2015 College Basketball Preview: Freshmen

Looking ahead to the 2015 NBA Draft, which college freshmen could be one-and-done players and make the move to the next level?

The bright lights of college basketball turn on later this month. Around the country, 351 Division I teams will take the court for the first time, each with the aspirations of an appearance, and ideally a run, in the Big Dance.

From an individual player perspective, however, especially as it pertains to elite prospects, a more accurate goal might revolve around getting to the next level. What will it take as a college freshman to be selected in the lottery in 2015? Or the first round?

One-and-done prospects have revolutionized the draft since the elimination of high school prospects, and 2015 should be no exception to the trend that has overtaken the draft in the past decade. As one can see by looking at the first mock draft of the year, nine of the top 10 prospects graduated high school in 2014. The lone exception is an international player (Mario Hezonja).

Which incoming freshman players could make the leap after just one year in school? Keep a close eye on the following players.

ACC

Jahlil Okafor | C | Duke (Big Board Rank: 1)

Okafor holds the top spot on the big board and mock draft entering the college basketball season, and is among the most complete big man prospects to ever play for Mike Krzyzewski. Okafor can be dominant on both sides of the ball, and is the best low post player in the draft. If he performs as expected, Okafor will be the number one pick.

Justise Winslow | SF | Duke (Big Board Rank: 7)

Winslow has tremendous offensive ability, and will be the Blue Devils’ top shooter and wing scorer as a freshman. Winslow has experience, like Okafor, playing internationally with Team USA’s U17 team, where he was able to stuff the statistics beyond the points column. Winslow needs to show he can defend other elite athletes, but he enters the season poised to be selected in the top ten.

Tyus Jones | PG | Duke (Big Board Rank: 15)

Another Dukie? Jones is a late-lottery prospect entering the season, but the lack of quality point guards above him on the big board could push him higher in the draft, potentially into the top five. Jones is a terrific playmaker, and should be given plenty of opportunity to run the show for Duke. He must be efficient and shoot a high percentage to warrant the lofty draft position.

Justin Jackson | SF | North Carolina (Big Board Rank: 36)

Jackson continues the North Carolina trend of recruiting uber-athletic forwards who can make a difference on both sides of the ball. The last few, however, have not made enough of a difference as a freshman to be in contention as a one-and-done player. Jackson is a very good scorer who needs to improve his outside shooting. With JP Tokoto playing alongside, and Theo Pinson at a similar position, can Jackson get enough exposure to stake his claim as a one-and-done candidate?

Kaleb Joseph | PG | Syracuse (Big Board Rank: N/A)

Looking at Syracuse’s roster, Joseph is the prime candidate to take the reigns as Jim Boeheim’s point guard for the 2014-15 season. A top-50 recruit according to both Yahoo and ESPN, Joseph possesses the requisite size for an elite NBA prospect, and shows good court vision for a freshman. If Joseph shoots a good percentage and limits his turnovers, scouts will turn out by the dozens to get a good look at Joseph.

Others to keep an eye on: Theo Pinson (North Carolina), Chris McCullough (Syracuse)

Big Ten

James Blackmon | SG | Indiana (Big Board Rank: 27)

Blackmon will compete with teammate Yogi Ferrell for the scoring title at Indiana as a freshman, and may be the best outside shooter in the freshman class. Blackmon is undersized for a two-guard at just 6-2, but has an offensive repertoire that could have scouts give him multiple looks. While he is not a lottery prospect at this point, he could wind up as a mid-first round pick if he leaves IU after one year.

D’Angelo Russell | SG | Ohio State (Big Board Rank: 44)

Russell can flat out score, and it is exactly what Thad Matta will ask him to do. Russell will play the role left vacant by Lenzelle Smith Jr., though Russell is the far superior player. Russell is athletic and quick, but needs to add lower body strength to handle the more physical guards in the conference. Defense is a concern for Russell, who will go up against the likes of Caris LeVert and Blackmon, but his long-term potential could get him drafted in the first round.

Others to keep an eye on: Keita Bates-Diop (Ohio State), Romelo Trimble (Maryland)

Big 12

Myles Turner | C | Texas (Big Board Rank: 3)

Turner is a jack-of-all-trades center. He is a terrific post defender and is very skilled offensively, showing range out to the college three-point line. He could stand to get stronger, which will help his rebounding, but Turner is good with his positioning and should be a near double-double player in year one. Turner’s game is similar to Isaiah Austin’s, but with stronger intangibles.

