Evaluating college talent and projecting their eventual destinations is what makes the NFL Draft process such an entertaining and debate-provoking area of the NFL off-season. But once these players are drafted, the focus begins to shift away from their college evaluation and more towards how they fit with their new team.
Looking at the top offensive rookies from a fantasy-focused perspective, I ranked, evaluated, and projected each of the top-25 rookies and what they may produce this year.
Todd Gurley leads the way despite injury concerns, but there is good reason to be bullish on Melvin Gordon and Kevin White, and to give pause during the draft on Tevin Coleman and Nelson Agholor.
- Todd Gurley, RB, St. Louis
Due to Gurley’s body type, physicality as an interior runner, and big play ability despite being 230+ pounds, he has and will continue to receive plenty of Adrian Peterson comparisons. Peterson had a remarkable rookie season that included a new single game rushing record and rookie of the year honors.
Gurley was rumored to be set to start the season on the non-football injury (NFI) list, but it now appears as though he’ll be ready for the start of training camp. He’ll still need to beat out Tre Mason for the starting job and lead carry duties.
Despite those hurdles, Gurley’s elite talent should make the fears of drafting him worth it. The Rams have loaded up on offensive linemen the last two drafts and the offense will be built around Gurley. Adrian Peterson averaged 95 yards per game in his rookie season, and I think Gurley could have similar season-end numbers, despite potentially missing the first game or two.
Projection: 240 carries, 1,100 yards, 9 TDs; 30 receptions, 300 yards, 2 TDs.
- Melvin Gordon, RB, San Diego
Melvin Gordon, of the most impressive college running backs in recent years, takes over the San Diego Chargers running game, one of the least consistent units in 2014. The Chargers averaged just 3.65 yard per carry in 2014, forced to use Brandon Oliver as the lead runner for a large part of the season.
Looking back to 2013, Ryan Matthews lead the team with 255 carries, 1255 yards and 6 touchdowns, numbers that Melvin Gordon could replicate if given ample opportunity. Gordon offers the rare combination of patience and elite turn the corner speed on the perimeter, consistently able to pick up positive yardage and take advantage of openings linebackers allow.
He won’t get much work on third down players due to the Chargers other running backs, but he’ll likely be the feature back for most of the season and a high-end RB2.
Projection: 250 carries, 1200 yards, 8 TDs; 15 receptions, 120 yards, 0 TDs
- Amari Cooper, WR, Oakland
Last year’s receiver class spoiled fans and NFL teams and discounted the fact that it’s receiver is one of the more difficult positions to adjust from college to pro. While the 2015 class was hyped up as well, it’s naïve to think this class can replicate 2014’s output or depth.
That being said, Amari Cooper is both highly refined for a college receiver and couldn’t be in a better situation to thrive in year one. Cooper will be the feature receiver in an offense that offers a highly thought of young quarterback, running back depth, and a scheme that plays into Cooper’s strengths. Cooper has great after catch ability on underneath routes that can set up double move vertical plays for Derek Carr.
I wouldn’t expect production like Odell Beckham Jr. or Mike Evans because he’ll be the most schemed against member of the Raiders offense, but he’ll be a volume receiver with more than a few 100-yard games as a rookie. I look to what Allen Robinson of Jacksonville did before he got hurt a year ago as a baseline for Cooper’s per game averages and potential in 2015.
Projection: 80 receptions, 920 yards, 5 touchdowns
- TJ Yeldon, RB, Jacksonville
Last off-season, the Jaguars invested in Toby Gerhart, hoping he could be the lead back in an offense that needed to have a stabilizing force as they tried to build the defense. Gerhart’s expectations were a major bust, and he was relegated to back-up and situationally duty during the year, dealing with injuries and inconsistency.
Yeldon, drafted early in the second round with the expectation of being the feature back in 2015 and beyond, has little competition for lead back duties in Jacksonville, as the team’s depth chart is littered with more situational runners.
However, Yeldon’s lack of elite athletic upside or big play ability should limit some expectations in year one, at least fantasy-wise, and Alabama runner struggles (outside of the massive Eddie Lacy) should give some pause. He should produce a better version of Bishop Sankey’s rookie year production, but that’s the comparison that tempers my expectations.
