Steven’s 2013 Lottery Big Board v1.0

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We are in the dead period for lottery teams.  None of us are in the Playoffs, March Madness has ended, and the deadline has passed for underclassman to declare for the draft.  All we have to do now is debate the relative merits of a bunch of guys not quite (or just barely) old enough to buy a beer.  As such, we won’t have much Big Board movement until the Draft Combine begins on the 15th.

Marcus Smart was the only big name to return to school, so we only have a small update for now.  Expect more movement when the combine craziness begins!

1. Nerlens Noel (6’11” PF/C, Freshman)

While he did suffer a season-ending torn ACL, he did not have to deal with a poor NCAA Tournament showing like some of his contemporaries.  Assuming he heals properly, he projects to be the best player from this year’s draft class.

Best case scenario: Tyson Chandler

2. Ben McLemore (6’5” SG, Freshman)

McLemore had the most to gain by Noel’s injury.  Unfortunately, he finished the season in lackluster fashion by averaging just 11 points per game while shooting under 35% from the floor.  He still has a chance to be the top pick, but he’ll have to show well in workouts.

Best case scenario: Ray Allen

3. Anthony Bennett (6’7” PF, Freshman)

This is the big boom or bust player.  On one hand, he can score from anywhere, is a great athlete, and can gobble up rebounds when he puts his mind to it.  On the other, he’s undersized, has an iffy motor, and tends to space out.  If he can keep focused and give full effort, he can be a special player.

Best case scenario: Very poor man’s Charles Barkley

4. Otto Porter (6’8” SF, Sophomore)

Porter is the quintessential jack-of-all-trades player.  He doesn’t particularly excel at any one facet, but his ability to produce across the board allows him to be a difference maker.  While he may not ever be a top 25 player, he’ll be the type of guy every team wants.

Best case scenario: Tayshaun Prince

5. Victor Oladipo (6’5” SG, Junior)

A terrific athlete with a great motor, Oladipo is one of the few players in college capable of changing a game with his defensive ability.  He isn’t known as being a particularly adept scorer, but his shooting has seen much welcome improvement.

Best case scenario: Joe Dumars

6. Trey Burke (6’0” PG, Sophomore)

Fresh off winning numerous National POY awards, Burke helped lead his Michigan squad to the National Championship game.  He has an incredible feel for the game, equally capable of setting his teammates up and scoring at will.  He doesn’t possess typical size for a modern PG and tends to have cold spells, but he has the potential to be a very good player on the next level.

Best case scenario: Bigger, (much) better DJ Augustin

7. Shabazz Muhammad (6’6” SF/SG, Freshman)

At the start of the season, it was Shabazz-Mania.  He proved everyone right that said he could be a great scorer, but unfortunately hasn’t been able to display too much else of his game and has been involved in a number of personal issues to boot.  Teams will like his ability to get buckets, but he needs a lot of improvement before he becomes a top player.

Best case scenario: Jerry Stackhouse

8. Alex Len (7’1” C, Sophomore)

Len is an old school center.  He’s a big guy with sneaky athleticism who can score in the post, step out and hit a couple of jumpers and play solid post defense.  He’s still a raw player and tends to disappear at times, but he has the physical tools to be a top pick.

Best case scenario: Brook Lopez with better defense

9. Cody Zeller (7’0” PF, Sophomore)

One of the more skilled big men in college, Zeller has a lot of the tools in place to be a dependable scorer in the NBA.  Unfortunately, there are some red flags.  Most notably, his short arms have earned him the nickname “Z-Rex”.

Best case scenario: Lightweight Al Horford

10. Kelly Olynyk (7’0” C, Junior)

He may be a little under the radar to some, but Olynyk was a true force for a great Gonzaga team this year.  His scoring versatility really shined as he finished the season as the most efficient player in college.  He’s still learning how to play the game as a big man after a huge growth spurt, but he’s making great strides.

Best case scenario: Luis Scola

11. Michael Carter-Williams (6’5” PG, Sophomore)

Carter-Williams has a lot of upside.  He’s the type of pass-first point you don’t see very often anymore.  His size and sneaky athleticism will create matchup problems against smaller guys, but he really needs to work on his efficiency—especially in regards to the poor range on his jumper.

Best case scenario: Non-injured Shaun Livingston

12. Mason Plumlee (6’11” PF/C, Senior)

It may have taken longer than expected, but Plumlee grew into his potential this past season at Duke.  He’s always been a great athlete for his size, but he finally started displaying his all-around skill set.  Great rebounding, improved range on his jumper, and sneaky passing ability will make him a valuable player in the right situation.

Best case scenario: Better Jordan Hill

13. Dario Saric (6’10” SF/PF, Croatia)

Saric is a highly skilled player for his size and is considered one of the best European prospects within the past few years.  While he isn’t a top flight athlete, he’s intelligent enough to make plays, especially with the ball in his hands.  We won’t be able to make a final decision on him until closer to the draft, but he could shoot up some boards.

Best case scenario: Toni Kukoc

14.  Steven Adams (6’11” C, Pittsburgh)

The Big Kiwi has some of the most intriguing physical attributes in the draft.  He has a prototypical frame to go along with great athleticism that has manifested itself in a player who many believe can make a big impact on the pro level.  However, Adams is very raw and still learning the game, so he will need a patient team to develop his talents.  Teams will definitely be looking to take a risk on him in what projects to be a weak draft, especially if they believe he can become a dominant defensive player.

Best case scenario:  Somewhere in the Ibaka/Noah/Bogut mold

By Steven Weddington

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