Part of what makes the draft so much fun to watch and so difficult to predict is the fact that teams are able to shift positions via trade. Teams want to move up to secure a prospect high on their board or secure their “franchise quarterback”. Teams want to move down to get the best value for their pick by adding more draft selections.
In a draft class that is relatively even grade-wise throughout the first round, we could see a lot of movement, even in the Top 6 picks. And, with the quarterback class having the most “value” in the second round, we could see as many as three teams trade up from the 2nd round to secure their franchise quarterback.
1. Oakland Raiders Trade Down from #3
The Raiders are desperate to add talent throughout this roster. Now in his second off-season GM Reggie McKenzie is still feeling the frustrations of the past regime, as he’s without a 2nd round pick. They reportedly like Sharrif Floyd quite a bit (and he’s a fit for their defense) and likely would strongly consider Geno Smith if he’s there. However, with no second rounder, multiple needs to fill, and the potential value of the pick with a top left tackle (Eric Fisher), the best defensive prospects, and potentially Geno Smith still on the board, the Raiders could have ample trading partners.
Trades to Watch:
-Buffalo trades 2013 1st and 2nd rounder and 2014 2nd for #3 overall (Geno Smith)
-Detroit trades 2013 1st and 3rd rounder for #3 overall (Eric Fisher)
2. Cleveland Browns Trade Down from #6
New GM Michael Lombardi comes from the Bill Belichek school of thought (they respect each other’s’ opinions very much) of getting playmakers and maximum value for each pick. They Browns don’t have any glaring needs, and any pick at #6 would be a luxury. They could consider staying to take Dee Milliner or Tavon Austin, but more likely, they’ll try to trade this pick to pick up a 2nd rounder, especially when a top left tackle and/or Geno Smith is likely on the board. Also, if they trade back from #6 to the teens or early 20s, don’t rule out them trying to secure a franchise quarterback, with the likely target being EJ Manuel.
Trades to Watch:
-Buffalo/Arizona trades 2013 1st and 2nd rounder for #6 overall (Geno Smith)
-Miami/San Diego trades 2013 1st and 2nd rounder for #6 overall (Lane Johnson/Dee Milliner)
-St. Louis Rams trades both 2013 1st rounders for #6 overall (Tavon Austin/Cordarelle Patterson/Kenny Vaccaro)
3. St. Louis Rams Trade Up from #16 and #22
As I eluded to with the Browns trade down possibility, the Rams have some picks to play with this year, including two first rounders. They Rams could use some secondary help, offensive line help, and especially receiver aid for Sam Bradford. They could, however, try to get one of the draft’s best and package both picks up for a potential star player like Tavon Austin, Cordarelle Patterson, or Kenny Vaccaro.
Trades to Watch:
-St. Louis trades both 2013 1st rounders for #6 overall (Tavon Austin/Cordarelle Patterson/Kenny Vaccaro)
-St. Louis trades #16 pick, 3rd and 4th rounder for #9 overall to New York (Tavon Austin/Cordarelle Patterson)
-St. Louis trades #16 pick, 3rd rounder for #13 overall to Tampa Bay (Kenny Vaccaro/Jonathan Cyprien)
4. Minnesota Vikings Trade Up from #23 and #25
After trading Percy Harvin to Seattle, the Vikings have two first round picks to work with to both replace Harvin and add to their defense. Moving up for a top receiver is an option, but they should have plenty of options at 23 and 25, as that’s where the real value at receiver begins. However, adding a top linebacker could be an option, as well as adding a dynamic playmaker to replace Percy Harvin.
Trades to Watch:
-Minnesota trades #23 and #25 for #9 overall to New York (Tavon Austin/Cordarelle Patterson)
-Minnesota trades #23 and 2nd rounder for #15 overall to New Orleans (Arthur Brown)
5. Bills, Eagles, Cardinals, and Jets Trading Up Into First Round
I’d be surprised if two quarterbacks didn’t go in the Top 10 picks, with Geno Smith likely being one at Matt Barkley/Ryan Nassib/Tyler Wilson being the other. However, we could still see four go in the Top 32 picks thanks to the Eagles, Bills, Cardinals, and Jets all considering finding their franchise QB this year. The Colts at #24, the Texas at #27, and the #Patriots at 29 are the most likely suitors for teams trying to trade up for any prospect, especially quarterback.
Trades to Watch:
–Buffalo trades 2nd and 3rd rounders to 24-29 overall (Ryan Nassib/Matt Barkley)
-Philadelphia trades 2nd and 3rd rounders to 24-29 overall (EJ Manuel)
–Arizona trades 2nd and 3rd rounders to 24-29 overall (Tyler Wilson)
-New York (Jets) trade and 3rd rounders to 24-29 overall (Tyler Wilson/EJ Manuel/Matt Barkley)
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