The 2008 NFL Draft stands out from the rest of recent draft memory. With just one projected first round quarterback, viewed as a late first round value, and only a handful of “playmakers”, the draft was viewed as heavy on lineman early, both offensive and defensive.
If that sounds familiar at all, it’s becomes it’s remarkably similar to this 2013 draft class. Luke Joeckel may be this class’s Jake Long. Barkevious Mingo may be this class’s Vernon Gholston. And for comparison’s sake, Geno Smith hopes to be this class’s Matt Ryan.
Most didn’t view Matt Ryan as worthy of a top three pick, similar to the sentiments of many about Geno Smith. Despite the criticism, Ryan proved those evaluations wrong, nearly reaching the Super Bowl in his 5th NFL season. Geno Smith has that same potential. But like Ryan, Smith still has a ways to go to prove those doubters wrong.
After a 5-0 start to the season, including a win at Texas, Geno Smith was poised to go from “trendy sleeper” quarterback prospect to emerging star, with NFL teams watering at the mouth at the chance to draft him. A gaudy 81.4% completion percentage, 400 yards per game, and film that flashed consistent ball placement, lateral mobility, and great anticipation in post-snap reads, Geno Smith seized the opportunity to wow in the stat sheet and on film in his first and only Big 12 season.
But a 35 point loss at Texas Tech followed. Then another loss to Kansas State, this time by 41. Then two more losses to TCU and at Oklahoma State, followed by a one point loss to Oklahoma. Suddenly, Geno Smith wasn’t the Heisman favorite anymore, and began to register some doubts for teams that had expectedly high draft picks and shaky quarterback situations themselves. Geno Smith finished the 2012 season admirably, getting his team to a bowl game, but losing to fellow 2013 draft prospect Ryan Nassib.
Based on the stat sheet and record book, Geno Smith showed he couldn’t handle pressure, that he doesn’t have the NFL skill set at quarterback and that he doesn’t have what it takes to be a franchise NFL quarterback.
But based on film, Geno not only remained a potential franchise quarterback, but the best quarterback in this class.
Geno Smith can wow with his arm and feet, but two of his best qualities have nothing to do with his arm strength, his accuracy, or his athleticism. As I wrote in early October, It’s his composure and confidence that vaulted him to the top of draft boards. Those are two skill sets that not only can’t be taught, but are rare tools to find in a position that demands so much from a player.
Below the neck, Smith can do everything a quarterback needs to. His arm strength is more than good enough, as he flashed the deep ball many times this season thanks to the speedy Tavon Austin and (more so) Stedman Bailey at receiver. His ball placement and anticipation in 15-20 yard routes is fantastic, one of the better throwers in that area in recent drafts. His athleticism is obvious, but it’s more impressive on how he uses it. He moves within the pocket smoothly, adjusts his body to elude pressure and work outside the pocket, and doesn’t run unless it’s completely necessary.
Making great strides from his junior to senior year, Geno Smith has become comfortable with who he is as a passer, rarely forcing passes and developing a great understanding of touch, both vertically and in-between levels.
Geno Smith has a ways to go before he’s an NFL elite passer. He’ll need to clean up his footwork, especially in the pocket. He’ll need to work on driving off his back foot in shorter routes, especially if he begins to work under center more often. And he’ll need to adjust to the speed of the game, both in his internal clock in the pocket and to not having two receivers that can just run past everyone else.
His 2013 quarterback class competitors don’t make a strong case to overtake him. Matt Barkley of USC has arm strength and athletic upside concerns. Ryan Nassib of Syracuse doesn’t have an NFL ready deep ball, and isn’t consistent yet in his decision making. Tyler Wilson of Arkansas is a gutsy passer, but a poor 2012 season may worry teams. EJ Manuel of Florida State is fun to project in a zone read scheme, but he’s far from a finished product. Geno is, likely for most teams, clearly the top dog in this mediocre crew of quarterbacks.
Since 2001, a quarterback has been taken in the top four picks of every draft class. With the Jaguars, Raiders, and Eagles all in need of a franchise quarterback, it’ll be hard to imagine Geno Smith fall out of those top four selections.
However, following back to back draft classes that featured three of the rarest forms of quarterbacks in NFL history, fans of Top 10 teams are wondering: Does the West Virginia passer have the upside of Cam Newton, Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin?
The answer is no. Geno Smith isn’t any of those guys. He’s not as physical or possess as strong of an arm as Cam Newton. He’s not as smart as Andrew Luck. He’s not as fast as Robert Griffin. We’ve never seen quarterbacks in NFL history that are like those three passers.
So what can we expect from this controversial top quarterback? Here’s the best way I can put it for NFL fans who love comparisons: He’s Alex Smith now, and Aaron Rodgers (minus some arm strength) in the future. He can be an athletic game manager early in his career, with the upside of being a mobile, composed, and productive passer in the future.
Geno Smith may not be a flashed top four quarterback selection, and he still has much to prove on his path to becoming an NFL franchise quarterback, including his March 14th Pro Day. But if the Jaguars, Raiders, or Eagles take the risk on Geno Smith the way Atlanta did back in 2008, they could quickly reap the rewards to going all in on Geno Smith.
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