2015 Player Projection: Matt Joyce

Matt Joyce was supposed to be the new DH in town, but with the Hamilton saga still ongoing, the Angels’ newest slugger is going to be counted on for a lot more in 2015. Is he up to the task?

What happened in 2014?
It is kind of hard to say because Matt Joyce was with the Tampa Bay Rays, so we don’t have the benefit of watching him closely all year to craft a narrative around his season. What I can see is that Joyce was in a very strict platoon and was mostly productive by way of drawing a ton walks.

The problem is that his walks weren’t paired with power production like it normally is. It just up and disappeared. Joyce still held his value, but he had to find a different way of doing it, which primarily took the form of him BABIPing his way to a more acceptable batting average than normal.

Because of their wretched start to the season, the Rays were believed to be shopping Joyce quite prominently. Nothing came to pass at the trade deadline, but in the offseason they consummated a deal with Angels to swap Matt Joyce for Kevin Jepsen, thus fulfilling the annual obligation for the Rays and Angels to trade with each other.

[table id=85 /] *The MWAH projections are simply my best guess based off my own personal opinion and research (my wOBA calculation is approximate because my math skills are only “meh”)

What do the projections think he will do in 2015?
Low average? Check! Lots of walks? Check! A small bounceback in his power? Check!

The projection systems are in general agreement. ZiPS is more optimistic about Joyce recovering most of his former power. Aside from that, he essentially projects to be a left-hand swinging outfielder version of Chris Iannetta.

Does the Monkey agree or disagree?
I do disagree, especially in the power department, which I will get into below. Suffice it to say that there is enough weirdness in his batted ball data last year that I believe him simply not having such a weird year will result in him putting up his normal numbers.

THREE OPEN QUESTIONS FOR MATT JOYCE IN 2015
1) Should Joyce be allowed to face left-handed pitching?
Let’s just get this out of the way. Joyce is bad against left-handed pitching. Like, comically bad. On his career, his slash line against southpaws is .189/.256/.316 and comes with a 31.8% strikeout rate. That is just miserable yet Scioscia has openly considered the option of using Joyce in the lineup full-time while Hamilton is out.

Please don’t do that.

Matt Joyce was only allowed 35 plate appearances against lefties in 2014. It is really hard to shelter a guy from a platoon disadvantage that much but the Rays found a way. The Rays are a pretty smart team, too, so perhaps the Halos should follow their lead.

As of right now, it looks like they will. The talk of not platooning Joyce has faded in the last week or two. It is possible it was never even a real thing. Scioscia might just have been trying to placate the new guy by acting as if he’d be given a shot to be a full-time player.

2) Should Joyce be allowed to play the outfield?
Joyce has been marketed as a DH, but it turns out that he might actually be competent in the field. Emphasis on “might.”

There is some variation in his defense metrics, but on a year-to-year basis Joyce rates between below average to slightly above average. Part of his issue appears to be that he has a bad arm. That’s been a problem since he spent a lot of time in right field while with Tampa. In Anaheim, most of his fielding work should be in left field where his arm deficiencies can be minimized.

But does that mean he should be allowed to play the field? I guess that depends on how frequently he’ll be out there. Cowgill and (if/when he comes back) Hamilton are both clearly superior fielders and the Halos have an opening at DH. For him to play the field with the DH slot open seems like a bad idea. They’d need Cron to hit well to justify the defensive downgrade they’d be taking by moving Joyce to left field on a regular basis. If Joyce is just going to moonlight in the outfield to help rest Calhoun and others, then Joyce getting to use his glove should be just fine.

3) Where’d Matt Joyce’s power go last season?
Before last season, Joyce had never had an ISO below .184, then the bottom fell out and posted a .129 figure in 2014. What gives?

This is where not having watched and followed Joyce everyday makes us a bit ignorant. I can see that he started hitting a lot more grounder last season, 43.0% which is up from his career norm of 37.4%. So that is certainly part of the problem as was his career-high 15.1% pop fly rate. But I also see that his HR/FB was 7.6%, a far cry from his previous career low of 12.5%. This makes me fearful that something dramatic changed with his swing or health because he apparently isn’t hitting the ball in the air as much and when he is, it isn’t going as far.

Maybe. It turns out that his average flyball distance last season was 280 feet. That is actually up from his 2013 number of 266 feet and right on par with his 2012 number. So I guess that means the hypothesis is only half true.

To muddy things further, Joyce also had a .316 BABIP, which is one point shy of being his best BABIP ever. This is yet another indicator that Joyce was still making quality contact.

None of this makes any sense, but I choose to put my faith in his flyball distance numbers as an indicator that the power is still there. However, I remain concerned about the shift in batted ball ratios because so much of it was concentrated in the second half.

The Final Word (and GIF)
“Shadow”

Through no fault of his own, Matt Joyce is going to be playing all season in the shadow of Josh Hamilton. Joyce was originally brought in to provide lineup depth, partially to replace the offense of Howie Kendrick but also partly for the Angels to hedge their bets on Hamilton either getting hurt or declining further or (probably) both.

Now with Hambone injured and facing suspension, Joyce is being framed as the full-on Hamilton replacement. Everything he does is going to be looked at through the lens of a guy who is going to make Hamilton obsolete. Every bit of Hamilton news is going to have an addendum on what it means to Matt Joyce.

I’m sure Joyce is just glad to be playing as a starter and likely hitting in the heart of the order, but I’m also sure he wished it didn’t come at the price of being indirectly associated with one of the most sordid and depressing stories of the season.

*EDITOR’S NOTE, I will give $100 MonkeyBucks to any reader under 25 that actually gets the reference in the GIF. I will also question your life choices.