2014-2015 Metro Preview Finale: The Columbus Blue Jackets

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With all of our other previews out, we’re saving the best for last. The dreaded offseason is finally over, and now it’s time to analyze the Blue Jackets to get a better understanding of what might go on this season.

Preseason Rumblings

In recent news: Boone Jenner, Ryan Murray, Nathan Horton, Brian Gibbons, and Brandon Dubinsky have all been placed on injured reserve. To compensate for injury, the Jackets snagged former Columbus Blue Jacket Jack Skille off of the waiver wire from the Islanders, went back to the waiver wire to pick up Adam Cracknell, and finally signed Ryan Johansen to a 3 year contract. With these moves, the final rosters have been set, confirming that 3 (!) forward rookies have made the opening night roster in Wennberg, Dano, and Chaput.

2014-2015 Roster

Forwards:

Additions: Scott Hartnell, Alexander Wennberg, Marko Dano, Jack Skille (I guess?), Michael Chaput, Brian Gibbons, Adam Cracknell

Subtractions: RJ Umberger (traded to Philly for Hartnell), Derek MacKenzie (Florida), Blake Comeau (Pittsburgh)

Top 9:

C Ryan Johansen – LW Scott Hartnell – RW Cam Atkinson – LW Matt Calvert – C Brandon Dubinsky (IR) – C Artem Anisimov – LW Nick Foligno – C/LW Boone Jenner (IR) – RW Nathan Horton (IR) – C/RW Alexander Wennberg – C/RW Marko Dano

Bottom 3:

C/LW/RW Mark Letestu – LW/RW Corey Tropp – RW/LW Jack Skille -RW  Jared Boll – C/RW/LW Michael Chaput – RW/C Adam Cracknell – C/LW Brian Gibbons
 

The swap from Umberger to Hartnell should be a major upgrade to the forward corps. Hartnell is an impressive player and there’s proof that he wasn’t just being dragged along beside Giroux and Voracek when with the Flyers like a lot of people believe. Hartnell will be a mainstay in the top 9 and can be a real threat with any of the Jackets top 3 centers.

With the recent news on Horton’s “degenerative” back injury, it’s already somewhat accepted in CBJ-land that Horton won’t play all that much this season. In fact, there are speculations that he’s done with hockey in general, which would be bad. But the Jackets really aren’t screwed over without him. While Horton definitely makes this team better, they did succeed last year without him and he certainly wasn’t the centerpiece of the team.

When fully healthy or even without Horton, the Blue Jackets have one of the best and deepest top 3 lines in the league. Expect to see their 2nd and 3rd lines be more like a “2a, 2b” situation, and the 4th should essentially be a younger version of last year’s (but will likely be worse if Boll brainwashes Richards and plays in more than 15 games).

Defense:

James Wisniewski – Ryan Murray (IR) – Fedor Tyutin – Jack Johnson – Tim Erixon – David Savard – Dalton Prout – Cody Goloubef

 As Matt touched on in his article, defense may be the biggest weakness for the Blue Jackets this year, which is understandable when a team has a great offense and one of the best goaltenders in the league.

Wiz and Murray are a very good duo and Richards would be smart to set them as the first defensive pairing this year, with presumably Johnson & Savard as a somewhat weak second pair. Johnson has been given #1 defender role when really he hasn’t done well with it. Just because a player can soak up major minutes doesn’t mean he should.  Richards’ use of Johnson will be crucial to the success of the defensive corps this year.

Tyutin is still a solid player despite coming off his worst year in a CBJ uniform (which can largely be attributed to playing with Johnson) and will likely anchor the 3rd defensive pairing. Prout, Erixon, and Goloubef will be fighting for the 6th spot in the starting lineup.

Once Murray is healthy, the Blue Jackets are faced with a predicament: They will have 8 defenders and only have enough room for 7. So this means that one of Prout/Erixon/Goloubef will either be traded or Erixon or Goloubef will be placed on waivers to try to get them to Springfield. It’s believed that neither player would make it through waivers, so the situation becomes even more complicated.

