The only news the Sixers have made this offseason is for things they haven’t done: they haven’t yet hired a coach, they haven’t been clear about the current CEO situation, and more relevant to Thursday night, they haven’t given any clear indication about what direction they’re leaning with the 11th overall pick (as well as their two second round picks at 35 and 42).
Mock drafts believe that if Cody Zeller falls to 11, that’s the direction the Sixers will head. Undoubtedly, the team needs more help on the frontline but is Zeller the answer? The Indiana star has a polished offensive game but scouts are projecting him to be more of a stretch four in the NBA based on positive jump shooting performances in draft workouts. However, Zeller rarely took catch-and-shoot jumpers in college, spending his team almost exclusively on the block, so there’s no certainty that will translate going forward. Defensively, while he showed great athleticism numbers in terms of speed and agility at the combine, Zeller sports a wingspan actually less than his 7’0″ frame. Want a more basketball-centric statistic? He was 327th in the nation last year in defensive rebounding percentage. So he doesn’t project as a strong shot blocker, defensive rebounder, and is talking about taking his offensive game more to the perimeter. When you boil it down, I would pass; I’ve seen enough soft big man play from Spencer Hawes to last three lifetimes.
So what strategy should the Sixers adopt? Analysts keep talking about how the talent in this draft is horizontal, rather than vertical, meaning after the first 7 or so players, there are good players out there, but no one is sure where they will go. Given the perceived depth of the draft over any surefire can’t-miss prospects, it makes more sense to load up on as many lottery tickets as possible. Here would be my gameplan:
1) Buy a first-round pick. Dallas is one team reported to be looking to unload their 13th pick in order to save cap space for a max free agent offer, but that seems overly ambitious. However, there are also teams toward the end of the first round who may be willing to part with a pick in order to save money given the ramped up luxury tax penalties. Players in the latter half of the first round are among those with the most team-friendly contracts a team can obtain. If you find a productive starter at an affordable salary, you can free more money up to go after a marquee free agent sometime down the road.
2) Trade down in the first round. On the flip side, there will always be someone trying to move up when a player they like starts sliding down the draft board. We saw the Sixers make a similar deal, getting back into the first round to select Arnett Moultrie by offering up a future first-round pick. Again, this draft is all about depth, and you’re just as likely to get a viable player at 21 or so as at 11. Try to get a lottery-protected first round pick in the purportedly loaded 2014 draft to move down a few spots.
3) Take Gorgui Dieng and Allen Crabbe with the two first round picks. Each of them has a clearly defined skill that should at the very least, give them a role on NBA teams for years to come. At worst, Dieng figures to be a great defensive center in the league. He was Big East (RIP) Defensive Conference Player of the Year and the backbone of Louisville’s first-ranked defense. His 7’4″ wingspan and leaping ability translate well in addition to the great instincts he displayed in college. He also wasn’t a complete stiff on the offensive end, showing decent hands and a serviceable mid-range jumper. If some team can mold him on the offensive end, Dieng’s ceiling goes even higher good defensive big man. Even if he’s just a good shotblocker though, that would be a breath of fresh air for the Sixers from a big man.
As for Crabbe, he projects as one of the top three-point shooters in the draft. Everything about his shooting form and range has scouts drooling over his potential in that department. His percentages weren’t overwhelming at Cal but as the focal point of the Golden Bears’ offense, defenses were swarming all over him. Afforded more open looks as a secondary option at the NBA level, Crabbe should thrive as a spot-up shooter from the perimeter. Also, at 6’6″ and with long arms, his size would not be a hindrance at the shooting guard position. There will always be spots in this league for great shooters and Crabbe fits the profile.
We will see what tricks new Sixers’ GM Sam Hinkie has up his sleeve. It’s Draft Night! Get excited!
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