty decent and that could be a success as well.
Verdict:
After getting out of the gates 0-2 after a home loss to Ohio and a road loss to Virginia, it looked like the Nittany Lions were in for a rough season. Bill O’Brien was able to rally the troops and finished the season winning 8 of 10 including wins over Northwestern (then #24) and Rose Bowl bound Wisconsin. This year, O’Brien faces another set of challenges including depth issues and uncertainty at QB.
Will it be Tyler Ferguson or Christian Hackenberg? As we go to press it’s still an unknown but my guess is that both will get their chances this year. There is less uncertainty at RB with Zach Zwinak returning. After rushing for just seven yards as a freshman, Silas Redd’s exit opened an opportunity and Zwinak capitalized on it finishing seventh in the B1G in rushing yards per game (5th if you only count RBs). When you look at the offense, the WR group is the best unit as they return eight players that caught double-digit passes including star WR Allen Robinson and rising soph TE Kyle Carter. The OL is thin returning just two players with double-digit starts on their record.
Last year, Penn State allowed just 3.54 ypc on the ground and despite losing Jordan Hill and Sean Stanley, the DL looks to be the strength of this defense with Deion Barnes and Anthony Zettel leading the way at DE. The Nittany Lions must replace both Gerald Hodges and Michael Mauti at LB. There is talent but the loss of those two leaves some interesting depth concerns. The DBs return three of their top five players and should be able to improve this year.
The out of conference schedule isn’t a bear but it’s also not easy as there are a lot of “roll up your sleeves” type games and if the Nittany Lions play like they did at the beginning of last year then they will be saddled with an early loss or two. The conference schedule features two tough road games and two tough home games. My gut tells me not to under-estimate O’Brien and this team but my head tells me to watch the depth issues.
Prediction: 8-4
Previous 2013 Pre-Season Previews:
ACC- Boston College, Clemson, Duke, FSU, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Miami, NC State, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, UNC, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Big 12- Baylor, Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Texas, Texas Tech, WVU
Big Ten- Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue,Wisconsin
C-USA- ECU, FAU, FIU, Louisiana Tech, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, North Texas, Rice, Southern Miss, Tulsa, Tulane, UAB, UTEP, UTSA
Independent: Army, BYU, Idaho, Navy, New Mexico St, Old Dominion
MAC- Akron, Ball State, Bowling Green, Buffalo, CMU, EMU, Kent State, Miami (OH), Ohio, Toledo, UMass, WMU
MWC- Air Force, Boise St, Colorado St, Fresno St, Hawaii, Nevada, New Mexico, SDSU, SJSU, UNLV, Utah St, Wyoming
Pac-12- Arizona, Cal, Colorado, Oregon St, UCLA, USC, Utah, Washington, Washington St
SEC- Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Sun Belt- Arkansas State, Georgia State, Louisiana, South Alabama, Texas State, Troy, ULM, WKU
The American- Cincinnati, Houston, Louisville, Memphis, Rutgers, SMU, Temple, UCF, UConn, USF
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