Goaltenders:

Sergei Bobrovsky – Curtis McElhinney

With Bob being Bob for two years in a row now, Columbus fans and the rest of the league know what to expect from him. He’ll be a top 5 goaltender and will be the biggest threat that the Blue Jackets have. Bob has the capability to steal games on a nightly basis no matter how the team is playing in front of him.

Curtis McBackup was signed for another season after doing a fairly decent job filling in last year when Bob suffered an injury. Don’t expect McElhinney to play more than 10-20 if Bobrovsky can stay healthy all year.

Related note: If you heard Davidge say anything about Bobrovsky and McElhinney playing equal numbers of games and thought it held any merit, please get that thought out of your head. McElhinney is nowhere near Bobrovsky in any way at all and sharing their starts anywhere near 50/50 is nonsense.

Possible Break-Out Players

Mark’s candidate: Cam Atkinson

“I’m expecting a breakout season from Cam Atkinson. I harped on him last year around the time he got scratched for lacking the explosive speed that had people predicting him as a future 30 goal scorer. He seemed to be missing a step and instead relying on lucky deflections or rebounds to score goals. From what little bits of preseason I got to watch and the highlight videos I’ve seen it looks like he’s re-discovered those afterburners that had fans and journalists singing his praises 2-3 seasons ago. If he can stay healthy I can see him hitting the 30 goal mark this season.”

Jeremy’s candidate: Matt Calvert

“Matt Calvert may not not be the first guy you think of when you want scoring, but Matty Hustle has the ability and (hopefully) the linemates to make something happen. Calvert is consistently a plus possession player, and that leaves him open to become more of a positive production player. His downfall is generally that he isn’t always put in the best situations to produce – third line, shutdown roles – but a fully healthy season and the right linemates and situational use could leave him sniffing his first 20 goal season.”

Glass half full candidate: Jared Boll

I mean, I guess he can’t be much worse?

BS Hockey’s Prediction

Throughout these previews we’ve given you our picks on where each team will finish and why. Our weighted vote’s results had the Jackets finishing 2nd in the Metro. We’d usually give you our resasoning, but this time around we’ve asked a few other bloggers, some biased and some not, what they think of the Columbus Blue Jackets:

Derek Roessler from Canes blog Section 328

So when I initially sat down to write this Columbus Blue Jackets preview, Ryan Johansen was still without a contract and all my ideas were fully-formed, packaged, and ready to ship. Then at damn near the last minute, he had to go and sign a new deal and make me re-write this. That guy’s got some nerve! If holding out (I know, technically he wasn’t a holdout) for more money is considered selfish by some, then where does “making a blogger re-do his team preview” fall on the insensitivity scale? Alright, jokes aside, I’m really happy that both sides reached a deal, even though it makes an opposing team even better.

I’ve read a handful of different Jackets’ fans thoughts on where Johansen will be slotted come opening night, but he’s gotta be the top line center, right? At least that’s where I’d put him based solely on talent. I like Dubinsky as a 2nd line guy, not so much as a #1. With this assumption in mind, I think a top line of Atkinson-Johansen-Hartnell is a very good, but not necessarily great line. They’ve got a little dude who wants to be the best player on the team (I personally LOVE that attitude in a player), a young, talented 2-way center, and a veteran winger who can provide sandpaper in addition to offense.

Where the lines go from there, well, I don’t know. Anisimov has a hell of a shot, Calvert, Letestu, and Foligno are all guys who will probably put up between 30-40 points, and then you have Jared Boll to be large and punch people in the face. When Jenner is healthy, he’ll be in the top 6, but in the interim, young guys like Dano and Chaput will join the crowd of 2nd/3rd line forwards. The Jackets haven’t ever been the top that’s very top heavy. When they’re at their best, they’re a team that rolls multiple effective lines and that could again be the case this season, especially once Jenner returns, and if Horton is able to play again.

