2015 Player Projection: David Freese

David Freese got off to a rough start in his Angels career, but he came on strong late in his inaugural season. Can he carry that success over to 2015?

What happened in 2014?
A slow start caused by a bad case on Anaheimnesia put David Freese behind the eight-ball from the jump. Freese was just dreadful offensively the first six weeks of his Angels career. It wasn’t until he went on the disabled with a broken finger and came back that he finally found his stride. By then, Angels fans had pretty much written him off already though, so his resurgence went relatively unnoticed.

What they missed out on was Freese posting a 112 wRC+ in June, a 150 wRC+ in July, an 80 wRC+ in August and a 169 wRC+ in September. That’s a pretty strong offensive finish for a guy who seemed to be on the verge of losing his job early in the season.

It wasn’t all positive though for Freese once his offense picked up. Even with that strong second half, Freese still ended the season with a 24.3% strikeout rate, easily the highest rate of his career and he saw that coupled with a drop in walk rate down to 7.4%. Part of those numbers is just what happens when switching leagues, but it doesn’t explain all of it away.

The other hallmark of Freese’s season was that he was consistently removed for defense late in game. His defensive metrics weren’t all that bad last season, but he’s never had a good reputation. He also was battling minor back and shin injuries most of the year, so it made sense to use John McDonald in his stead whenever possible.

Overall, Freese proved to be a perfectly league average starter at third in 2014. That didn’t stop people from calling for him to be non-tendered and replaced by Gordon Beckham, but the Angels saw that what they had in Freese was good enough and help onto him for one more year.

[table id=82 /] *The MWAH projections are simply my best guess based off my own personal opinion and research (my wOBA calculation is approximate because my math skills are only “meh”)

What do the projections think he will do in 2015?
Honestly, they are pretty much all the same. Oh, sure, ZiPS has him posting a slightly lower batting average, but that is almost entirely based on ZiPS projecting a career-worst BABIP for Freese. Every other peripheral lines up with the other projection systems.

Does the Monkey agree or disagree?
No hot take here, my projection isn’t any different than the others. Freese was, is and will remain predictably boring and average.

THREE OPEN QUESTIONS FOR DAVID FREESE IN 2015
1) What caused Freese’s slow start and could it happen again?
Nobody really knows. The best two theories out there are that Freese was either still being troubled by the major back issues that derailed his 2013 season and it wasn’t until he got a few weeks off because of his finger injury that he finally got healthy or that Freese simply didn’t handle the pressure of moving to a new team well and tried to hard to impress his new club, taking him out of his game early in 2014. Or maybe it was a little bit of both.

Neither of those issues figure to pop up again this year, so there is no reason to expect a slow start from Freese. Of course, if there was some other mysterious root cause of his struggles, then maybe there is a threat of Freese randomly tanking for six weeks again.

2) Is David Freese a defensive liability or not?
Last season, Scioscia used a defensive substitution for Freese whenever possible. This year, however, he’s saying he won’t do that. Something magical must’ve happened for Freese to go from defensive liability to defensive stalwart over the offseason. Sure, he lost some weight so that he can have a bit more range and flexibility, but his entire defensive profile didn’t change because he ate a few less donuts over the offseason.

It is possible that Freese was just never that bad to begin with though. If you throw out the 2013 season where his back was so bad that he could barely move, Freese rates as an average defender according to UZR. DRS is a less forgiving as it had him as below average early in his career and not good at all last season. If Freese can be average, then the defensive sub isn’t necessary. But if he isn’t, then Scioscia might wish he had a quality glove on the bench to turn to.

3) Is there any possibility that Freese gets put into a platoon?
Realistically, no. Though it is something that should at least be looked at. Freese had an OPS .220 points lower against righties last season and struck out almost 10 percentage points more. His career splits aren’t quite as exaggerated, but they also aren’t that far off either. Given Freese’s defensive limitations, it would make sense to pair him with a lefty bat who either kills righties or is just solid offensively and a major upgrade defensively.

The problem is that the Angels don’t have either of those things. Kyle Kubitza is the third baseman of the future and left-handed, but it is premature to see him working into a timeshare now. Mid-season is somewhat more plausible, but not by all that much. For better or worse, the Halos are stuck with Freese as their full-time starter at third.

The Final Word (and GIF)
“Unimpressed”

I’m convinced there is nothing that David Freese can do to impress fans. He will always be the World Series hero for the Cardinals and anything less is a disappointment. He could put up a 5+ WAR during the regular season and then go 3-for-22 in the ALDS and folks would talk about what a chump he is. If it ain’t Game 7 heroics, it is just unimpressive.