2012 Record: 10-3 (5-2 in Big East; 6-1 home; 4-2 away)
Head Coach: Tommy Tuberville (first year at Cincy; 130-77 overall)
Last Bowl Game: 2012 Belk Bowl: defeated Duke 48-34
Stadium: Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio (capacity: 35,000)
Notable alumni: Brent Celek, Isaiah Pead, Derek Wolfe
Schedule:
Big Games: 8/31 vs. Purdue, 9/7 at Illinois, 11/16 at Rutgers, 12/5 vs. Louisville
2012 Overview:
Football Outsiders 2012 FEI Ranking: 20th out of 124 teams
Pro: 83.4 percent red zone success
Con: allowed 3,282 passing yards
Personnel:
Returning starters: offense: 8; defense: 6; specialists: 1
Players to watch: QB Brendon Kay; OLs Austen Bujnoch, Eric Lefeld, Sam Longo and Dan Sprague; RBs Ralph David Abernathy, Tion Green and Rodriquez Moore; WR Anthony McClung; DL Jordan Stepp; LBs Greg Blair, Jeff Luc and Nick Temple; DB Deven Drane; and K Tony Miliano
Insider’s view with Matt Opper of Down the Drive, SBNation’s UC blog:
CFBZ: The Bearcats last three head coaches are now at Michigan State (Mark Dantonio), Notre Dame (Brian Kelly) and Tennessee (Butch Jones) respectively. Needless to say, Cincinnati has enjoyed some quality leadership from coaches on the rise in recent history. The hiring of Tommy Tuberville is a bit of an enigma. He has an impressive resume having coached in both the Big XII and SEC, but the hiring seems a bit out of character. How is the change being accepted?
Matt Opper: Fantastically. For the last decade the Bearcats have gone with the strategy of attaching their fortunes to rising stars in the hope that as they rise they will drag the football program along with it. It has obviously been a resounding success. Dantonio left and has gone to lead Michigan State to their best run since the Saban era. Kelly has brought Notre Dame back to prominence — and real prominence — not the fake kind of the Charlie Weis era. Jones will probably succeed at Tennessee. Each of them left the program in better shape than they found it, but in slightly different ways. But for all the good that those three men did, they still left after three years. Rather than risk a potential kragthorpeing by reaching to the mid major well one time too many Whit Babcock went with Tuberville. That Tuberville said yes is a testament to what the guys before him did, 10 years ago a coach with a similar profile would never have looked at UC as a place where they could settle down, but that is exactly what Tuberville appears to be doing.
CFBZ: Brandon Kay eclipsed Munchie Legaux as starting quarterback in week eight last year. The two seniors are back in 2013 and expected to compete for the starting spot in Eddie Gran’s offense. How is the battle taking shape and how will the offensive scheme differ from last year?
Matt Opper The differences between last year’s offense and this one will be cosmetic only. Partly that is down to personnel (UC has eight receivers who have been in the rotation in the past, only one tight end has seen game action). A smart offensive coordinator will use what he has, and what UC has is a bunch of smallish quark-like receivers and backs who can abuse defenders in space, but not a ton of the big physical receivers who are best at making contested catches in traffic. Next year that might be different, but this year the personnel might not completely match what Gran has in mind. Regardless he has an experienced quarterback, a solid if unspectacular receiving core, and some weapons at running back. All of which will be operating behind what is by far the best offensive line in the conference.
CFBZ: Cincinnati has real depth/experience on the defensive side of the ball, particularly at linebacker where Greg Blair is a legitimate defensive player of the year candidate. Again, there is a new coordinator, Art Kaufman, who followed Tuberville. What do you expect from the defense in 2013?
Matt Opper: The linebackers should be great with Blair, Jeff Luc and Nick Temple forming the best line backing core in the conference. The secondary should be good as well. There are only two starters returning, but UC played a ton of defensive backs a year ago, so no one will be thrown into the fire without some experience. The question of how good this defense can be comes down to the front. Three players with starting experience come back at tackle, but there has been a complete reset at defensive end. The only end with game experience is the excellently named Silverberry Mouhon. He showed flashes, but not a ton of production. There are a couple of JUCO’s who look promising, but nothing proven. That is the major concern. If this line can get pressure like the 2011, (158 tackles for loss + sacks), 2009 (147 TFL + sacks), 2007 (137 TFL+ sacks), and 2008 (134 (TFL + sacks) lines did this defense could easily rank in the top 15 nationally in scoring again. If they can’t it could get really ugly on the back end.
CFBZ: The Bearcats schedule has two of its toughest matchups in the final three weeks: at Rutgers (Nov. 16) and vs. Louisville (Dec. 5) in the final Keg of Nails matchup (Cincy leads 30-21-1). Do you see any potential traps or pitfalls in this year’s schedule?
Matt Opper: It’s the one in between those two that concerns me: Houston. It’s a classic trap game, after the (presumptive) final match up with Rutgers, and before the End of Keg game. It’s a road game, against a program UC hasn’t played since 2002. It will also be played at Rice stadium because Houston’s stadium is closed for renovations. Rice Stadium is a 70,000 seat stadium that hasn’t come close to being filled to capacity in decades, it promises to be extra sleepy with a rival team playing as the home team. Everything about this is weird, and weird is bad.
Pete’s Bottom Line:
Cincinnati has claimed at least a share of four Big East Conference titles over the last five seasons. It has enjoyed strong quarterback play as well as solid running and defense. The coaching has been tremendous.
The switch to Tommy Tuberville should bring a definite change in offensive scheme. While his Texas Tech team was at the top of FBS programs with 4,600 passing yards in 2012, Tuberville likes a balanced attack. He’ll likely switch to a pro-style offense. The tailback figures to be Ralph David Abernathy, but keep an eye out for JUCO transfer Rodriguez Moore.
Though the Bearcats have had success carrying the football from the spread formation in recent years, the power style running game that Tuberville is likely to implement will be an adjustment. All five starters on the offensive line return, but they were all recruited for a different scheme.
The defense is unquestionably talent laden, and should buoy the team if the offense struggles to find its rhythm.
Tuberville has a reputation for winning the big games, and he’ll have all season to prepare for Louisville. If the Bearcats avoid missteps they should be in bowl position or better by the Dec. 5 finale. An upset of the Cardinals would really tip the season in the American’s inaugural campaign.
Predicted record: 8-4
Previous 2013 Pre-Season Previews:
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
