2015 College Basketball Preview: Sophomores

Looking ahead to the 2015 NBA Draft, which sophomores will step into the limelight as potential first-round picks?

There are many reasons for a one-and-done prospect to stay in school. Without a guarantee of being a mid-first-round pick, it can be incredibly risky to declare without guaranteed money available. A player’s skill level, maturity or even loving the college atmosphere and way of life can keep an elite prospect in school beyond his freshman year. It happens each spring.

Many of the sophomores on this list could have been first-round picks last year. The question marks surrounding many related to raw offensive skills or the ability to defend NBA athletes. Often, these are the two most repeated attributes to be written about when a potential first-round freshman elects to stay in school. It’s largely true, to an extent.

Players who return have no guarantee of improving, or even maintaining, their draft stock. Some prospects who postpone entering the draft see their stock fall dramatically due to a lack of improvement or simply more scouting from opponents. James Michael McAdoo could have been a top-five pick after his freshman year but now finds himself an undrafted free agent looking to latch onto the end of a roster.

Pessimism aside, sophomores will comprise a large part of the first round in 2015, especially in the mid-late range. Some on this list will exceed expectations and be selected in the top 10. The strategy worked wonders for Nik Stauskas, who was likely a second-round pick had he declared after his freshman year. Who will be the ones to stand tall above the rest?

ACC

Terry Rozier | PG | Louisville (Big Board Rank: 35)

Can Rozier step into the lead guard role vacated by Russ Smith? Rozier likely shares the role with Chris Jones, though he is the best candidate to break out in the Cardinals’ backcourt. After averaging roughly 19 minutes a night as a freshman, posting 7.0 points, 3.1 rebounds and 1.9 assists per game, the point guard will be looked upon to be both a scorer and facilitator. He is a good defender who reads passing lanes to pick up easy steals. Efficiency will be key for Rozier, who could be a lottery pick by June.

Demetrius Jackson | PG | Notre Dame (Big Board Rank: 42)

Like Rozier, Jackson was forced to play in a reserve role as a freshman, albeit a pivotal one. Jackson recorded averages of 22.2 minutes, 6.0 points, 2.1 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game in his first year in South Bend. Jackson will fill the void left by Eric Atkins and will be relied upon to score from both guard positions and provide good court vision. Jerian Grant returns after suspension and will likely be the go-to player for the Irish, though Jackson’s opportunity to see an increased role should pay dividends to both his draft stock and Notre Dame’s ACC fate. At the Nike Hoop Summit two years ago, Jackson more than held his own against a highly competitive World team that included guards Dennis Schroeder and Sergey Karasev- both first-round picks two drafts ago.

Others to keep an eye on: Mangkok Mathiang (Louisville), Anthony Barber (NC State), Kennedy Meeks (North Carolina),

Big Ten

Troy Williams | SF | Indiana (Big Board Rank: 58)

Indiana lost Noah Vonleh as its best frontcourt player. Yogi Ferrell and James Blackmon will step in as the top two guards, while Williams will play small forward and stretch-4 for the Hoosiers. Williams is an exceptional athlete who will be seen on SportsCenter’s top-10 plays list numerous times this year due to his dunking ability. Need proof? High-flying gifts aside, Williams needs to show scouts he can become a consistent team defender and connect on shots from midrange and beyond at a high percentage. He will be a double-double threat from the wing.

Zak Irvin | SF | Michigan (Big Board Rank: 97)

Irvin steps onto the Michigan wing to replace Glenn Robinson III, poised to make a run for placement on an All-Big Ten team. At 6-6, Irvin has good size for an NBA wing, although he is undersized against some of the bigger small forwards. Irvin averaged 6.7 points and 1.3 rebounds in just over 15 minutes per game as a freshman and will likely trade off with Caris LeVert as the team’s top scorer. Irvin is one of the best shooters in the conference and needs to let it fly often. As an average defender with very low block and steal rates, he needs to improve his focus on that side of the ball.

Big 12

Wayne Selden | SG | Kansas (Big Board Rank: 22)

Selden was the third in a trio of elite prospects in Bill Self’s 2013 recruiting class. Andrew Wiggins and Joel Embiid are now in the NBA, and now it is Selden’s turn to shine at Kansas. A terrific scorer who can create his own shot, Selden will now face the pressures of being a focal point of the opponent’s scouting report. Will he maintain his efficiency? Selden averaged nearly 10 points per game to go with 2.6 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game, while shooting 43 percent from the field. Selden could be a top-10 pick if he can establish himself as one of the top scorers in the country from the wing. Kelly Oubre adds competition to the mix, making it less than certain who will wind up as the Jayhawks’ primary offensive option.

