Here is my one and only stab at a first round mock for 2015. There were no trades explored in this mock, although there will obviously be a number in the first round.
Enjoy and please tell me what you think either on Twitter (@AsherMathews) or in the comments!
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Jameis Winston, QB, Florida St
I know, I know – I’m really going out on a limb here. Winston is the most immediately ready QB and the team needs a QB.
2. Tennessee Titans – Leonard Williams, DT/DE, USC
Perhaps I’m in the minority, but I think the Titans will stick with Zach Mettenberger for at least another season. Why? I think he played well enough to merit a longer look and I also have my doubts the team will be sold on Mariota at 2, when they have many team gaps. Instead, I have them taking the best defender in the draft and strengthening their defensive line. As Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Tim Tebow and countless other quarterbacks can attest to, winning is much easier when you have a defense that can get stops and turnovers.
The exception to this is if the team can trade with San Diego for Philip Rivers. If that can get worked out, the Titans would happily upgrade to Rivers and then I see Mariota going in this spot to San Diego. Because I’m not doing trades for this mock, I have the Titans staying in the slot and taking Williams, the best defensive player, here.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars – Dante Fowler, DE, Florida
The team’s biggest need is a premium pass rusher and Fowler is the best all-around EDGE player in the draft. He’s raw as a pure rusher but has the size and speed to be able to play the edge in the run game and still has the burst and physical presence to be an immediate factor as a pass rusher. He also has a high ceiling, which teams look for in a top pick in the draft.
4. Oakland Raiders – Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
I’ve gone back and forth on this pick in my mind multiple times, as I think Cooper and White are very close, but I’m rolling with Cooper for this mock.
There’s a very good chance that White is the pick as he has many of the traits that McKenzie values: size, speed, athleticism, college production. Last year, McKenzie would have overruled the coaching staff and taken Mike Evans over Sammy Watkins because he coveted Evans’ abilities as a large, physical, and athletic outside receiver and I tend to think that may mean he will prefer the larger, (slightly) faster receiver in Kevin White.
However, I have the Raiders taking Cooper, here, because I also think McKenzie will see Cooper as having a similar ceiling and being more ready to step in and help right away. Cooper is much more refined as a receiver and has excelled in one of the toughest conferences in college football. He understands the complete route tree and can make plays all over the field.
Further, Cooper has a great character and unquestioned work ethic. Of the two, he appears to have a lower bust potential (although nothing is certain in the draft). He has a greater body of work than Smith, who was not considered a top receiver going into the 2014 college season.
For now, I’m going with Cooper as the pick but in my mind the two are very, very close.
5. Washington Fightin’ Snyders – Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson
Washington needs to improve their pass rush and Beasley is the best pure rusher in the draft. He has an elite first step and uses an array of spin moves to get up field. I don’t know where Washington uses him, exactly, but at the top of the draft, especially, teams should take the best players available and work to tailor their defense to his skill set.
Beasley has a skill set that can help Washington to sacks and QB pressures, which is something they’ve really lacked since Brian Orakpo was dominate.
6. New York Jets – Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
Realistically, I think Mariota is probably gone before the sixth pick but I don’t think he goes to any team currently in the top five. Instead, I think a team will trade up to take him at some point. For this mock, I’m not doing trades and so I have him falling out of the top five and to sixth place, where the Jets snap him up to compete with Geno Smith.
This would work out well for Mariota, actually, because if he’s ready to start he can earn it and if he isn’t ready, the team has Smith to run the team until he is.
7. Chicago Bears – Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
The Bears traded away Brandon Marshall in the off-season. In White, they get one of the draft’s top prospects at wide out. White has great athleticism and hands. He adjusts well to balls in flight and times his leaps well to come down with passes. He has great hang time when leaping and good arm length to snag balls out of the air. White is still learning the position but he has a fantastic ceiling in the NFL.
