2015 Player Projection: Mike Trout

Mike Trout got the first of what should have been his third MVP last season despite having his worst season as a pro. Cleary he’s the best player in the game right now, but was that step back he took actual cause for concern or will Trout make the adjustments he needs to bring his performance back into the realm of immortals?

What happened in 2014?
Trout won MVP, hit for more power than ever, which was good. He also saw his strikeouts go through the roof, stopped stealing bases, had his lowest batting average and on-base percentage and got dinged badly by the defensive rating systems again, which was bad. Trout certainly got a lot of accolades for the good part, but it seems that most people chose to focus on the bad. So much digital ink was spilled over his struggles with pitches up in the zone and his bizarre apathy towards attempting stolen bases.

I was certainly a contributor in that deluge of Trout critique, but I’m not so sure anyone intended to cut him down or diminish his accomplishments. Instead, I think it was more about people being fascinated at the idea that Mike Trout might have flaws and physical limitations. After his first two Trout was elevated to demigod status, so to see him have such clear and obvious struggles last year just broke everyone’s brains.

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*The MWAH projections are simply my best guess based off my own personal opinion and research (my wOBA calculation is approximate because my math skills are only “meh”)

What do the projections think he will do in 2015?
Across the board the projection systems expect Trout to perform better in 2015. The average and walks are expected to go up, the strikeouts will come down and the power will largely remain intact. That is really saying something because you’d think that after Trout’s two out of this world seasons, his more human third season would sort of calibrate the systems to stop expecting insane performance from him.

Does the Monkey agree or disagree?
The funny thing is that I thought I was being exceedingly optimistic about Trout in 2015 and yet I was pretty close to the other systems. Heck, ZiPS was even more optimistic than I was. My justification was mainly that I think Trout is too good to let this “high fastball” problem continue to plague him, especially after it was so blatantly exploited by teams down the stretch in 2014. One of the legendary characteristics that Trout appeared to have when he first broke into the league was an uncanny ability to make adjustments at the plate. He didn’t figure out the high fastball issue last year, but I think after an entire offseason of him working on it and Don Baylor coaching him up, he’ll be able to crack the case and then the league is going to be screwed.

THREE OPEN QUESTIONS FOR MIKE TROUT IN 2015
1) What happened to the steals?
Someone call Robert Stack because this remains an unsolved mystery. Trout made some comments about how he is preserving his body, but Scioscia made some comments about how teams are trying harder to keep Trout from stealing and other theories abound that reduced stolen base attempts was a strategic decision from the front office or a bizarre Scioscia decision because he didn’t want Trout running while Pujols was at the plate. NOBODY KNOWS WHAT’S GOING ON.

2) Will the potential strike zone changes affect Trout?
MLB might shrink the strike zone in 2015 and the popular theory is that they will take a few inches off the bottom of the zone. That could be an issue for Trout because he murders pitches low in the zone. He also struggles with balls up in the zone. Not to keep beating that dead horse, but if there is less incentive for pitchers to throw the ball down in the zone, they will thus throw more balls up. Pitchers should be doing this to Trout anyway, but this potential change could force their hands. Of course, it is possible MLB could take away the high strike, in which case the league is once again screwed.

3) Are we going to have to talk about Trout’s defensive problems?
This is awkward, but Trout has now rated poorly on defense two years in a row with two consecutive -9 DRS seasons. Trout was supposed to be an elite defender and he certainly makes elite plays, but is it possible that he actually isn’t all that good, but just has a knack for the highlight reel play? I have a hard time believing that, but we are getting dangerously close to the point where we can’t just wave off the poor defensive metrics as sample size noise that those stats are prone to. The good news it that with Statcast coming this year, we might finally get a conclusive answer to this question. We just have to be prepared for the possibility that we may not like the answer.

The Final Word (and GIF)
“Troutstanding”

Worry all you want about the holes in Trout’s swing, but it was exposed pretty heavily last season and he was still the best player in the world. Much like in the GIF above, Trout can do something like take a horrible route but end up making it look amazing because he is just so physically gifted. So, teams can pump him up in the zone all they want, they just need to know that when they miss down just a little bit, Trout will make them pay.