Every year, the NFL Combine tests the top athletes in the country in a number of physical (and mental) tests, revealing the quickest and strongest NFL prospects in the country. Over the years, the Combine has earned a poor reputation as an unreliable measure of football talent, despite some high-profile risers like Dontari Poe and Bruce Irvin potentially making up for famous workout warrior draft busts like Mike Mamula and Vernon Gholston.
For the most part, however, evaluators know the overall athleticism and physical capabilities of incoming prospects and there are few surprises. Now, the Combine is largely useful for encouraging talent scouts to take a second look at a prospect or answers questions that the tape can’t resolve by itself. With that in mind, there will always be some winners and losers in the combine.
Winners:
1. Teddy Bridgewater, QB Louisville
The prohibitive top quarterback in the draft, there were a few concerns that kept Bridgewater from being considered an elite prospect by many, the most obvious of which seemed to be size-related. At 214 pounds, Bridgewater allayed concerns about his build after evidently bulking up and meeting his sophomore year weight. He also passed another concerning test, though not with flying colors, when his hands measured 9 1/4". He didn’t run, but his quick short shuttle time of 4.20 seconds confirms his functional mobility and lends credence to the Aaron Rodgers comparisons. Eliminating the rare issues he already had should cement his status as the top quarterback in the draft, which is where he lands in Optimum Scouting’s quarterback rankings.
2. Dri Archer, RB Kent State
Regardless of size (Archer weighs in at 173 pounds, standing 5’7 3/4"), NFL evaluators will pay for speed, which Archer demonstrated in abundance on Monday. He flew through the 40-yard dash just two-hundredths of a second slower than the record-setter in the electronic timing era, Chris Johnson who hit the mark at 4.24 seconds. Archer displayed this speed on film at Kent State, and may encourage a team to reach for him beyond his traditional projection because of his unique rapidity, even if it does mean he’s limited to a pass-catching, third-down role. Archer ranks 30th in Optimum Scouting’s running back rankings, and isn’t considered draftable.
3. Logan Thomas, QB Virginia Tech
Without a productive season to sell to talent evaluators, he’ll have to rely on his “upside” to force a team’s hand into selecting him in the draft. Not every team is going to be seduced by his combine numbers, but it’s plausible that a few will look to the example of the 2011 draft, where the most raw and athletic quarterback has so far produced the best career. Thomas produced the best 40-yard dash time of all the passers there (4.61 seconds), while also weighing the most (248 pounds). He also led his group in the vertical leap (35.5”), broad jump (9’10”), and placed second in the short shuttle (4.18 seconds) while posting a respectable 3-cone time (7.05 seconds) for a man so large. Any team that drafts him won’t play him for a couple of years but could end up with the most potent weapon of the draft. Thomas is currently Optimum Scouting’s 7th-ranked quarterback and has a third-round grade.
4. Jeff Janis, WR Saginaw Valley State
Lacking the attention of some of the other athletic wunderkinds entering the draft, Janis put on a stellar combine performance. Janis is one of only two receivers to weigh 215 pounds or more to also record a 40-yard dash below 4.45 seconds, at 219 pounds with a 4.42 run. The small-school receiver also recorded an impressive vertical leap (37.5”), broad jump (10’3”), 3-cone (6.64 seconds) and short shuttle (3.98 seconds). He ranks 47th among receivers at Optimum Scouting and is projected to be undrafted, especially given the deep receiver draft.
5. Jerick McKinnon, RB Georgia Southern
Despite entering the combine without much fanfare, Mckinnon could easily be argued to be the most impressive running back at the combine. He was the only running back who weighed over 200 pounds that also turned in a 40-yard dash below 4.45 (209 pounds, 4.41). He also bench pressed eight more reps than the second-place RB (32 reps) and had the second-highest vertical leap and broad jump at his position as well, at 40.5” and 11’0” respectively. McKinnon’s explosiveness was also demonstrated with the fastest 10-yard split (1.46 seconds), His rare physical capability alone should let him rise. He is currently Optimum Scouting’s 37th-ranked running back and is projected not to be drafted.
Losers:
1. James Wilder, RB Florida State – Considered an intriguing if running back prospect if nothing else for the reckless abandon with which he runs, Wilder’s ideal build will not be enough to make up for his poor combine performance. His reputation for strong running will need to hold up to overcome an incredibly disappointing 40-yard dash time of 4.86 seconds, a sub-par bench press of 18 reps and merely adequate jumps (vertical 35” and broad 10’1”). His bulk and tape will ensure that he doesn’t fall too far, but in an era where running backs have become devalued, this could drop him more than it would have in the past. Optimum Scouting ranks him as the 14th overall running back, with a 4th-round grade.
2. Jarvis Landry, WR Louisiana State
It’s clear that the purported hamstring injury Landry suffered during the combine had an effect on his performance, but Landry is on notice for his Pro Day. For a relatively small receiver (5’11” and 205 pounds) to turn in the slowest 40-yard dash time (4.77), second-shortest vertical leap (28.5”) and second-shortest broad jump (9’2”) but still remain as a top-tier receiving candidate is somewhat unheard of. It’s likely that he will make up for it come LSU’s Pro Day, but there isn’t a lot separating him from his peers. He’s currently ranked as the 5th receiver by Optimum Scouting.
3. Allen Robinson, WR Penn State
In such a strong class of receivers, even confirming known weaknesses can hurt one’s stock. Robinson clocked in at 4.60 seconds in the 40-yard dash, and had a 1.60-second unofficial ten-yard split, both of which are worrisome for receivers. He does help his case with some explosion in his vertical leap (39”) and broad jump (10’7”), as well as a mixed agility showing (7.00 seconds in the three-cone and 4.00 seconds in the short shuttle), but the most high-profile test plays a big role in combine evaluation, and Robinson is likely to drop. Optimum Scouting ranks him 3rd of all receiving prospects.
4. Ka’Deem Carey, RB Arizona
With off-field troubles shadowing him, the slightly-undersized running back needed to prove his upside in order to counter his downside, but didn’t do much of it. At 207 pounds, Carey should have run faster than 4.65, and his average ten-yard split of 1.59 didn’t help much either. He also showcased poor explosive ability with a very subpar vertical jump of 32.5” and a poor broad jump of 9’7”. Carey has toughness and vision to spare, but if he can’t prove that there’s a reason to take a risk on him, he could drop further than many anticipate. He is currently ranked as Optimum Scouting’s 4th running back, with a third-round grade.
5. Dustin Vaughan, QB West Texas A&M
It doesn’t take much to move a late-round prospect off the board, and Vaughan’s hand-size alone could turn him from a sleeper quarterback gem to an afterthought—he had the smallest hands of all the passers there, at 8 7/8”. It may seem a quibbling thing, but hand size can affect everything from the flight path of the ball, to ball velocity and ball security. Holding the ball closer to the tail will also affect consistency and accuracy. It doesn’t help that he was also one of the slower quarterbacks and had less agility than his contemporaries at the position. Vaughan is currently Optimum Scouting’s 16th quarterback, with a 7th-round grade.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