Marcus Foster | PG | Kansas State (Big Board Rank: 37)

Foster stands at 6-2 and is built to finish after contact. Foster led Kansas State in scoring as a freshman and will again lead Bruce Weber’s squad in a fairly deep Big 12. Foster is a quality athlete and perimeter shooter who can create scoring opportunities for himself. The biggest improvement in his game needs to be his ability to create for others. Foster’s 2.5 assists per game should rise above four as a sophomore. A second weakness to Foster’s game is his ability to defend quicker point guards, as he can show a tendency to foul rather than moving his feet. Keep an eye on his matchups against Texas, Kansas and Iowa State.

Isaiah Taylor | PG | Texas (Big Board Rank: 46)

Taylor will look to be more efficient as a sophomore, especially pertaining to his field goal percentage. Taylor averaged 12.7 points, 3.3 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.1 steals in 30.1 minutes as a freshman but shot an underwhelming 39 percent from the field and just 26 percent from 3-point range. The balance in Taylor’s game is enticing, but until he can become at least an average shooter, defenses will be able to sag and force him to shoot.

Another to keep an eye on: Monte Morris (Iowa State)

Pac-12

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | SF | Arizona (Big Board Rank: 16)

Hollis-Jefferson returns to a crowded frontcourt rotation, though he is expect to start at small forward, assuming Stanley Johnson is the shooting guard. Next to Johnson, Ashley and Tarczewski, Hollis-Jefferson helps form one of the best (if not, the top) defensive frontcourt in the country. A freak athlete, RHJ will get some of the same looks offensively afforded to Aaron Gordon last year, especially in transition. Still, he is raw offensively and needs to develop an outside jump shot. He could be a top-10 pick in June or the second coming of Jerami Grant, who fell to the second round last year.

Jabari Bird | SG | California (Big Board Rank: 17)

Bird has prototypical NBA shooting guard size at 6-6 and could be one of the top scorers in the Pac-12 as a sophomore. Bird can create his own shot and connect from well beyond the college 3-point line. Athletically, Bird is average by NBA standards, though his style of play leads one to believe such non-exceptional athleticism will not be an issue at the next level. Bird has long arms and should be able to defend adequately, if not better, at the next level. His offense will bloom, but look to his defensive improvements when judging whether he belongs in the lottery.

Nigel Williams-Goss | PG | Washington (Big Board Rank: 26)

Williams-Goss might be the best shooter in the Pac-12. An all-around player, Williams-Goss returns to Seattle as UW’s leading returning scorer and distributor (13.4 points, 4.4 assists per game). At 6-3, Goss has good size for an NBA point guard and is able to be a force on the glass from the guard position (4.4 rebounds per game). If Williams-Goss shoots the ball well as a sophomore and shows an improvement in his defense, we could be looking at a top-10 pick. Williams-Goss is among my favorite returning players eligible for the 2015 draft.

Another to keep an eye on: Isaac Hamilton (UCLA)

SEC

Bobby Portis | PF | Arkansas (Big Board Rank: 18)

Portis may have been the best freshman in the country last year without a tremendous deal of hype. Playing for Arkansas, Portis put together a 12.3-point, 6.8-rebound per game season as a freshman. As he earned more playing time, the Razorbacks reaped the benefits. At 6-11, Portis ranks among the best rebounders in the SEC and has the potential to block shots, though shot blocking not his forte at this point. In year two, Portis should develop as a back-to-the-basket scorer and average a near double-double. At 6-11 and athletic, Portis should be a first rounder in 2015.

Chris Walker | PF | Florida (Big Board Rank: 19)

Walker got a late start in his freshman campaign, missing the first 21 games due to eligibility issues. Walker will step into a starting role in Florida’s frontcourt next to Dorian Finney-Smith and be looked upon for scoring from both the interior and perimeter. Walker has good touch out to the high post, though he’s not fully capable of being a knock-down shooter from beyond 20 feet. Walker is an effective rebounder and shot blocker but needs to add strength in his lower body to compete with more physical opponents. His potential is off the charts.

