<![CDATA[Which rookies-to-be are going to be called "a flame-thrower!" by Kevin Harlan? Which gunslingers are going to be least likely to shoot blanks under the bright lights? The holders of the most swag, the least likely to be deemed "Turrible" by Sir Charles? Well, I'll tell you.
The Points Guards:
Winner: Dante Exum, Australia.
At this point what we know about Dante is that he’s 6’5″-6’6″ tall, has a lightning quick first-step and shoots well enough to play off-guard. Kind of sounds like rookie of the year Michael Carter-Williams, doesn’t it? Write this formula down: No handchecking + minutes + tall, long, quick PGs = buckets. He should get the minutes (a prerequisite for scoring/winning ROY) because he’ll almost certainly be drafted by a lottery team desperate for a starter or 6th man. All that’s unknown is which team Dante subjects to his inferno first (you knew that pun had to be coming at some point, right?)
Runner-Up: Marcus Smart, Oklahoma St.
He’s a combo-guard more than a pure point but if he’s drafted by a bad team in awful need of a PG, he could log enough minutes to scorch the stat sheet. Smart isn’t the most consistent scorer by any means but he’s as strong as an ox, athletic and a tenacious defender, enabling him to get hard buckets (or whatever is the opposite of easy buckets). The range game is streaky but when he’s on a hot streak it’s ghost chili burrito in Death Valley hot.
Dark Horses: Shabazz Napier, UConn; Nick Johnson, Arizona; Jordan Clarkson, Missouri.
The Shooting Guards:
Winner: Andrew Wiggins, Kansas.
Okay, I know one could swing a cat and hit somebody that can fill it up better than Wiggins right now but hear me out. He’s going to a terrible team (minutes), SG is pathetically thin these days, and he’s so freakishly athletic that he’ll score more in garbage time than most rookies will at all. He needs to tighten up the handles, develop some go-to moves and polish the rough but serviceable jump shot but he can get there. And if he does, ESPN will make you hate him in no time.
Runner-Up: Nik Stauskas, Michigan.
This is so circumstantial in terms of where they end up but Nik has some advantages up his sleeve. We all know he’s a solid outside shooter but he’s also deceptively athletic and has nice SG size at 6’5″. Spacing is almost a tired buzzword by now but Nik is a bit more ready-made to contribute than some younger cohorts like James Young.
Darkhorses: James Young, Kentucky; PJ Hairston, D-League; Bogdan Bogdanovich, Serbia; TJ Warren, NC State
The Not Small Scoring Forwards:
Winner: Jabari Parker, Duke.
This is hitting the easy button. He is one of the most polished offensive players in the draft, period. Even if he’s a poor man’s Carmelo Anthony, that’s good enough to warrant this spot. Parker should be one of the more consistent scorers of the rookie class with his fine repertoire of shot making, clutchness, and all the minutes he’ll assuredly play on a bad team.
Runner-Up: Doug McDermott, Creighton
Doug can score, even if he has to do his best Dirk Nowitzki one-legged fadeaway to do it. He might be the best 3pt shooter in the draft complete with deep range and he moves extremely well without the ball, making him a deadly role-player scorer a la Kyle Korver. Used properly and asked to play to his strengths he’ll punch in bunches. Asked to be a 1st or 2nd option or forced to create his own shot using athleticism or the dribble, to quote South Park, “You’re going to have a bad time.”
Darkhorses: Kyle Anderson, UCLA; TJ Warren, NC State; Rodney Hood, Duke; Cleanthony Early, Wichita St.
The Potent Power Forwards:
Winner: Julius Randle, Kentucky
Hear that sigh of relief? That’s Randle now that he doesn’t have to score on 2-3 defenders all night in the zone friendly NCAAs. The left-handed bulldog should flourish and be able to use his athleticism now that the lane isn’t full of 7′ white guys whose names should be Biff or Brock. As the only Wildcat with a post game, Randle faced an uphill slog all season. Slim chance Randle has to play that role for his NBA team and he should be able to show us the things that had us salivating since his high school days. Handles, speed and perimeter game all should be better displayed in the spacing friendly NBA and Randle has the NBA ready body to get to work immediately.
Runner-Up: Adreian Payne, Michigan St.
This is a toughie, because Noah Vonleh can just as easily go here. I feel like with his maturity and more established stretch 4 ability, Payne is more likely to be drafted by a team that already has a specific role in mind for him. You know what you’re getting with Payne, a solid shooter with range out to the college three, maybe farther, a devastating screen setter, and a guy least likely to have that deer in the headlights look. Payne will be more than nifty in the pick & roll game, able to pop out for a silky J or roll to the rim with his nice length and sneaky athleticism.
Darkhorses: Noah Vonleh, Indiana; Dario Saric, Croatia; Cory Jefferson, Baylor; Jarnell Stokes, Tennessee.
The Centers of Defenses’ Attentions:
Winner: Joel Embiid, Kansas.
There aren’t a lot of centers in this draft, so the guy that reminds people of Hakeem, even if that’s if you only watched him cross-eyed upside-down while drunk on mezcal, is winning this title hands down (man down). The only thing keeping Embiid from being the best scoring center in this draft is his own body but hopefully he left the injury bug behind in Lawrence, Kansas. For a 7′ freshman from Africa, Embiid has that soft touch and footwork of a seasoned NBA vet, so much so that you might want to check his birth certificate just in case that polished old man’s game wasn’t come by so honestly. He’s a legitimate seven footer also but retains the fluidity of players much smaller. He might be brought along slowly for health precaution and could be a slow-starter as he adjusts to NBA speed but if unleashed he’s a serious candidate for ROY.
Runner-Up: Mitch McGary, Michigan.
Another pivot with back issues, McGary was a lottery candidate in last year’s draft. If healthy and able to return that form, McGary has the savvy of a cagey vet and knows how to use his big body and soft touch to his advantage. He may be the best low-post banger available but he’s not just a bruiser, he’s got a nice jumper out to 18′, decent handles, and is an excellent passer. If McGary can resist going up in smoke, his combination of size and skill could endear a coach into giving him solid rotation minutes.
Darkhorses: Clint Capela, Switzerland; Jusuf Nurkic, Bosnia & Herzegovina.
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So there you have it, the most likely candidates to scorch the nets and other heat related cliché sayings. Is the leading rookie scorer on this list? Probably. Is he lurking somewhere in the second round, waiting for Gregg Popovich to turn him into a major rotational player out of nowhere? Just as likely also, unfortunately. Them’s the breaks but I like my chances.
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