2015 Player Projection: Drew Rucinski

Angels fans love themselves a pitcher who emerges from nowhere to become a real contributor. This year they want Drew Rucinski to be that guy so badly. Can he fulfill that wish?

[table id=93 /] *The MWAH projections are simply my best guess based off my own personal opinion and research (my wOBA calculation is approximate because my math skills are only “meh”)

What happened in 2014?
Drew Rucinski was out of organized baseball in 2012 before being pulled off the scrapheap by the Angels in 2013. He made five starts for the Inland Empire 66ers that season and was impressive enough to stick in the organization for another year. He got bumped up to Double-A in 2014 and just continued to find success. In fact, Rucinski was pretty excellent for the Travs, posting a 3.15 ERA and boasting a 140-t0-41 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

That impressive performance combined with sheer attrition of the big league pitching staff resulted in Rucinski getting added to the 40-man roster and then called up the big leagues. He would only make three mop-up appearances, but considering where he was two years ago, the fact that those mop-up appearances even happened is an amazing story.

What do the projections think he will do in 2015?
Surprisingly, the projections actually seem to think that Drew Rucinski more than belongs on a MLB roster. Steamer has a very rosy projection for him, but it needs to be taken with a grain of salt as it only has him pitching 15 innings. ZiPS isn’t nearly as optimistic, but it isn’t doom-and-gloom either. The real issue it sees with him is that he won’t miss a lot of bats. CAIRO also see that problem to a slightly lesser degree, but it also sees Rucinski succeeding in spite of it by doing a better job of keeping the ball in the park.

Does the Monkey agree or disagree?
I also think Rucinski can be useful, but I am very much on the fence as to how useful. He doesn’t really have a good third pitch to make him a highly effective starter and his slider and velocity don’t figure to play up enough to make him a bullpen weapon. He seems perfectly suited to be a inning-eating fifth starter or a long reliever who does an adequate job of soaking up innings and not letting things get out of hand. Admittedly, that is a pretty uninformed projection because we just haven’t seen enough of Rucinski in the majors or even the minors to truly understand what exactly the Angels have.

THREE OPEN QUESTIONS FOR DREW RUCINSKI IN 2015
1) Is Rucinski really going to make the Opening Day roster?
It looks like it thanks to the misadventures of Andrew Heaney and Nick Tropeano. The Halos won’t be starting the season with a fifth starter, so they are going to have an extra slot in the bullpen. They also lost Cory Rasmus to injury, so they have a major need for a reliever with length. They could go with Jose Alvarez, but they’d still have another roster spot open and no one else who has been good enough to earn that spot other than Rucinski. So, yeah, he’s going to make the roster.

None of that is to suggest he didn’t earn it though. Rucinski has pitched his butt off this spring and become the annual training camp darling of the fans. The roster attrition merely guaranteed him the roster spot, but he might’ve earned it anyway thanks to his performance.

2) Will he actually be able to stay on the roster?
Now that’s a horse of an entirely different color. Scioscia has a proven history of wanting a long reliever on the staff, so when Richards comes back, there will still be one long reliever in the bullpen. However, if it comes down to Rucinski and Alvarez, Alvarez has a major edge because he’s left-handed and the Angels might prefer having two lefties to use in relief. Then again, Scioscia has never been super into exploiting matchups, so one lefty reliever could be more than enough. Of course, it could just come down to which of the bottom two relievers just doesn’t pitch well, so Rucinski will have to impress in his audition. It could really pay off for him if he is the one picked to make the one spot start that will be required before Garrett Richards is able to make his return.

After that though, he doesn’t figure to survive beyond when Cory Rasmus gets healthy. It is entirely possible too that if Hector Santiago flames out in the rotation that the Halos will turn back to Heaney or Tropeano and give Rucinski’s long relief role to Santiago. I guess what I’m saying is that Rucinski is going to be fighting to stay on the active roster almost constantly.

3) Do you actually have a third question about Drew Rucinski?
No, not really. Like I said, he’s pretty much an unknown. He’s a great story and we all are pulling for him. He’s also a great story from the front office perspective in that Dipoto’s regime was able to identify a guy like him, bring him into the fold and actually get any utility out of him. Maybe they just got lucky, but if Rucinski provides even 0.1 WAR this year, it is a nice feather in the cap of the scouting department.

The Final Word (and GIF)
“Mystery”

It is fun to root for Rucinski and all, but unless you are a scout, a season ticket holder for the Arkansas Travelers or an avid MiLB.tv watcher, you really don’t know what Rucinski is. He had a lot of success in a super-pitcher-friendly environment in Double-A last year and has pitched well against scrubs in Spring Training.  Rucisnki is a man of mystery to the casual fan, so root for him to succeed, but let’s not go overboard campaigning for him to be slotted into the rotation over a Top 30 prospect like Heaney or even a lesser prospect like Tropeano.