If you only learned one thing from the 2015 MLB Winter Meetings in Nashville this past week, it’s this: teams willing to trade top young pitchers are asking for a ridiculous amount of talent in return. Like preposterous amounts of talent.
It won’t be stopping anytime soon, either.
Whether it’s in the free agent market or exploring trade possibilities, a significant investment must be made in order to upgrade the front of rotations. Take how the Atlanta Braves went about their discussions regarding Shelby Miller. They’re currently in the midst of a short rebuild, so they could’ve very easily identified the 25-year-old right-hander as someone to help them bring winning baseball back to Atlanta.
Instead, they saw the astronomical free-agent prices being thrown around – I mean, Jeff Samardzija posted a 4.96 ERA and 1.29 WHIP and still got $90 million from the Giants – and decided that if a team was desperate enough to give them an offer they couldn’t refuse, they wouldn’t.
And they didn’t.
On the other hand, Miami Marlins ace Jose Fernandez probably made more headlines than anyone in Nashville without actually getting traded. Teams tried their best to pry him away from South Beach because, well, it’s the Marlins we’re talking about, but they actually sounded serious about holding onto him.
Hearing that #Marlins had deal working with D-Backs: Jose Fernandez for Corbin, Swanson and 3 others — until Zona landed Shelby Miller.
— clarkspencer (@clarkspencer) December 9, 2015
If they really wanted to deal Fernandez, Miami could’ve gotten a huge haul in return, but they’re awfully smart in not doing so yet. Sure, they’d like to sign him to a contract extension, but are they really going to? Keeping him for now allows Fernandez a full year on the mound to put together some gaudy numbers and prove he’s completely healthy after Tommy John surgery, building his value even more.
Plus, the projected free-agent market for starting pitching next winter looks rather empty – especially when comparing it to this year’s class.
MLB Trade Rumors has the current list, and it’s pretty uninspiring, to say the least. Here are some who have potential to be the most attractive to those in need of pitching:
- Stephen Strasburg
- Brett Anderson
- Jesse Chavez
- Andrew Cashner
- Gio Gonzalez ($12 million club option)
- Derek Holland ($11 million club option)
- Kris Medlen ($10 million mutual option)
- Matt Moore ($7 million club option)
- Ivan Nova
- James Shields (can exercise his opt-out clause)
That’s it. Those choices don’t look nearly as enticing as this year’s class, which included hurlers like David Price, Zack Greinke, Hisashi Iwakuma, Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake and others.
If you thought the above trade proposal from Arizona for Fernandez was ridiculous, along with what Miami was asking the Boston Red Sox for, just wait until next year.
Holding onto Fernandez for 2016 has its risks, but it’s not a huge financial commitment (projected salary of $2.2 million, according to MLBTR) for the club. With that in mind, the Marlins have a chance of cashing in even more next winter if they decide to deal him.
They’ll have some competition when it comes to young, controllable pitchers that could be available, though, and it comes from a division rival: the New York Mets. After the innings limit fiasco with Matt Harvey in September, quite a few fans were cool with the front office trading him away, but the Mets would never consider that – for right now, at least.
For all he’s accomplished and as good as he is, Harvey is only entering his first year of arbitration this winter. While he’ll get a substantial raise from his 2015 salary of $614,125, it’s still very manageable considering the return on their investment.
The entire baseball world saw the incredible amount of young talent New York has on the mound this past October, running out studs like Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz every night… all while Zack Wheeler is still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.
Soon, the front office must make some hard decisions on which hurler they’re going to pay and when it’s going to happen. Since they play in one of the league’s biggest media markets, one would assume they could sign them all to extensions. Unfortunately for Mets fans, it doesn’t work that way.
At least one will eventually get traded, and the perfect time for Sandy Alderson to explore the possibility is next winter.
So, if you thought the price of pitching has been utterly ridiculous this winter, just wait. At this point, it seems as though only Strasburg has a chance at commanding a nine-figure contract. Attention for acquiring top-of-the-rotation pitchers will then mostly turn to the trade market, and that’s when things will start getting nuts.
As each offseason comes and goes, we get not-so-subtle reminders that drafting, developing and signing cornerstone players to long-term deals at the right time is the only way to not break the bank. With a potential feeding frenzy on young pitching set to take place, that message will be loud and clear more than ever soon enough.
Thanks for reading! Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter: @mmusico8.
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