Cliff Alexander | PF | Kansas (Big Board Rank: 6)

Alexander could be a man amongst boys in the Big 12, as he enters Kansas at 240 pounds. From an NBA perspective, Alexander is slightly undersized at 6-9, though similarly sized players have found their niche in the NBA over the past five seasons. Alexander could play a role similar to how Jared Sullinger was used at Ohio State, though Alexander may not be as polished offensively coming in.

Kelly Oubre | SG | Kansas (Big Board Rank: 8)

Oubre’s scoring will lead Kansas to some tough victories, and he will keep shooting through any slump. The guard is a very good athlete who can slash and defend opposing wings, though shooting is his primary attribute. He will need to limit his turnovers and assert himself as a primary scoring option. With Wayne Selden returning at a similar position, Oubre needs to fight to be consistently on the floor.

Others to keep an eye on: Jordan Barnett (Texas)

Pac 12

Stanley Johnson | SF | Arizona (Big Board Rank: 5)

Johnson joins perhaps the best defensive lineup in the country at Arizona. The freshman will compete with Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Brandon Ashley for minutes at small forward, but should rise above and be the teams top scorer. Johnson is a truly elite talent who can score from all parts of the floor and defend quick and strong opponents. He could be a Kawhi Leonard-esque player in the NBA.

Kevon Looney | PF | UCLA (Big Board Rank: 31)

Looney currently sits just outside the top 30 on the big board, but is a versatile high-post option that can play both forward positions. Looney is 6-8, and may be slightly undersized to play the four in the NBA, though his skill set fits that of a college power forward more than a small forward. Looney is a capable outside shooter, and will get many of the looks given to the Wear twins last year by Steve Alford. Playing next to Tony Parker, Looney is the most skilled big man on UCLA’s roster.

Others to watch: Dusan Ristic (Arizona), JaQuan Lyle (Oregon)

SEC

Karl Towns Jr. | C | Kentucky (Big Board Rank: 4)

Towns is one of very few players who could usurp Okafor as the 2015 Draft’s top prospect. Towns is a legit seven footer who can score from inside and out and block shots inside. He runs the floor well for a center, and should get plenty of transition baskets. The biggest hurdle to Towns’ one-and-done candidacy is the supreme depth of Kentucky’s frontcourt. Willie Cauley-Stein, Alex Poythress, Dakari Johnson, Marcus Lee and Trey Lyles will all vie for frontcourt minutes. Towns is talented enough to see a lot of playing time, but his numbers may be affected because of Kentucky’s depth.

Trey Lyles | PF | Kentucky (Big Board Rank: 14)

Lyles is a long shot to be a one-and-done player for the reasons mentioned above, but he is a top-ten caliber recruit who would be an instant starter on nearly every college team in the country. Lyles can play both forward positions, but is more suited as a four. With legitimate NBA size at 6-10 and 255 pounds, Lyles is skilled in the post and can be a force on the glass. Without starter-level minutes however, Lyles may be better served leaving UK after his sophomore year.

Others to keep an eye on: Devin Booker (Kentucky), Devin Robinson (Florida)

Other

Isaiah Whitehead | SG | Seton Hall (Big Board Rank: 43)

Whitehead joins Kevin Willard’s lineup at Seton Hall and should be a prolific scorer from the start. Whitehead gets the benefit of playing for a team that needs him instantly, and could rely on him to be the leading scorer. Whitehead’s defense will be put to the test, as he is a far more ready player on the offensive end. He could average 20 points per game as a freshman, which could be enough to get him drafted in the first round.

Rashad Vaughn | SG | UNLV (Big Board Rank: 74)

Vaughn possesses tremendous size for a wing-prospect at 6-6 and 200 pounds. He does most of his damage on the offensive end, and is placed in a similar situation as Whitehead in that he can be the team’s primary scorer right away. Vaughn’s ability to create his own shot could shoot him up draft boards in a similar fashion as Zach LaVine of UCLA last year. Keep an eye on Vaughn’s efficiency and shot selection.

Others to keep an eye on: Domantas Sabonis (Gonzaga), Terry Larrier (VCU), Daniel Hamilton (UConn), Isaac Copeland (Georgetown)

In general, it is unrealistic that 29 freshman will declare for the draft. It is very likely to see the top half of the lottery flush with first-year college players, but many of the players listed, especially in the “Others to keep an eye on” section, need minutes and scoring opportunities to fall in their favor. Each name on this list has a chance to be a one-and-done player; and, the athletes listed above who choose to wait on the NBA will certainly factor into future drafts.

Stay tuned for part two of our college basketball preview, as it pertains to the NBA Draft. The sophomore, junior and senior classes, plus the top international prospects will be analyzed prior to the start of the college season.