Blue Jackets vs Penguins: Pre-Play-Off Observations

Blue Jackets vs Penguins: Pre-Playoff Observations

We’ve all seen and heard about the Pittsburgh Penguins’ dominance over the Columbus Blue Jackets this season. The Pens’ 5-0 record over the Jackets is as lop-sided as they come, but do the final scores tell the whole story?

These games span almost the entire season – two in early November, one in early December, one in late December, and one in late March as the season wound down. The line-ups were drastically different through these games as well, with many injuries and line-up shuffles causing large scale changes over both line-ups. But there were some constants through each game.

I spent most of my time Watching the Games focusing on zone entries by the Jackets, as well as d-men who may be targeted by Pittsburgh for maximum offensive potential. Let’s look at that portion first.

A few days ago, Pittsburgh Tribune writer Josh Yohe took a quick look at the Penguins offensive system. The Penguins defense plays a “hurry-up” style in their own end, looking for quick stretch passes to the forwards for a fast attack through the neutral zone and into the offensive end. The majority of these carries should, of course, be made to Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby for maximum effect.

Throughout the season, the Penguins put this to use – a lot of “fast break” passes were sent up to the forwards who, by and large, looked to get the puck to guys like Crosby, Malkin and Jussi Jokinen. The Penguins tended to attack the same defenders as well. The big take-away was that the Penguins seemed to try and attack Jack Johnson’s partner with zone entries quite a bit. Malkin was particularly vicious with this, as he massacred Fedor Tyutin for multiple o-zone carry-ins. This lead to Johnson trying to pick up trailing forwards while still maintaining focus on the play – something he has not shown a penchance for. In the November 1 game, Johnson was on the ice for four goals against, which potentially cost him a spot on the US Olympic team. In the March 28 game, Dalton Prout was Johnson’s partner, and also the Penguins’ choice of target, as he was consistently dumped in on, exploiting his slower footspeed and allowing speedy forwards to beat him to the puck. This resulted in down-low possession and a lot of defensive zone work by Prout and Johnson.

Let’s face it, Crosby and Malkin are likely going to carve up this team. There are very few defenders in the entire league capable of shutting them down, and the Jackets probably do not have one of them. But alas, they’ll have to try, and in my estimation, their best bet is Ryan Murray. Sure, it’s a small, very small sample size, but Murray played 28:38 of 5v5 hockey vs Crosby this year and was not on the ice for a goal against – while throwing down a 63.5% Corsi For. I don’t think he has the defensive acumen to “shut them down”, but his speed and ability with the puck could prevent a turnover at an untimely moment, or even help prevent a turnover from turning into a scoring chance. At worst, it’s worth trying him out there for a game, rather than Johnson [40.3% Corsi For in 31 min vs Crosby] and Tyutin [30.8% Corsi For in 27 min vs 87].

The Blue Jackets had a hard time establishing a consistent forecheck in three of the five games, and it showed in the final scores. The Penguins did a lot of work trying to muck up the neutral zone and force dump-ins. Defenders played tight to the blue line, backchecking forwards were draped over players, and the middle of the ice was blocked off. This plays to the lack of skill of the bottom six forwards on Pittsburgh, who are pretty awful when given a shot in the offensive zone. Preventing opposition forwards from scoring is about all they can hope for. 

One of the bright spots offensively for the Jackets was the line of Matt Calvert, Brandon Dubinsky and Cam Atkinson. They were together for only two of the five games but, perhaps not coincidentally, they were the two games in which the Jackets were the most competitive. The line ran at a Corsi Close rate of about 61%, playing against all comers. Dubinsky and Atkinson were also together with Artem Anisimov in the late December tilt, and they too smashed the opposition – primarily Crosby’s line – to a tune of 80% Corsi For.

One member of the team who should hopefully be back early in the series is Nick Foligno. While his point totals don’t stand out, he was very effective at creating 5v5 offense, especially with regards to entering the offensive zone with possession. In the time I tracked, Foligno lead the Jackets in total zone entries [16], and zone entries with control [13]. His zone entries generated 15 shot attempts for. His presence also has helped steady Ryan Johansen, who becomes less of a target and able to get himself open for chances while the defense focuses on Foligno. The other thing about Foligno? His 64.7% Corsi For vs Crosby. Maybe want to look into that a bit.

On the grand scale, Pittsburgh is an eminently beatable team. Columbus outpossessed them, even in score-close and score-tied situations [52.5% for CBJ], and they outshot them 155-145 on the season. The Penguins are almost entirely sustained by their top two centres, and whoever those guys drag around with them. The keys to the series are incredibly obvious, but the video evidence and the numbers back it up: contain Crosby and Malkin, feast on the bottom six, exploit lumbering blueliners like Brooks Orpik, Bobby Bortuzzo, and [hopefully] Deryk Engelland, and you have significantly improved your odds of victory. In a seven-game series, that’s all you can ask for.

Extra Skater reports:
2013-11-01 CBJ @ PIT
2013-11-02 PIT @ CBJ
2013-12-09 CBJ @ PIT
2013-12-29 PIT @ CBJ
2014-03-28 PIT @ CBJ

Jeremy Crowe

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