For the better part of the past two seasons, those of us looking ahead to the 2013 Draft have had Bjoern Werner slotted as a top fifteen talent in his class. But after an underwhelming performance at the Combine, many mock drafts across the country now have Werner slipping to the end of the first round. More than a few have him falling out of the first round altogether.
Will Werner see those predictions realized on Thursday? Or will the Florida State product hear his name called far earlier than many experts now think he will?
Admittedly, the numbers that Werner put up while in Indianapolis did nothing to help his draft status. His 4.83 second forty yard time and 31 inch vertical jump didn’t alleviate concerns some had about his speed and raised some worries about his explosiveness as well.
While the concern about his speed is legitimate, it wasn’t a new development for people who had watched Werner play. His high level of productivity at Florida State was never a result of simply outrunning opposing linemen. His forty time simply confirmed what most should have already known about Werner- he’s not an all-around elite athlete.
What was a little more concerning was the 31 inch vertical. For many this raised some concerns about his explosiveness and burst off the snap – a trait that is essential for any defensive end that is going to be successful rushing the passer in the NFL.
But although the concerns about his speed are legitimate, the worries about his explosion off the snap simply aren’t. Even a quick glance at any of his game tape shows that Werner consistently gets off the ball quicker than both his fellow defensive linemen and the offensive tackle lined up opposite him. The reality is that not only should there be no question marks about his explosiveness, as it’s actually one of his strengths.
Werner’s stock has “fallen” in the eyes of the media while pass rushers with better measurable has quickly risen up those same boards. A good example is Barkevious Mingo, who as an athletic freak has consistently been slotted in the top ten selections in the majority of most mock drafts.
It’s true that Werner doesn’t have that same raw speed that players like Mingo possess, but he did have substantially more production during his career. In his time at Florida State, Werner recorded 35 tackles for loss and 23.5 sacks. In that same time frame, Mingo only got to the quarterback 15 times. Even Mingo’s production was better than other athletic prospects like Dion Jordan and Ziggy Ansah, who totaled 14.5 sacks and 4.5 sacks respectively. While their production may have been limited due to the system they were in – but for anyone outside of Werner you'll have to do a bit of projecting to decide what sort of production you're going to get out of the other top defensive end prospects.
Thanks to his burst off the snap, great use of his hands, and some remarkable instincts, Werner out produced all of these more athletic prospects and is far more refined than any of them. He may not have quite the same ceiling that someone like Mingo has, but it’s more than reasonable to expect Werner to be a player that can record in the neighborhood of 12 sacks a season in the NFL.
Another advantage that Werner has over his fellow defensive ends is that he may very well be the only other top defensive end that teams can feel comfortable playing on all three downs from day one of his career. Mingo and Jordan will initially be quite vulnerable against the run and likely will never be players that will be force teams to run to the opposite side of the formation. On the other side of the equation, Ansah should be able to contribute against the run immediately but will likely need a year to develop as a pass rusher.
In a draft that lacks few “sure things” at the top but has a surplus of unpolished, long term projects, it'll be surprising to see a player like Werner slip as far as he's been projected to recently. He's got the potential to be an outstanding defensive end, and, unlike the rest of the defensive ends at the top of this class, it's tough to imagine a scenario where he ends up being a total bust. Any team in need of help at defensive end will likely consider him, and it's unlikely he falls out of the top 15.
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