2015 Player Projection: Josh Hamilton

I’ve put this one off as long as I can, but now it is finally time to engage in what might be the most futile act ever: projecting Josh Hamilton‘s 2015 season.

What happened in 2014?
It seems like eons ago now, but Josh Hamilton actually started the 2014 season well. He posted a 1.286 OPS in April and had people thinking he might actually be rebounding some. Then he went and ruined his thumb sliding into first base like an idiot.

Why? Because Josh Hamilton.

When Josh came back from that injury, he was still able to post a decent enough average and OBP but his power had all but disappeared and never really showed itself again but for a few weeks in August. Things didn’t really fall to pieces though until September when Hamilton was suddenly afflicted with a mysterious rib/oblique/shoulder injury. Nobody knows how the injury was suffered or even what the true extent of the injury was.

Hamilton missed most of the final month of the season but rushed himself back into the lineup for the ALDS all so he could go 0-for-the postseason and have some of the most inept at-bats we’ve ever seen from him, which is truly saying something. Even in a series where few Angels hit, Hamilton’s complete and utter failure was a major story not just locally but nationally, too.

Then the offseason happened and we really don’t need to get into all that.

[table id=89 /] *The MWAH projections are simply my best guess based off my own personal opinion and research (my wOBA calculation is approximate because my math skills are only “meh”)

What do the projections think he will do in 2015?
Ugh. This is a bad idea. There really is no point in reviewing this because nobody really knows what Hamilton’s fate will be this year. For what it is worth though, the projection systems at least all agree that he can still be useful. Not very useful, but useful enough to have in the lineup. In all three cases, Hamilton would still be a league average starter in left if he played a full season, which none of the systems expect him to do.

Does the Monkey agree or disagree?
Again, it doesn’t really matter because Josh could be suspended for 25 games or he could get banned for the whole season. That being said, I made my projection several weeks ago before we knew about the relapse and before we knew he’d be having shoulder surgery. Even with that lack of knowledge, I projected Hamilton to finally enter full-on Vernon Wells mode.

I know Josh was still dealing with injury issues in the ALDS, but I think what we saw then was his career dying. He has too much going on mentally at the plate to survive that kind of catastrophic failure. Physically, he also might be toast. Shoulder injuries and guys with high-maintenance swings are a terrible, terrible combination and Hamilton might have one of the most high-maintenance swings in the game.

Sure, when healthy he was still productive in 2014, but he was also buoyed by a .350 BABIP. His whiff rate is only getting worse. His power is only diminishing. His body is only proving to be more fragile.

Suspension or not, Hamilton is done. This will be his last season in Anaheim and I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t actually finish the season out with the Halos.

THREE OPEN QUESTIONS FOR JOSH HAMILTON IN 2015
1) When will we see him in the lineup again?
Some fans would like that answer to be “never.” That’s actually something I think is on the table. If Commissioner Manfred drops a full season ban on Hambone, then I think there is a very legitimate possibility that Josh just decides to call it a career or at least gets bought out by Moreno rather than returning in 2016 to be a huge distraction.

At best (or worst, depending on your point of view), Hamilton won’t be seen until May as that is how long his shoulder injury is expected to sideline him and a 25-game suspension seems to be the bare minimum ban for his relapse.

2) Should the Angels even want Josh Hamilton back in the lineup again?
While I think Hamilton is completely washed up at this point, the other projections systems don’t. If they are right, then, yes, Hamilton is still a player worth having in the lineup, regardless of what you think of him as a person.

Having Hamilton also gives the Angels more depth. As I wrote long before all the drama unfolded, the Halos can’t just lose Hamilton and not take a hit to their productivity. Acquiring Matt Joyce helped softened the blow quite a bit, but moving Joyce into the field puts a huge amount of pressure on C.J. Cron to be a major producer at DH. I don’t think Cron is capable of that, in which case the Angels would be better off with Hamilton being a below average starter in left and Joyce moving back to DH to platoon with Cron.

3) Should the Angels find a better replacement for Hamilton?
Yes, they should, but they shouldn’t make that decision until they know the length of Hamilton’s suspension. If Josh gets hit with the full season banhammer, the Halos need to pick up another outfielder, if only for depth purposes. Finding a more full-time left fielder, like Charlie Blackmon, and letting Joyce and Cron platoon at DH with Cowgill pushed back into the fourth outfielder role he is so well-suited for would be ideal. But if Hamilton only misses 50 or so games, then maybe just finding a more reliable fifth outfielder than Efren Navarro or Marc Krauss would be prudent.

The Final Word (and GIF)
“BOO!”

Oh my God, Josh Hamilton is going to be booed so loudly if/when he returns. Part of me thinks the Angels should just find a way to introduce him to the crowd on Opening Day just to get it out of the way. Even those of us who have sympathy for his addiction issues don’t really have any tolerance for the rest of the package that is Josh Hamilton.