At long last, the NFL playoffs are finally upon us. As usual, the wildcard weekend provides us with some interesting match-ups and the potential for some playoff-altering upsets. In the AFC the surging Bengals will travel to Houston on Saturday, and on Sunday the Colts take on Baltimore. Both promise to be entertaining games. What match-ups could end up deciding them?
Cincinnati at Houston – Saturday, 4:30 pm
This game is a rematch from last year's wild-card round, but outside of the two teams involved it bears little resemblance to the game that saw Houston earn their first every playoff victory last season. In the 2012 match-up, Houston was on a surprising hot streak led by rookie quarterback TJ Yates. This season however, the Texans have stumbled into the playoffs, failing to meet the lofty expectations of gaining home field advantage. Can Houston snap out of their 1-3 finish, or will Cincinnati win on the road and gain revenge for last season's loss?
Key Match-Ups to Watch
Cincinnati DTs Geno Atkins and Pat Sims vs. Houston's Interior OL
After a dismal stretch, Cincinnati is now starting to make a habit of getting into the playoffs, but they still haven't managed to earn a playoff win since 1990. They've got a good of a chance as ever against a slumping Houston team. Will Pat Sims, who will be playing in his first playoff game with the Bengals, be a part of what pushes the Bengals over the top?
Those that didn't know before have learned this season that Geno Atkins might just be the best 4-3 defensive tackle in the league, and were in not for JJ Watt he might be the best defensive lineman in the league, period. His 12.5 sacks would lead defensive tackles in a typical year, but in 2012 he became more than just a pass rusher. He's grown into a strong run defender as well, and he'll need to be, considering that Arian Foster will be on the other side of the ball.
The key to this game however, just might be Sims. His role is not as diverse as Atkins is, but in this case it may be more important. Sims is a designated run stopper, and he's darn good at what he does. He's been sorely missed in a prolonged absence due to an ankle injury. It kept him out of last year's playoff game where Foster ran wild, and since he returned to the Bengals' lineup in week 8 they've gone 7-1. Will he slow Foster down, and improve that record to 8-1?
Houston WR Andre Johnson vs. Cincinnati's Secondary
Arian Foster wasn't the only Texan to tear through Cincinnati's defense in last year's wildcard game. Andre Johnson did his fair share of damage as well, racking up ninety yards on five catches and scoring a touchdown.
During the first half of this season Johnson looked like he was finally starting to slow down, but he's actually has more success during the second half of the season even though the rest of his team has been in a slump. He's been seeing close to 14 targets a game in recent weeks and typically is catching between 5 and 9 passes a game over the last half of the season.
Even though he's on a hot streak, he'll have a tough match up when facing the Bengals' secondary. As the 7th ranked pass defense in the NFL, they don't give up much through the air. Leon Hall has had a great season, and neither Terrance Newman nor Adam Jones are pushovers in the defensive backfield either. Johnson is more than capable of beating any of them, but it'll take a great effort.
Rookie Watch
Cincinnati LB Vontaze Burfict
Vontaze Burfict has been one of the best stories of the season, rising from being a nearly untouchable prospect in April to being a big time contributor to the Bengals' defense, especially in stopping the run.
He's racked up 30 tackles in the past five games alone, and has continued his development on a week to week basis.
The Bengals are going to need Burfict to have another strong performance against the run this weekend, as last time these two teams met up Arian Foster ran for 153 yards and two touchdowns.
Burfict will need to play smart and disciplined football, controlling his gap while still making aggressive moves to the runner in order to keep the Texans' ground game under control.
Prediction
Being successful in the postseason often depends of peaking at the right time, and that just doesn't bode well for Houston. Their best football of the season is far behind them, and on the flip side the Bengals are playing with a ton of confidence.