Projection: 240 carries, 940 yards, 5 TDs; 15 receptions, 90 yards, 0 TDs
- Ameer Abdullah, RB, Detroit
After a highly productive career at Nebraska, Abdullah became a favorite among draft evaluators due to his quickness, low center of gravity against contact, and big play ability on interior runs. But while it didn’t cause him to slip in the draft, Abdullah’s small hands and smaller stature gave some evalutors, myself included, cause for concern in terms of fumbling issues and durability.
College evaluation aside, Abdullah is an awesome situation to produce as a rookie and be a key part of a highly productive offense. He’ll be splitting time with Joique Bell to start the season, and has the potential to be a 20 carry a game runner by mid-season. Bell will likely retain goal line carries and Theo Riddick will be the lead receiver out of the backfield, but there should be close to 200 touches for Abdullah as a rookie, if not more.
Projection: 170 carries, 800 yards, 4 TDs; 15 receptions, 120 yards, 1 TD
- Tevin Coleman, RB, Indiana
Atlanta was in the bottom third of the league in rushing carries, yards per carry, and rushes longer than 20 yards. Despite drafting Devonta Freeman in the 4th round last year, the Falcons opted to draft another early round running back to replace the now retired Steven Jackson.
Coleman, a bit of an upright, plant and go running back, offers a different skill set than Freeman, and the two could split carries pretty evenly after training camp. However, Coleman likely offers just as good receiving ability if not better, and is a more complete between the tackles runner.
The Falcons aren’t afraid to utilize their perceived depth at the position, which may further cut into Coleman’s carries.
Projection: 160 carries, 660 yards, 6 TD; 15 receptions, 100 yards, 0 TDs
- Kevin White, WR, Chicago
After trading Brandon Marshall, the Bears were all but locked in to drafting a receiver with their 7th overall pick, as they had no suitable starter replacement for their one-time feature receiver. White will surely take over the starting spot opposite new #1 receiver Alshon Jeffery, barring a terrible mini-camp.
With little competition (Marquess Wilson likely won’t be trusted), White’s only meaningful competition for targets outside of Jeffery are newly signed Eddie Royal in the slot and tight end Martellus Bennett (who should have a monster year as well).
Last year, Jeffery, Marshall, Bennett and Wilson combined for 253 receptions, with Marshall grabbing 61 of those. By comparison, Adam Gase’s 2014 Broncos offense had its top-four receivers boast 304 receptions. Expecting White to grab at least 60 receptions seems more than reasonable based on the offense and the role he’s filling, though I’d expect early season struggles and less touchdowns than Marshall.
Projection: 60 receptions, 700 yards, 4 touchdowns
- Devante Parker, WR, Miami
Before the 2015 NFL Draft, we had Devante Parker above Kevin White, and I was told there was a possibility he could have gone before White in the weeks leading up to the draft. The Dolphins landed their second most coveted target (first was Todd Gurley) with the 14th pick, and he’ll be expected to take over as the #1 receiver during the season.
However, like we’ll see with White, receiver isn’t a position that is easy to transition into. Parker’s value as a mid-field target with great extension away from his frame, finishing ability and run after catch ability should translate well, but other routes and areas of the field may not be refined until later in the season.
Add in that the team already has two established young receivers in Kenny Stills and Jarvis Landry to assume most of the early season targets, along with veteran Greg Jennings, so the pressure won’t be on. But by mid-season, I’d look for Parker to emerge as one of Ryan Tannehill’s best weapons in the mid-field.
Projection: 45 receptions, 750 yards, 5 touchdowns
- Duke Johnson, RB, Cleveland
After entering 2014 with free agent signing Ben Tate, mid-round college-productive rookie Terrance West, and high-upside undrafted signing Isaiah Crowell, the Browns running back unit had ample potential to get at least a little excited.
A year later, the Browns already moved on from Ben Tate (during the 2014 season), Terrance West is 4th on the depth chart, and only Crowell has shown signs of being at least a rotational back. Enter Duke Johnson, who’s big play ability and versatility may be relied upon instantly and in multiple areas of the offense.
He’s already the #2 back on the depth chart and he’ll likely stay there all season, as long as Crowell can stay healthy, because he’ll also be used as the team’s best short-area receiving threat. He should fill a Shane Vereen-like role for Cleveland, with much of his value being a pass-catching threat, but offers more homerun ability as a runner and run-after catch option.