Andrew Harrison | PG | Kentucky (Big Board Rank: 21)
Aaron Harrison | SG | Kentucky (Big Board Rank: 23)

The Harrison twins largely disappointed as freshmen in John Calipari’s system despite helping Kentucky to the Final Four in 2014. Andrew, the point guard, struggled with his decision-making and scoring efficiency, averaging 2.7 turnovers per game and shooting just 36 percent from the floor. He needs to improve his ability to finish at the rim. Aaron is a shooting guard, as he does not handle the ball as well as Andrew and shot a better percentage than his brother last year in Lexington. He became a staple in NCAA Tournament highlights after a series of clutch 3-pointers to help Kentucky advance deep in the field. Aaron is a somewhat selfish offensive player who gets tunnel vision with the ball.

Despite the negative remarks about the twins, they both remain very intriguing NBA draft prospects. Both have NBA bodies and stand at 6-6. Additionally, they both can rebound from the guard position and are very good athletes by NBA standards. In a lot of ways they remain in the first-round picture based on past reputation and hype and will be expected to produce mightily out of the gate for a Kentucky team many are rating as the preseason No. 1.

Kasey Hill | PG | Florida (Big Board Rank: 24)

I will admit – it is a slight stretch to list Hill in the preseason top 30. His potential to break out in Billy Donovan’s offense and defense is immense and should happen sooner rather than later. Hill is not a good shooter but can finish at the rim and in transition due to his lightning-quick first step. Hill is a terrific on-ball defender at 6-1 and will draw many tough matchups throughout the Gators’ schedule this season. He’s a a legitimate threat to lead the SEC in assists after averaging 3.1 per game in 2013-14 despite only seeing 22 minutes of action per game, some of those next to Scottie Wilbeken. I am expecting big things from Hill right out of the gate.

Others to keep an eye on: Jordan Mickey (LSU), Jarell Martin (LSU), Dakari Johnson (Kentucky), Marcus Lee (Kentucky)

Others

Amidah Brimah | C | UConn (Big Board Rank: 33)

Perhaps the key to UConn competing for back-to-back championships is the continued emergence of center Amidah Brimah. Hailing from Accra, Ghana, Brimah is one of the top shot blockers in the country and has the requisite size for an elite NBA center prospect at 7-0 and 230 pounds. Brimah struggled mightily in staying out of foul trouble as a freshman, averaging three fouls in just 16 minutes per game. Brimah posted averages of 4.1 points, 3.0 rebounds and 2.3 blocks as a first-year player and should be expected to double each stat if he can earn a starting role and stay on the floor.

E.C. Matthews | PG | Rhode Island (Big Board Rank: 48)

Matthews is the best player in the country you have never heard of. Playing at Rhode Island in the Atlantic 10, Matthews emerged as Dan Hurley’s go-to player and point guard as a freshman and did not disappoint despite Rhody’s less-than-stellar overall record. Matthews, at 6-5, averaged 14.3 points, 4.3 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game as a freshman. His turnover rate could stand to decrease, and his shooting percentage could use a bump from last season as well. If he can prove to scouts he is a legitimate NBA point guard, he will go in the first round. Circle his matchup against VCU and Briante Weber on your calendar; it will be one you do not want to miss.

Rodney Purvis | SG | UConn (Big Board Rank: 64)

Purvis stepped out of the draft picture for a year after transferring from N.C. State after his freshman year. Playing for Mark Gottfried in Raleigh, Purvis showed flashes of becoming an All-ACC player and legitimate NBA prospect from the off-guard position. He posted 8.3 points, 2.4 rebounds and 1.3 assists as a freshman. A terrific scorer, Purvis struggled some at N.C. State with his shot selection, though he still managed to shoot 44 percent from the floor and nearly 39 percent from 3-point range. Now that he is a primary offensive option, Purvis will likely lead UConn in scoring as a sophomore and have scouts flocking to Storrs.

Others to keep an eye on: Mamadou N’Diaye (UC-Irvine), Jalen Reynolds (Xavier)

Underclassmen continue to dominate the NBA draft discussion – a trend unlikely to change without significant changes to the next collective bargaining agreement. The above 29 players are all poised to grab larger roles and produce at a higher level after showing promise as freshmen and in high school. Is year two of college the time the potential reaches fruition? If it does, will the players take the leap to the NBA? As always, only time will tell, so make sure you are watching when it does.