Today is Part Two of my reflections and review of the NBA’s regular season, which will conclude for the Blazers tomorrow. Part One can be found in this link.
Let’s jump right into it. The other 16 teams will be placed under my unsparing eye and wit today, including the Portland Trail Blazers. Since these are the likely playoff teams, the tone will be more complimentary today. Maybe.
Young and Hungry
Detroit Pistons: What Stan Van Gundy is trying to build here is what he had in Orlando during the late-‘00s, with a peak Dwight Howard surrounded by four shooters. Looking at the roster, you can see the skeletal beginnings of a similar team taking shape.
Center Andre Drummond is a man-child whose prowess as the roll man in the pick-and-roll might equal Tyson Chandler’s one day. His rebounding is also impressive, though his defense has been spotty and his free-throw shooting is the absolute worst the league has ever offered. The defense will be smoothed out as Drummond gets more experience, but the free-throw shooting is incredibly concerning. If he can get to Howard’s 50-50 accuracy, it’ll be a vast improvement and a slight miracle.
Point guard Reggie Jackson paid off Van Gundy’s huge investment in him before the season, for now. The Jackson-Drummond actions have formed a solid base for the Pistons’ offense, which is 15th in offensive rating. Average, but compared to the swill Pistons fans have had to endure in prior years, they’ll take it.
Tobias Harris, acquired from Orlando, is Van Gundy’s vision of a modern-day Rashard Lewis, a tall rangy forward that can play either the 3 or 4, can execute from the triple threat position, can do some rebounding to help Drummond…basically, a Swiss Army Knife. Lewis’ value was greatest when he was shooting threes, and Harris’ outside accuracy has been up and down throughout his career. To fully realize his potential in the role Van Gundy has earmarked from him, Harris must shoot better.
Other than those three, there is emerging 3-and-D wing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, the rookie forward Stanley Johnson, and a mix of veterans and scraps that collectively fill in the gaps, but individually don’t see much time.
The next step for the Pistons is to fill out their roster with good to playable players. They have the foundational pieces in place, but the next challenge for SVG is finding the guys that can support Drummond, Jackson and Harris. An ace three-point shooter at the shooting guard position would be a giant help.
Utah Jazz: They are one game ahead of the Houston Rockets right now for the last playoff spot in the West with two games to go, but even if they were to falter now, their season has been a successful one. Even with Dante Exum unable to play all year, and through all the other injuries they’ve had to struggle through, the Jazz have hung in there.
Now Gordon Hayward and Derrick Favors and all the rest of the young talent the Jazz have accumulated over the last four years stand a good chance of seeing their first-ever minutes in a playoff game. Even if they’re just going to get obliterated by the Golden State Warriors in four straight games, the chance to face the Warriors would be a nice enough carrot for the young guys.
Stuck in Neutral
Dallas Mavericks: Even Dirk Nowitzki will have to one day give in to the inexorable pull of Father Time. What will happen to the Mavericks then?
Chandler Parsons and Wesley Matthews have struggled with injuries all year. The point guard position, the most important in today’s NBA, is manned by a washed-up Deron Williams and the deplorable Raymond Felton, whose name is a curse word among the Portland basketball community.
The Mavs have capable veterans on their roster, but they aren’t good enough to move the needle; Dallas was in this position last year, and the year before that as well. All the maneuvering and trading of draft picks has only served to keep the franchise stuck squarely in the middle of the conference, and Dirk has already slipped. Never a good defender or rebounder, he’s lost almost all capacity for lateral movement. He looks like a mummy out there, and only his prodigious shooting skills make him a net positive out there on the floor.
Simply put, these guys are in trouble, and there’s no plausible relief on the horizon.
Indiana Pacers: This team is better off than the Mavericks right now, but not by much. The only reason the Pacers are all but assured to qualify for the playoffs is because of the fall of the Chicago Bulls. Paul George is a superstar in his prime, and Myles Turner was an inspired find in the latter half of the lottery last year, but to survive long-term in the much-improved East, President of Basketball Ops Larry Bird needs to find them more help.
Till then, they’ll serve as tune-up fodder for the Cleveland Cavaliers and other top East teams.
Memphis Grizzlies: Injuries. That one word has defined the Grizzlies’ 2015-16 season. They’ve dressed an NBA-record 28 different players this season, and their best player active right now is a decrepit Zach Randolph.
This year can be thought of in two ways for Memphis. It could be considered a wash, a one-year aberration before they get back to their extremely annoying Grit-n-Grind ways. But it could also be considered the beginning of the end of that era.
If Marc Gasol decides to leave in free agency (something he isn’t likely to do, since he loves Memphis), the Grizz are toast. Even if he stays, Randolph and Tony Allen are getting up there in years, and the Grizzlies are too over-reliant on veteran castoffs to fill out their rotation.
At best, this is a team that is still going to be good, but will be on the decline.
