2012 Record: 8-4 (5-3 in ACC)
Head Coach: Larry Fedora (second year at UNC, 42-23 All-Time)
Last Bowl Game: 2011 Independence Bowl: lost to Missouri 41-24
Stadium: Kenan Memorial Stadium in Chapel Hill, NC (capacity = 62,980)
Home Field Advantage: ranked 25th out of 69 BCS teams
Schedule Glimpse:
Out of Conference: 8/29 at South Carolina, 9/7 vs Middle Tennessee, 9/28 vs ECU, 11/23 vs Old Dominion
Swing Games: 9/21 at Georgia Tech, 11/2 at NC State
Toughest Conference Games: 10/5 at Virginia Tech, 10/17 vs Miami (FL)
Statistical Snapshot:
Stat to Fear: most penalized team in ACC at 64.3 ypg
Stats to Cheer: only allowed 11 sacks in 2012 (1st in ACC), Increased ppg by 12.6 from 2011 to 2012
Advanced Stats (Football Outsiders 2012 FEI Ranking): 47th out of 124 teams
Personnel:
Phil Steele's Returning Starters: Offense: 6, Defense: 7, Special Teams: 1
Key Defensive Returnees: S Tre Boston (86 tackles, 4 INT), CB Jabari Price (76 tackles), CB Tim Scott (48 tackles, 4 INT), DE Kareem Martin (40 tackles, 4 sacks)
Key Offensive Returnees: QB Bryn Renner (3356 yds pass, 28 TD, 7 INT, 65.4% completions), RB AJ Blue (433 yds rush, 5.2 ypc, 9 TD), RB Romar Morris (386 yds rush, 5.59 ypc, 2 TD), WR Quinshad Davis (61 rec, 5 TD), TE Eric Ebron (40 rec, 4 TD)
Top 2013 Recruits:QB Mitch Trubisky, DE Dajaun Drennon, RB T.J. Logan, DT Greg Webb
Inside Scoop with Matthew Haley of Keeping It Heel:
CFBZ: After one year at the helm, what are your overall thoughts on Larry Fedora?
Matthew Haley: To begin with I was excited when Butch Davis was hired and I think when he was diagnosed with cancer he trusted John Blake which was his greatest mistake. Butch was going to have a conservative offense that would become more explosive as the recruits kept coming in. After Davis, the Tar Heels needed exactly what Larry Fedora brings with his fast paced offense. It has been 33 years since North Carolina won an ACC Championship so playing with style has attracted more casual fans. He is an honest no nonsense type coach that has a lot of energy and he is identifying and solidifying recruits early in the process. Think about how well he has recruited since he arrived despite having the sanctions against him. The Tar Heels already have seventeen commits for the 2014 class. His style of play is attracting top high school talent and after watching true freshman Quinshad Davis catch 61 balls last year within an offense that averages near 80 plays per game provides a lot of opportunities for players to show off their skills.
CFBZ: Who will the Tar Heels replace Giovani Bernard?
Matthew Haley: First the obvious answer is you don’t replace a Gio Bernard. The Bernard situation is similar to when Mack Brown went to Texas and had Ricky Williams. He did not replace Williams, but he increased the number of play makers on the team which elevated the program. Larry Fedora has to utilize all his weapons such as Davis, Eric Ebron, Romar Morris, AJ Blue, and watch out for Sean Tapley to have a big year. He started to finally understand the offense last year and he was a high prized recruit Butch Davis snagged from South Carolina last season. The Tar Heels also welcome TJ Thorpe back after a broken ankle that held him out all of 2012. Thorpe was a special teams play maker and should be explosive in the screen game Fedora loves to use.
CFBZ: Who needs to step up on the defensive side of the football?
Matthew Haley: Kareem Martin and Travis Hughes are both players that have NFL talent. NFL production will be the question, but I expect both to have a great year. Tre Boston needs to avoid the big mistakes of getting caught up looking in the backfield because he is such a good tackler and limit big plays in the air. All eyes will be on the defense to see how much growth will be had in year two under Vic Koening. Don’t forget the Tar Heels lost Sly Williams and Kevin Reddick to the NFL.
CFBZ: What will make the 2013 season a success in your eyes?
Matthew Haley: Russell Bodine’s health in my opinion is the most important piece of the offense having a year like Auburn did in Gus Malzahn’s second year as an offensive coordinator. Bodine is the heart of the front line and he and Bryn Renner have developed a strong bond that is a security blanket for any quarterback. Second is the entire defense and if they can put pressure on the quarterback from the front four. We all know you can create pressure with blitzes, but until the Tar Heel secondary shows they can shut down receivers one on one there has to be some confidence issues in the backfield.
Verdict:
In his first year, Larry Fedora took the offense to the next level as they increased from 28 ppg to 40.6. Now off of post-season probation, can Fedora take the Heels higher in year two?
Bryn Renner really blossomed in the offense last year as he built on a strong sophomore campaign. The biggest jump in numbers from him came in his TD:INT ratio as it improved from 2:1 to 4:1. This year Renner will have to run the offense without star RB Giovani Bernard. Bernard ran for 1228 yds and caught 47 passes and he was also a factor in the return game (two punt returns for TDs) so he will be missed on a lot of different levels. If you are a UNC fan you have been hearing about AJ Blue for a while. Now a senior, Blue should get the first shot at RB. Last year, Blue played well when given the opportunity as he ran for 433 yards on 82 carries and added 12 TDs. Another option at RB is Romar Morris and he ran for 386 last year at a clip of 5.59 ypc. Renner should have a good rapport with his receiving corps as he loses only Erik Highsmith (54 rec) off of last year's squad. The OL returns only 55 career starts but they have two really good building blocks in James Hurt and Russell Bodine.
The Tar Heels return a good amount of starters on defense but they will definitely miss Kevin Reddick and Sylvester Williams. Reddick was the second leading tackler, led the team in tackles for loss and also led the team in sacks. Williams anchored the DL as he was second on the team in sacks and third in tackles for loss. With the loss of those two players, the Tar Heels will be looking for some players to step up in the pass rush department. The DL should still be good as Williams is the only major loss on the unit. In Carolina's 4-2-5 the big question marks are on the back seven and especially the secondary as they struggled last season. If the Tar Heels can shore up that part of the defense they will be in the running for the ACC Coastal.
The schedule is front loaded for the Heels but if they can weather the storm then they should be able to finish strong. They open with the South Carolina Gamecocks in what will be a feature match-up of week one. Then they play Middle Tennessee and after that it's a four game stretch that will decide the season for the Heels. They play at Georgia Tech, host a powerful offensive squad in ECU, travel to Virginia Tech and then play Miami (FL). Three of those four games are the competition that UNC has for the Coastal division. Win two out of three of those games and the Heels will be the favorites for the Coastal crown. The schedule finishes up with BC, at NC State, vs Virginia, at Pitt, vs Old Dominion and vs Duke. There are some tough games in that stretch but none that should be as tough as GT, Miami or VT. In case you didn't notice, UNC doesn't have to play the best two teams in the ACC, Clemson and FSU. Neither does VT and that could make that the biggest game on the Heels schedule. I expect UNC to compete for the Coastal division title and if a couple of things go their way we could see them in the ACC Championship Game.
Prediction: 9-3
Previous 2013 Pre-Season Previews:
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