Projection: 100 carries, 400 yards, 3 TDs; 45 receptions, 350 yards, 2 TDs
- Nelson Agholor, WR, Philadelphia
From a player’s perspective, playing in a Chip Kelly offense is an awesome opportunity, as you’re used to the best of your abilities only, not asked to shoulder a heavy load, and have plenty of chances for big plays and touchdowns.
From a fantasy perspective, Chip Kelly players should be selected with caution and pessimism. Many coaches say that they want to put players in a position to succeed, but Kelly will truly change his entire gameplan and offensive focuses week-to-week, and wildly different outputs should be expected for every player in the offense.
Enter Agholor, who was the team’s first round pick and expected replacement for Jeremy Maclin in the offense. But expecting 85 receptions is naïve, as Josh Huff’s role is likely to increase, along with Jordan Matthews becoming an even bigger part of the offense. Finally, USC receivers haven’t had great success thus far, from Patrick Turner to Damien Williams to Robert Woods to Marqise Lee. Agholor is expected to be better than those four, and certainly plays different than them, but pessimism in USC receivers is unfounded.
Projection: 50 receptions, 700 yards, 4 touchdowns
Best of the Rest
- Jameis Winston, QB, Tampa Bay
Near lock to be the starter Week 1, Winston has ample talent at receiver and tight end. But there are at least 15 quarterbacks who should out-produce and be more efficient in 2015.
- David Johnson, RB, Arizona
One of the best pass-catchers and pass-blockers in recent draft history, he’ll have an instant impact there. He could be the feature back early in the season if Ellington struggles.
- Marcus Mariota, QB, Tennessee
He’ll likely start the season behind Zach Mettenberger, but once he does assume the starting spot, he may have similar output as Vince Young during his rookie year in Tennessee.
- David Cobb, RB, Tennessee
Bishop Sankey didn’t seize his feature back opportunity, but he’s assumed to be the 20-25 carry-a-game runner. But Cobb has 2013 Zac Stacy upside based on running style and opportunity.
- Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Tennessee
Justin Hunter’s recent assault will likely push him off the Titans roster, leaving a void for Green-Beckham to potentially fill. But he hasn’t played football in over a year. He’ll need time, but could be a Kelvin Benjamin-like breakout.
- Breshad Perriman, WR, Baltimore
Perriman is the #2 receiver in a very lackluster unit, and Perriman has Josh Gordon upside. He’s the epitome of a high risk/high reward rookie receiver. I’m leaning towards bust.
- Sammie Coates, WR, Pittsburgh
Coates didn’t have great film out of college, especially in finishing catches downfield, but he’s a great fit for the Steelers offense and if he can impress in training camp, he could have a 600 yard, 6 touchdown season as a big play threat.
- Devin Funchess, WR, Carolina
Expected to be the starter opposite Kelvin Benjamin, Funchess’s upside is a bit questionable based on the fact that he duplicates most of Benjamin’s skills.
- Tyler Kroft, TE, Cincinnati
Kroft is a complete tight end who was under-used in college as a pass-catcher. If Eifert gets injured, Kroft could be a quietly effective tight end starter in fantasy.
- Jay Ajayi, RB, Miami
Injury concerns forced him down draft boards, but if he’s healthy, he could be a high upside backup running back, and a RB3 if Lamar Miller gets hurt.
- Justin Hardy, WR, Atlanta
Clearly a better true slot receiver than Devin Hester, Hardy could do wonders for Matt Ryan in picking up first downs. He’ll be the WR3 in a high powered offense without great tight ends options.
- Jaelen Strong, WR, Houston
One of the best receivers in last year’s class who surprisingly fell on draft day, Strong is a great big-bodied slot presence who could challenge Cecil Shorts for outside snaps by season’s end.
- Maxx Williams, TE, Baltimore
Williams is a complete tight end with plus short-area receiving ability, but the Ravens tight end unit is too loaded to trust Williams in fantasy to start the season.
- Devin Smith, WR, New York Jets
The team’s best vertical threat, Smith will be battling with Jeremy Kerley for targets. Look for Smith to be a far less utilized Brandin Cooks who may be waiting for 2016 for his chance to shine.
- Clive Walford, TE, Oakland
Mychal Rivera is his only competition, and though Walford is more athlete than NFL-ready pass-catcher, he’s a fit for the Derek Carr-lead offense.
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