A lot of people are asking me about the playoff scenarios and while you can find this information on a lot of sites out there, I figured I’d put it here too to help clarify things for you on where the Saints stand. The Saints have two games remaining and they need to win at least one with some help to win the NFC South and qualify for the playoffs. If they lose both remaining games, the Saints are eliminated. Here are the possible scenarios:
If the Saints win both games, they are in no matter what. No help needed, win both and you are in.
The Saints can clinch the NFC South with a win Sunday over Atlanta and a Panthers loss to the Browns (in Carolina).
If the Panthers beat the Browns and the Saints beat the Falcons, it would come down to week 17. If both the Panthers and Saints lose in week 17, the Saints would win the NFC South. If the Panthers beat the Falcons and the Saints lose to the Bucs, the Panthers would win the NFC South.
There is also a chance the Saints could lose to the Falcons on Sunday and still win the NFC South. The Falcons, however, are eliminated if they lose to the Saints. If the Falcons beat the Saints and the Panthers beat the Browns, the Saints are eliminated. But, if the Falcons beat the Saints and the Browns beat the Panthers, then the Saints would still be alive in week 17. At that point the only way they could get in would be a win over the Bucs combined with a Panthers win over the Falcons.
The only teams that control their destiny at this point are the Falcons and Saints. The Panthers need help to get in and they will beat rooting for the Falcons to beat the Saints.
Confused yet?
OK here are all the possible scenarios which I believe accounts for every variable:
Scenario #1
Week 16
Saints beat Falcons
Browns beat Panthers
Under this scenario week 17 doesn’t matter, Saints win NFC South
Scenario #2
Week 16
Saints beat Falcons
Panthers beat Browns
Week 17
Saints beat Bucs
Under this scenario the second Panthers game doesn’t matter, Saints win NFC South
Scenario #3
Week 16
Saints beat Falcons
Panthers beat Browns
Week 17
Bucs beat Saints
Falcons beat Panthers
Under this scenario the Saints win the NFC South
Scenario #4
Week 16
Saints beat Falcons
Panthers beat Browns
Week 17
Bucs beat Saints
Panthers beat Falcons
Under this scenario the Panthers win the NFC South
Scenario #5
Week 16
Falcons beat Saints
Panthers beat Browns
Under this scenario the Saints are eliminated and the winner of Panthers @ Falcons in week 17 wins the NFC South
Scenario #6
Week 16
Falcons beat Saints
Browns beat Panthers
Week 17
Falcons beat Panthers
Under this scenario the Falcons win the NFC South and the second Saints game doesn’t matter
Scenario #7
Week 16
Falcons beat Saints
Browns beat Panthers
Week 17
Panthers beat Falcons
Saints beat Bucs
Under this scenario the Saints win the NFC South
Scenario #8
Week 16
Falcons beat Saints
Browns beat Panthers
Week 17
Panthers beat Falcons
Bucs beat Saints
Under this scenario the Panthers win the NFC South
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