Shattering Expectations
Portland Trail Blazers: If GM Neil Olshey doesn’t get at least a few votes for Executive of the Year, it’d be a shock. Ditto for coach Terry Stotts for Coach of the Year.
The skill and guts of Damian Lillard, the vast improvement of CJ McCollum, the toughness provided by AL-Farouq Aminu and Ed Davis, and the shooting prowess of Allen Crabbe all deserve mention, as well as the willingness of Mo Harkless to play power forward after Meyers Leonard had surgery, despite being a skinny six-foot-nine.
It is the coaching acumen of Stotts that brought together the young players and spare parts Olshey acquired, and helped them maximize their strengths. In maximizing their abilities and emphasizing what an individual player does best, not only did Stotts help them reach their peak performance, but helped them cover for other players’ weaknesses as well.
For a team that was predicted to be among the five worst in the NBA at the start of the season, the Blazers did extremely well for themselves. It’s a triumph of team play and skillful coaching.
Boston Celtics: After they got swept out of the 2015 Playoffs, the Celtics were viewed as a team on the rise. There were questions about how far they could really go without a star player; to this very day, those questions still linger. After their performance this season, though, they might not have to face many more of those questions in the future.
The Celtics are basically a defensive-oriented version of the Blazers, sans a star-level talent like Lillard. The players individually are very flawed, either physically or mentally, yet coach Brad Stevens has them playing so well, they were at one time the third-best team in the East.
Boston might not go far this year, but Stevens and his players have firmly established themselves as Eastern playoff fixtures this season. That’s a significant step in the right direction, without a great deal of talent. Imagine what they could do with a top-10 kind of player to lead them…like Kevin Durant, maybe?
Charlotte Hornets: Another team that had a stark turnaround, the Hornets flopped badly in Year One of their rebrand. During that summer, moves were made to bring in solid veterans to shore up Charlotte’s depth in case Al Jefferson or Kemba Walker suffered an injury. Bringing aboard Nicolas Batum, Jeremy Lin, Jeremy Lamb, Spencer Hawes, and Courtney Lee has given the Hornets a much-needed shot in the arm, particularly offensively.
Like the Celtics, they likely won’t go far in the playoffs. And like the Celtics, they’ll consider this season successful regardless, just because of where jerkwads like me expected them to be at the start of the season.
Good Teams, Serious Questions
Miami Heat: The question about the Heat is Chris Bosh’s long-term health. For the last two seasons, he’s had issues with blood clots in his legs and lungs. This is a condition that can be life-threatening, and had claimed the life of Blazers legend Jerome Kersey last year.
Dwyane Wade’s ongoing contract issues pale in comparison to Bosh fighting blood clots; this is a man’s life we’re talking about. If Bosh has these issues for the third year in a row next season, he might have to retire…and leave the Heat bereft of their best player. They’re a good playoff team now, but their capacity for being more than that depends on Bosh’s ability to play. If he has to call it quits, Miami won’t be able to be more than what they are for a very long time, barring another free agency coup.
Atlanta Hawks: The Hawks have two questions hovering about them: will they be able to retain big man Al Horford when he hits free agency this summer, and even with him, are they good enough to challenge Cleveland in the East?
The first question is easy to answer. Horford has given no inclination that he’s going to flee Atlanta, and the Hawks fully intend to keep him on the team. He’s vital to everything they do on the court, and though he’s not the kind of transformative superstar the man taken one pick above him in 2007 is (Kevin Durant), Horford is still very useful and very necessary to the Hawks.
The second question is harder to answer. Last season, when they were clearly struggling in the playoffs, they were dispatched with ruthless efficiency by the Cavaliers, who were playing without Kevin Love. This year, I doubt they could beat Cleveland four times out of seven even at their best.
Atlanta could very well resign Al Horford. As for contending for a title, their chances are almost zero. It’s not so much about the Cavaliers as it is the sheer dominance of the Warriors and Spurs out West.
Los Angeles Clippers: The question here revolves around Blake Griffin, and whether he’s fit to be the leader of the Clippers, or to even be a member of the Clippers.
After punching a staff member and breaking his hand, then serving the suspension he earned for that after being reactivated, Griffin is now thrust into a high-pressure situation that he helped cause. He must help the Clippers reach the Conference Finals for the first time ever, helping to validate the career of the greatest point guard of his generation in Chris Paul, after not playing significant minutes since Christmas, while faced with the two most dominant teams in recent memory.
One of those teams, the Warriors, just tied the regular-season record for most wins. And they will be the opponent for Los Angeles should they power past the Blazers or Mavericks and reach the second round.
The quest of the Clippers is hopeless and doomed to fail. What happens after that failure is the real question here: will they trade Griffin, or try to find a way to somehow improve their team given the severe handicaps their salary situation has placed on them, even with the rise in the salary cap?
