Welcome to March. This is the time of year where dreams come true, hearts are broken, lives are changed, and legends are made. In the NCAA tournament, 68 teams make the playing field, with 4 of them playing in 2 “Play-in games” to create the full 1st round of 64. Among those 64 teams, some will be contenders, and make it to the Final Four; others will be a bust and take an early exit; and some teams will surprise a few people.
Contenders (Excluding Kentucky, because nobody likes hearing about them anymore):
1. Villanova: Villanova is one of the least talked about 31-2 teams in the history of college basketball. The Wildcats play basketball the way the game is supposed to be played. They’re a fantastic shooting team, who shares the rock more than anyone in the country. It will be very difficult to prep for a game versus ‘Nova in the tournament, because they have so many offensive weapons who can beat you. Darrun Hilliard, Dylan Ennis, and Josh Hart can beat you from deep or in the paint. Ryan Aricdiacano is a great shooter who runs the offense to perfection. Daniel Ochefu is coming into his zone down low, and Jayvaughn Pinkston is one of the most versatile players in the nation. This is one of Jay Wright’s best teams to date, and they won’t dissapoint come tourney time.
2. Wisconsin: Like Villanova, Wisconsin plays the game well. Watching this team is a privilage, because they work so effortlessly as a unit, and they have a next-man-up mentality. Frank “The Tank” Kaminsky is arguably the best player in the country, who’s dominated arguably the best conference in the country. Sam Dekker is a great scorer in his own right, and can hang with the best in the biz. This team has 3 losses, 2 of them were to Duke and Maryland. They had 1 bad loss all year, which was a 62-67 loss to Rutgers, when they were missing 4 starters. Bo Ryan runs his team like Greg Poppovich runs the San Antonio Spurs, and we all know how many rings Pop has.
3. Notre Dame: The Fighting Irish won the ACC tournament. They have a top player in the nation, in Jerian Grant. They have a load of role players who play their specific roles extremely well. Notre Dame scores the ball well (78.5 PPG), and score at an extremely efficient rate (.509), which is good for 2nd in the nation. Statistically, they shouldn’t make a run at the Final Four, but they’re hot, they can hang with the best offensively, and they have a man named Jerian Grant.
Pretenders:
1. Gonzaga: Honestly, I’m sick of hearing about Gonzaga. Every year I say they’re overrated, and every year they prove me right in the tourney. Yeah, I’m a fan of their best player, Kyle Wiltjer, but as a team, I don’t think they can hang with the best teams in the country. There’s a little thing called Strength of Schedule, which Gonzaga ranks 86th in the nation. Sorry Zaga believers, but when you’re filling out your bracket, don’t expect Gonzaga to make a deep run this year.
2. Northern Iowa: I was high on UNI until they played a good team. They lost to Wichita State (Who I also think is overrated) by 14, and looked smothered from start to finish. Not a single player on this team has been in a NCAA tournament game in a Northern Iowa uniform, and I think their lack of experience, and Strength of Schedule, will hold them back from making a deep run. Depending on the matchup, I wouldn’t be surprised if they exited in the Round of 64 or 32.
3. North Carolina: UNC is a good basketball team, but they’re highly overrated this year. They’re 7-5 in their last 12, and they just don’t look like a Final Four, or Elite 8 team this year. They have 1 real outside scoring threat, Marcus Paige, who declined from last season. Kennedy Meeks and Brice Johnson create a good post combination, but with the lack of scoring from deep, these guys won’t have much room to work against the countries best. This team has 10 losses for a reason. They’re simply living off the program’s history of excellence.
Sleepers:
1. SMU: Nobody seems to talk about or give credit to SMU this year. Maybe it’s because they play in the American Conference? Who knows. But in reality, this team is dangerously good. With a Freshman point guard like Nic Moore running the show, and a legendary coach like Larry Brown at the helm, this team is destined for success. They spread the ball around very well, and shoot at a very high efficient rate. They only allow 59 points per game, and have not lost to a team outside the RPI 150. They’re 24-6 with a coach who knows how to win. Larry is hungry for another ring, and I know his team is ready to quiet the haters.
2. Cincinnati: You must be thinking I’m in love with the American Conference, right? Well, Cincy deserves some respect. They’re 22-10, simply because they’ve had their ups and downs this year. They’re a great defensive team, as they takes pride in holding their opponent down. The Bearcats are only giving up 55 PPG, which is good for 6th in the country. You can’t penentrate the lane without fear against Cincinnati, as they average 5.5 BPG, good for 13th in the land. They’re not a very good offensive team, but hey, defense wins championships, right?
3. BYU: BYU is 25-9 with quality wins over Gonzaga, Stanford, UMASS, and Saint Mary’s. Their RPI is ranked 37th in the country, and for good reason. The Cougars are one of the best scoring teams in the nation. They average 83.6 PPG, which is 2nd in the country, 16.8 assists per game, which is good for 5th in the country, and 38.5 rebounds per game, which ranks 15th in the nation. They’re not a great defensive team, but they’re more than capable of pulling an upset or two. It also helps to have a kid named Kyle Collinsworth. He averaged 14 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 5.8 assists per contest. Outside of Kyle Wiltjer, he’d have my vote for WCC player of the year, without a doubt. Basketball is a game of putting the ball in the basket, and the BYU Cougars do that pretty freaking well.
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