Where the Jackets have a leg up on the division is on defense. Not a single defenseman is under 200 pounds, and only Wisniewski is on the short side of 6′.  As much as I am not of fan of Jack Johnson, he’s good. Ryan Murray could be a stud defenseman, and there’s just a lot of size, plus Johnson and Wiz are a damn fine PP tandem on the blueline.

But perhaps I’ve buried the lede by not mentioning BOBROVSKY until now. The 2013 Vezina winner is damn good, and can take a team to the playoffs on his back. People far smarter at hockey than me have heaped praise upon him for the last two years, and they’re all right.

Worst case, I think the Jackets will be 5th in the Metro, and I think that’s highly unlikely. Best case, Horton gets some deer antler spray for his back, Boone Jenner heals up and is THAT DUDE again, and Ryan Johansen agrees to a contract and the locker room welcomes him back with open arms.

I think the Jackets will finish 3rd in the division. I’m a big fan of Jarmo and JD running the show in my home state (I’m from Zanesville- a great place to turn left on a bridge) and believe they’re doing a hell of a job. Now that Johansen is in the mix, I think this team will make the playoffs, and might even be looking at home ice advantage in the first round.

Alison Lukan

Best Case Scenario

The best case scenario for this team is that adversity galvanizes them like never before and they capitalize on a weak Metro division to valiantly return to the post season. Whatever super secret sauce went into the Jackets system last December continues to take hold and sustains. Per war-on-ice.com our PDO last year was right around 100 so it could happen – don’t need to expect a lot of variation. There’s not a lot of change on this roster, and with at least Nick Foligno, a brilliant WOWY performer, healthy as well as Matt Calvert (a corsi fiend and another friend of WOWY) ready to go there are some tools to help amplify other guys in the line up. Joey shows he was worth $6MM/ year all along and continues growing into a bonafide number one center with clutch goals and gloriously physical play. In theory, Tim Erixon shows his development process was worth it and he carries forth the success he had in Springfield, Wiz stays healthy, Murray gets healthy and the defense rounds out. I see the real threats in the Metro being PIT and NYI so assuming we hang with those two squads – may have to toy with NYR a bit – I think we’re fine.

Worst Case Scenario

Early season injuries (and late shower uppers, ahem) decimate this team early and put them in a hole that is too deep to get out of, no matter how well they play later on. Bob has an ‘average’ year and offense by committee fails to work. The Erixon/ Prout / Goloubef group fails to produce the right players to flush out a bottom six. Shot events of any kind fall through the basement and we’re back to games where we score 1 goal or less. NYI capitalizes on their late acquisitions, the Capitals rally under Trotz, New York uses some sorcery again and the CBJ are out in the cold, with no post-season to look to.

Return to Sanity – Sort Of

So what do I think will really happen? Well. Right out of the gate the Jackets will definitely have an uphill climb, make no joke about it. But you also have a roster where the bulk of the players are returning and to a system that was tweaked, not overhauled in the off-season. As BS Hockey’s own @Zekebud noted today on twitter the schedule is favorable to allowing the Jackets to simply tread water through the projected timelines for Dubinsky, Murray and Jenner to return from their respective injuries. That is all to say that the first few months will be important, and will matter, but shouldn’t be the ultimate basis for what is going to happen by the end of the season.

I think with the Jackets you have a club that is grounded in the unholy trifecta (that I just made up) of what hockey is becoming: (1) statistical respect and analysis/application (2) Chemisty – yes I went there (3) Raw skill/ability. My point there is that you have a team of players who are being guided by some really smart minds who are utilizing, and likely innovating, in the science of statistics as it relates to hockey. Add to that a group of players who now know each other’s traits, strengths, weaknesses and actually really like each other and who are willing to work hard within a system they understand and you bring slight skill upgrades via the Hartnell trade, theoretical addition of Wennberg to the line up. Voila – wins happen.

I think one (or maybe two) significant moves may lie ahead for this club, and if that happens, the road to the post season may be easier, but I still believe they make it – and as we all know, all you have to do is make it and then all bets are off. (But ok fine I will say that the Jackets at least win a round).

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R.I.P. 2014 offseason. We hardly knew ye!

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