Cincinnati 24, Houston 17
Indianapolis at Baltimore – Sunday, 1 pm
There may not be a more emotionally loaded game this year than this one. Indianapolis head coach Chuck Pagano will be making just his second appearance at the helm since his return from leukemia treatments. Pagano will also be returning to Baltimore, where he spent the last several years as a defensive coaching, forming strong bonds with Ravens on both sides of the ball. And oh yeah, there is that small matter of Ray Lewis announcing to his teammates and the city of Baltimore that he'll be retiring at the end of the season. Emotions will be high prior to kickoff, but once the game starts, which team will come out on top?
Key Match-Ups to Watch
Indianapolis QB Andrew Luck vs. Baltimore LB Ray Lewis & S Ed Reed
As a quarterback, Making your first playoff start is a challenging task, regardless of how long you've been in the league. Making that first start on the road, as a rookie, against two future hall of fame defensive players? That's even more difficult. So was taking a team that was 2-14 in the previous season to the playoffs, however, so we shouldn't assume that Andrew Luck has no chance in this game.
Much of Luck's success this season has come off of his play action fakes, but it's going to be pretty difficult to bait guys like Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. Luck has victimized much more inexperienced players in his own division all season long. Lewis and Reed won't be so easily tricked, and it will take one of Luck's best performances to best two of the league's wisest veterans.
Luck needs at least an average game from his running backs to help boost the threat of play action, but he'll also be looking for yet another stellar outing from his top target Reggie Wayne, as well as rookie tight end Dwayne Allen. Wayne will be the toughest assignment for Baltimore's defense, as he's played all three receiver spots during this season and it's difficult to predict where he'll line up on a given play.
Allen should benefit from the extra attention paid to Wayne, and he needs to capitalize on that, as well as Baltimore's aging linebacking corps. Strong games from these two will give both Luck and the Colts more than a fighting chance in this game.
Indianapolis' Front Seven vs. Baltimore RB Ray Rice
Baltimore fans have most of the 2012 season wondering why star running back Ray Rice hasn't been featured as much as he should have been throughout the season. Since the Ravens jettisoned Cam Cameron a few weeks ago, the hope has been that Rice would return to his well deserved role carrying the offense, instead of being a second thought behind Joe Flacco's less-than-consistent passing.
The best route of attack against the Colts is on the ground, and there should be little question that the Ravens' game plan will be built on that fact. We know that Rice is one of the better backs in the league and he'll be able to take advantage of whatever holes are paved for him. One key in this match-up will be to see if Michael Oher will be able to establish momentum against the Colts' linebackers. Oher has been pushed around far too often in the run game this year and for most of the season has been the clear weak link in the running game. Can he stop that trend on Sunday?
As Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc pointed out, Rice isn't just a factor in the rushing game. He can play a big role in the passing game regardless of the match-up, but Baltimore should especially look to have him running routes in space while isolated with Indianapolis' linebackers. It's a battle Rice should win more often than not, and it'd provide Flacco with a reliable option.
Rookie Watch
Indianapolis WR/KR T.Y. Hilton
On paper, Baltimore should handle Indianapolis pretty easily. They have more talent and experience, and have the added emotional boost of Ray Lewis' looming retirement. However, big plays on offense and special teams are the great equalizer in the playoffs, and T.Y. Hilton can make those sorts of big plays in both phases of the game.
Hilton has scored six touchdowns of 35 yards or more, making him the clear big play threat on the Colts roster. He's scored catching the ball and returning punts, had five games with 100 yards of offense, and overall he averages 14.9 yards per touch. He's caught 50 passes this season as well, showing he's more than just a deep threat and can turn short catches into big plays as well.
Baltimore's primary focus will be (and should be) on Reggie Wayne – but they can't allow Hilton to break loose. If they do, don't be surprised if Hilton makes the play that ends up deciding this match-up.
Prediction
Indianapolis' success and rallying around their head coach has been one of the most enjoyable stories of the season, but it's hard to imagine the story continuing this weekend. You can never truely rule a team like this out, but Baltimore has the playoff experience and talent needed to win a wildcard match-up.
Baltimore 27, Indianapolis 17
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