The Clippers have a classic look about them, that of a very good to great team, overshadowed by a historic franchise. Kind of like the early-90s Blazers teams that were swallowed up by the Pistons and Bulls teams of that era. The fates of Paul and Griffin and DeAndre Jordan are likely to mirror those of Drexler (before he was traded) and Porter and Kersey: great players destined to be mere speed bumps.
Any Other Year, They’d Be Right There…
Toronto Raptors: I don’t rightly know where this team truly belongs. I place them here because they’re the second-best team in the East, even though they’re unproven with a history of playoff failures. Truthfully, they’re too dependent on an average defense and free throws to be a true threat.
They should finally be able to win a playoff series, though! That’s something.
Oklahoma City Thunder: This team has been totally overshadowed by the Warriors and Spurs. They might well resemble the early-90s Blazers better than the Clippers do.
Nine years out of ten, this year’s Thunder would be a sure-fire championship contender. This season? They’re just hoping they can survive the Spurs…in the second round. Ludicrous that a team with two top-five players in Durant and Russell Westbrook would be reduced to this, but that’s how damn good the Warriors and Spurs have been.
Cleveland Cavaliers: This team is the prohibitive favorite in the Eastern Conference, mostly because they have the King of the East, LeBron James, playing for them. Teams that have had James on their team have advanced to the NBA Finals every year from 2011 on, and there’s no plausible reason why LeBron shouldn’t reach his sixth straight Finals this year, despite whatever feeble objections the Raptors, Hawks, or Heat may raise.
Six straight Finals…no matter what the results of the Finals series he’s been involved in, LeBron James is on the cusp of achieving something that only Bill Russell has ever done, and that in the 1960s when there were only a dozen or so teams and the athletes in the East weren’t anywhere near Russell in terms of ability or drive. Magic and Bird never went to six straight Finals. Neither did Kobe Bryant, or Tim Duncan, or Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Even the GOAT himself, Michael Jordan, hasn’t done what LeBron James is poised to do.
I fear that in the winner-take-all culture of athletics, James’ accomplishments might get lost in the mists of time. I fear that forty years later, as an old man, I’d be expounding on the awesome spectacle that was seeing LeBron James play basketball, only to have some snot-nosed teenager sneer at me, “He didn’t win enough titles though!” Like that somehow invalidates the struggles he went through to elevate those teams into the position to win those titles in the first place.
LeBron’s lack of success in the Finals is at once validating and distressing to me. Validating, because I hear from folks to this day (and some folks that write for OSN…you know who you are) that say basketball is not a team sport, yet teams are trumping the greatest individual talent of my generation. Distressing, because the supreme athlete of my generation may be painted by history as a failure simply because he couldn’t defeat the Spurs or Warriors, two teams that stress team over individual…
…Because the supreme athlete of my generation committed the unpardonable sin of not being Michael Jordan.
The Only Real Challenger to the Throne
San Antonio Spurs: Even after losing their first home game of the season to the Warriors, the Spurs are still the prime threat to them, the chief obstacle to Golden State going back-to-back.
We were deprived of a Spurs-Warriors matchup last year when the Clippers got uppity and eliminated the defending champion Spurs in the first round in 2015. Now, with the Spurs improved by the addition of LaMarcus Aldridge and the full maturation of Kawhi Leonard, all that’s standing in the way between them and the sixth NBA title of their history is the team that just handed them their first home loss, and the team that tied the 1995-16 Chicago Bulls for the most wins in a season…
The Once and (Maybe) Future Kings
Golden State Warriors: The superlatives lauded upon this team are scattered throughout the Internet; just go to ESPN or Sports Illustrated, and you’ll see all you want to about this team’s significance in the NBA’s history.
Just like I will with LeBron James, I feel like I will be describing with loving detail the Golden State Warriors of the last two years when I’m old and grey. Assuming for the moment that I’ll be spared death until I get to that point (my forebears had an unfortunate habit of dying young), I will probably spend my declining years pontificating about the greatness of the Golden State Warriors, circa 2015-16.
Just like last year, I’m picking them to win the NBA Championship. But unlike last year, I feel they might face legitimate challenges; I doubt the Spurs will allow themselves to be ousted in the first round this year, and the Cavaliers actually had a 2-1 lead in the Finals last year with a depleted roster.
The Warriors will be favored to overcome all in their path, and for the people of forty years in the future, it might have seemed inevitable that they’d overcome. That’s the undeniable power of hindsight, though; hindsight is ALWAYS right. Unless you have actually lived in the moment, actually seen the events that took place, you cannot really KNOW what it was like to see a particular team play, nor how it felt when two franchises were struggling to assert themselves in a series, and the ebb and flow of that series as it took place.
What I’m really saying is that Golden State is a team that should be treasured, for we likely won’t see the likes of it until people in their thirties now, like myself, grow old. If we see a team like the Warriors ever again. Even if they fail to win the title, appreciate them now while you still can.
You’ll never know if some snot-nosed teenager is curious enough to bug you about what it was like to see Stephen Curry play, after all.
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