8. Atlanta Falcons – Randy Gregory, DE/OLB, Nebraska
Gregory may not go this early due to concerns over a failed Combine drug test but I think he won’t fall as far as some have alleged. He still possesses rare size and pass rush ability. Teams typically don’t mind if players light up as long as they don’t get caught and risk suspension. The fact that Gregory couldn’t pass a test he knew was coming is definitely not ideal but teams may be willing to look past it to get a player of his ability.
9. New York Giants – Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
Scherff is the closest thing this draft has to a consensus top lineman although there are a lot of good players and no clear-cut favorite. It’s not clear if he’ll play at tackle or guard in the NFL, either, as different teams will feel different ways about him.
I don’t know how the Giants feel about Scherff so this is simply a guess. I think they need an OT and many consider Scherff the top OT in the draft. If the Giants feel the same, this is a good fit for them as he has the size and athleticism to play well in the NFL for years. In addition to being one of the best linemen, technically, this draft Scherff also possesses great functional strength which allows him to fight off defenders even on plays in which he’s caught out of position.
10. St. Louis Rams – DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
Initially, I was looking at an OT to the Rams and I think it’s a fit after losing their right tackle for the last couple of years, former Raider Joe Barksdale, to the Titans in free agency. However, the armchair psychologist in me thinks that the team will not go with an offensive tackle in the top 10 for two years in a row (last year they selected Greg Robinson with the #2 overall pick).
Likewise, I have my doubts about the Rams taking a defender because their defense was already pretty darn good last year and I think they will be heavily focused on improving their offense.
This is where Parker comes in – he is the top skill position at this point and no reach at 10 overall. He can become the #1 the team lacks and help round out their receiving corps, allowing them to play Tavon Austin in the slot with Kenny Britt lining up as the second receiver outside.
11. Minnesota Vikings – Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan St
Minnesota takes the first cornerback of the draft with this pick. Waynes is the consensus top corner and has the size, speed and length to play at a high level in the NFL. The Vikings also reportedly love him and this makes it a great fit.
12. Cleveland Browns – Danny Shelton, NT, Washington
The Browns upgrade their defensive front in a big, big way. Big as in a 340 lb nose tackle to clog up running lanes and eat up two offensive linemen. Shelton has elite size and rare strength and athleticism, too. Those guys tend to go early and the Browns could use improvement along their defensive line and especially at the nose position.
Shelton played a large percentage of defensive snaps when at Washington, which is rare for a defender of his size and bodes well for his continued production in the NFL as the team that gets him will not need to sub him out as frequently as other nose tackles.
13. New Orleans Saints – Shane Ray, OLB/DE, Missouri
The Saints are looking to improve their defense, a process they started this offseason by trading some key offensive pieces, most notably star TE Jimmy Graham, in a move to get additional draft choices.
In Ray, the Saints get a player that many thought could be a top 10 pick. Ray is a bit of a tweener but he has great physical skills and can step in and help a defense rush the passer right away.
14. Miami Dolphins – Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
The Dolphins have a need at cornerback and Johnson fits the bill. He has the physical skills to be a good coverage corner in the NFL and can step in right away to help a team that needs secondary help.
15. San Francisco 49ers – Arik Armstead, DE/DT, Oregon
The 49ers have a big need for inside linebacker with the retirements of Patrick Willis and Chris Borland but there isn’t an ILB that fits at this spot so in my mock the team works to upgrade their defensive front seven with the physically imposing, if raw, Armstead.
Armstead has the size, strength and both body/arm length to be able to play the 5-technique for a 3-4 team and the 49ers need to groom additional players at this position with Justin Smith already 36 years old. The 49ers have Tank Carradine being groomed but Armstead could likely jump him into the starting rotation quickly.
16. Houston Texans – Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
The Texans have a couple of average quarterbacks and poor offensive line talent, which sounds like a recipe for disaster. Peat is a better pass blocker than run blocker but he has great size and can move and in this pass happy league, pass protection is the more important anyway.
For the second half of the first round, click here.
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