March Madness kicked off last week, and the rounds of 64 and 32 did not disappoint, with some great games, shocking upsets, and some true contenders being revealed. Our roundtable crew from a week ago recaps the previous games, and tells us their predictions and teams to watch out for in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8.
OSN writers contributing to this roundtable will be Ryan Chase (RC), Casey Mabbott (CM), Garrett Thornton (GT), and Jason Hartzog (JH).
1. Which winning team from the opening weekend surprised you most?
(RC) I have to go with the Stanford Cardinal. New Mexico was an underrated 7-seed, yet Chasson Randle took over that game and powered Stanford through. Against Kansas, they put up a balanced attack with all five starters contributing heavily, and completely shutdown national media darling Andrew Wiggins. Holding a player who was supposed to compete for the number one overall pick to just four points on 1-of-6 shooting is a testament to Coach Johnny Dawkins.
(CM) Dayton. They were the underdog many had potentially beating Ohio State, but I don’t think anyone was expecting them to knock out Syracuse. They nearly fumbled a sound victory with some mistakes down the stretch, but held on with stout defense and good foul shooting to close out the Orange. If they can get past Stanford’s length and savvy play inside, whether they face Florida or UCLA in the elite 8, I’ll be looking for them to fight their way to the finish, win or lose.
(GT) Dayton. Last week in our roundtable I predicted that Dayton would beat Ohio State because of the in-state rivalry and the big brother-little brother relationship but I really thought Dayton would fall back to earth against Syracuse. Syracuse is known for their vicious zone defense but against “Cinderella” Dayton they were outshot, outrebounded and outplayed. Dayton really is the Cinderella story of this year’s tournament.
(JH) There were a whole lot of surprises after the first two rounds of the tournament. There are a few that stand out to me, but none of them stand out more than the sweet sixteen matchup of Dayton vs. Stanford. Wait, what? Exactly. I didn’t have either team going past the first round, but let’s not talk about my bracket – I don’t feel like digging it out of the shredder. Stanford played a Kansas team that wasn’t nearly themselves without Joel Embiid, so that wasn’t too surprising. Dayton on the other hand gave Ohio State all that they could handle and then some in that first game. That was an upset I thought of taking, but I figured Aaron Craft’s ten year experience would help Ohio State prevail. Dayton beating Syracuse was beyond surprising, though. All I can say is great job, Dayton.
2. Which losing team from the opening weekend surprised you most?
(RC) Everyone loves to see the little guy get through and do the impossible. 40-0 would have been nice, so it was disappointing to see Wichita State fall to Kentucky. They competed to the last second against a team with multiple NBA prospects, so you cannot take anything away from the Shockers, but their second half defense was well below what they had shown all season. They could not afford to give the Wildcats an inch, and when they did, Julius Randle and the Harrison brothers did the rest.
(CM) Creighton. Many of the experts were forecasting Baylor’s length on defense as a potential pitfall for Doug McDermott and co, but I think most were shocked by how little Creighton could accomplish despite their opponent’s efficiency. For a star player and a team being compared (and perhaps unfairly) to Larry Bird and the 1979 Indiana State NCAA championship runner-up, this loss hit well below expectations and was an unfitting end to McDermott’s exceptional collegiate career.
(GT) Duke. That was an absolute pathetic showing. As much as anyone can say that Mercer showed up to play, that was Duke’s game to lose, and they did. Mercer played team basketball, spreading the ball around, and shooting 56% from the field! Duke on the other hand only had 6 players score on 3 of them in double digits. That is unacceptable in the biggest game of the year. It will be interesting to see how that showing will affect Jabari Parker’s draft status.
(JH) Again, a whole lot of surprises went down over the weekend. Syracuse is very surprising, especially after how they handled business in the first round. Duke losing in the first round is highly disappointing as well. Both basketball programs have been remarkably good for an extended period of time and are coached by two highly respected coaches. It’s surprising to see either team to go out so early. But this is what makes March Madness so great.
3. Which players and/or teams are you watching going into the Sweet Sixteen?
(RC) The players to watch in the Sweet Sixteen are Nick Johnson of Arizona and the entire starting five for Baylor. Both teams tore apart their Round of 32 competition like paper bags, and Gonzaga and Creighton are hardly subpar teams. Johnson has led his team with poise all season long, and his leadership will be the key if Arizona is going to get past a tenacious San Diego State squad. Meanwhile, Baylor is executing on a different level from almost every other team in the field, and they will give Wisconsin all they can handle and more.
(CM) Kyle Anderson and the UCLA Bruins. With Dayton knocking off Syracuse and Stanford knocking off Kansas, UCLA is the last “blue-blood” team standing between Florida and the Elite eight. Anderson is one of the most outstanding players in the nation and should be able to propel the Bruins past the Gators, albeit assuming he gets scoring help from Jordan Adams and solid production on both ends from Tony Parker and the Wear twins inside against Patric Young, who plays much bigger than his size would suggest but is the only real threat down low that the Gators have to throw at the Bruins. Florida and UCLA are both known for their offensive efficiency and ability to compete against any team in the nation and UCLA beat Arizona to claim the PAC12 crown as recently as two weeks ago, so this matchup has the potential to be the game of the tournament.
(GT) I really like watching Michigan State and the combination of Gary Harris and Adrien Payne. Harris fills the score sheet up from the guard position and Payne is an incredibly versatile big that can spread the floor and is very potent offensively. Michigan State was the sexy pick before the tournament and they have not disappointed.
(JH) A little more on them in the next question, but Michigan State is definitely one team I’m watching going forward. Just to give some variety here, let’s talk about the Louisville/Kentucky matchup (Kentucky won their single regular season matchup earlier in the year 73-66). Both teams know each other very well, as they have played yearly. They also met just two years ago in the final four. I don’t know what is a bigger rivalry, the matchup between Kentucky and Louisville or the coaching matchup between John Calipari and Rick Patino. Calipari and the Wildcats will have their hands full versus last year’s Champions.
For Kentucky, that win over Wichita State is just the type of game this young squad needed in order to gain some confidence going forward. It wasn’t that the Shockers didn’t play well, it was that Kentucky came together and matched everything Wichita State threw at them. It was a hard fought game. Kentucky came out victorious after Wichita State point guard Fred VanVleet missed the potential game winning 3-pointer at the buzzer. The game was a classic, and I expect nothing less of the Louisville/Kentucky game.
4. What 1 or 2 seed is looking at an upset, if any?
(RC) For my money, the two teams in biggest danger of being upset in the Sweet Sixteen are Virginia (against Michigan State) and Wisconsin (against Baylor). Virginia has relied on its impressive depth and stiflingly oppressive defense to roll through the tournament, but Michigan State center Adreian Payne creates a mismatch against Virginia’s smaller lineups, and the aggressiveness of Gary Harris and Branden Dawson may be too much for the Cavaliers to handle. If the Spartans can force a faster tempo, they will win the game.
(CM) Florida, Virginia, and Wisconsin are the 1 or 2 seeded “favorites” seemingly in trouble in the Sweet 16. UCLA has all of the offensive firepower to get past the Gators, and I really wouldn’t be surprised if Baylor and Michigan State upset Wisconsin and Virginia given how well they played against two of the better offensive teams in Creighton and Oregon. Tennessee looks all the part of the tournament dark horse, so Michigan had better be ready but has everything they need to handle the Vols. I think Arizona is the only top seed that isn’t in any trouble, and should be able to handily beat their opponent, despite what Xavier Thames and SDSU throw their way.
(GT) Virginia is in danger against Michigan State. Vegas has Michigan State as a 2-point favorite in this game and I would lean towards Michigan State as well. They have a lot of veteran leadership on the court and a coach that has a very good track record in the tournament. Virginia may very well become the next number 1 seed casualty.
(JH) Of the 8, only 5 remain. Wichita State is the only number 1 seed to lose. Villanova and Kansas are the two number 2 seeds to fall as well. That leaves Florida, Arizona, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Virginia is the most likely to go down in the sweet sixteen. I really like Michigan State. They had some injuries throughout the season that resulted in a lower tournament seed, but they are healthy again and look great. That might be the game I’m looking forward to the most out of the sweet sixteen matchups. They are starting to come together at the right time. If Keith Appling gets it going, this is going to be one tough team to beat.
5. What can the Oregon Ducks take away from their tournament performance?
(RC) That when they are at their best, they are one of the best teams in the nation. They pushed Wisconsin to the limit in the first half, and nearly held on to advance. Obviously the Ducks would like some help in the frontcourt, as forwards and centers in the game accounted for 19 points and 13 fouls. Waverly Austin, Ben Carter and Elgin Cook struggled to contain Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker. They will get that improvement with redshirt freshman forward Jordan Bell and incoming freshman Ray Kasongo next season.
(CM) In short, the Ducks need to ensure they start next season with a bigger and more effective presence down low. The long version is that Ben Carter was the only “big” on the Ducks roster that played for his life against Wisconsin’s bigs and ultimately lost the battle (but not for a lack of effort) which is what killed the Ducks against a Badgers team that had the momentum completely on their side in the second half and all the size in the world compared to the Ducks to beat them to the boards and keep the inside plugged. Frank Kaminsky played like Bill Laimbeer in the second half and routinely killed the Ducks with his outside shooting and second chance points on the offensive glass. Waverly Austin played when called upon but not effectively and was outplayed by Carter which is the same downfall Arsalan Kazemi’s superb effort fell victim to against Louisville in the sweet sixteen last year when Tony Woods was mostly ineffective and got in to foul trouble against Gorgui Dieng. Incoming 6’10” transfer Michael Chandler, once a top-50 prep center prospect before academic ineligibility sent him to Junior College after originally committing to Louisville, Xavier, and UCF; will ideally give them the force in the middle they have been seeking since Ernie Kent’s favored guard heavy lineups.
(GT) I may be an eternal optimist but I think that the tournament appearance by the Ducks is a huge positive for the program. Not only did they show flashes of brilliance by making it to the tournament, they beat a good BYU team and were very competitive against a very good Wisconsin team. The program is in good hands with Dana Altman and they are on the right trajectory. Last week 5-Star shooting guard JaQuan Lyle committed to the University Oregon. That is a huge victory for the future of the program.
(JH) They had that game won against Wisconsin and let it slip away. They played 3 great halves, but not so great in the final half that put them out of the tourney. They led Wisconsin by 12 points at the half. Wisconsin was able to rally back, holding Oregon to 28 points in the second half. That was a tough pill to swallow for Oregon, but if there was one thing that they could take away from this, it’s that Altman is going to have his guys ready to compete for the tournament year in and year out. Last season they were able to surprise some people and make it to the sweet sixteen. They were about 5 minutes away from doing it again. Altman will be around for a while. He has a knack for bringing over college transfers and I can’t wait to see who he can bring in for next year.
Should be an exciting next few days, as the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 take place before the end of the month and start to reveal the contenders and the pretenders. Check back here April 4th as our writers prepare to answer the puzzling question of the tournament: Who will survive the Final Four? And let you know who the tournament MVP’s are, as well as what players are boosting their draft stock with their postseason play.
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