The AL East isn’t the powerhouse it once was. It seems like just yesterday the division with two of the three biggest spenders in the sport and the savviest small market team was putting the top heavy AL Central to shame, but no longer. Instead, we’re looking at five deeply flawed teams. The Orioles ran away with things last year on the strength of good pitching, a pretty deep lineup, and the weakness of every other team. The Red Sox were a catastrophe, the Rays got hurt and then traded away their talent, the Blue Jays didn’t meet expectations, and the Yankees limped through whole season.
It seems unlikely that Baltimore will win by 12 games again–or that they will win 96 again–but the O’s are still the team to beat in the East despite the Red Sox’ spending spree. Moreover, the retooled Jays are a popular pick this spring, though some devastating injuries may have made a big dent in their chances, and the Rays are always a tough team though there are concerns that the magic might be gone now that Joe Maddon and Andrew Freidman are elsewhere. The Yankees are the real wild card here. New York could put it all together and make a run at 90 games, or, equally as likely, they could completely fall apart a la the 2014 Red Sox.
No matter who comes out of the AL East, it’s unlikely they’ll be as good as the Tigers, Mariners or Angels, or even the Indians or Royals. Of course, just about all of these teams have the resources to make a big move if the opportunity presents itself. The Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles, and Blue Jays will all be mentioned alongside any and every available starter this summer. The AL East in October may look very different from the AL East in March, but let’s take a look at it as of now.
Projected Standings:
- Baltimore Orioles
- Boston Red Sox
- New York Yankees
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Tampa Bay Rays
There is, I think, nothing too revolutionary about this prediction. The Yankees won’t be bad, but they won’t be good either. The Blue Jays won’t be good but they won’t be bad either. The Red Sox and Orioles are the best in the division but the Red Sox risk getting off to a slow start with a lot of new faces and a really questionable starting rotation. Tampa has just lost too much talent, on the field and in the front office, to keep up.
Baltimore Orioles: 1st place, 93-69
Chris Tillman is really good. Kevin Gausman is good. The rest of the starting staff is good enough. The bullpen is solid too and extremely well managed by Buck Showalter. The offense is deep though not as sure a bet as some others in the division. Manny Machado is a budding star but knee surgery in August means he didn’t have a full spring training this year. Matt Weiters is recovering from Tommy John Surgery and likely can’t start catching full time for a while (and, while he’s taking game at bats, you can hardly say he’s hitting as he’s started spring 0 for his first 23). Chris Davis will serve the final game of his 25 game drug suspension on Opening Day but he hit under .200 last year so it’s hard to say what Baltimore will get out of him.
On the other side of the spectrum, JJ Hardy might not be ready for Opening Day but is a stellar hitter at short and provides some pop towards the end of the lineup; Adam Jones is a star in center; and Steve Pearce, whom I recently mocked on Twitter, was a revelation last year hitting 21 bombs. The Orioles aren’t particularly flashy but they win ballgames with the help of a lot of good role players like Jonathan Schoop and Corbin Joseph.
Boston Red Sox: 2nd place, 89-73
Boston went dead last, to world champs, to dead last over the last three seasons and they’ve brought on a bunch of new players to help continue the cycle. Hanley Ramirez is shifting to left field and Pablo Sandoval is the new third basemen in what is perhaps the deepest lineup in the AL. Though Boston took a big blow with Christian Vazquez going down with an arm injury, they still have a healthy Dustin Pedroia back at second, David Ortiz at DH, a surgically enhanced Mike Napoli at first, Shane Victorino in right, the uber talented Mookie Betts in center and Rusney Castillo and former all-star Allen Craig just hanging around for good measure, not to mention Daniel Nava and Brock Holt too. The Sox have 9 regulars who would start on just about every other team. So why won’t they win the division in a runaway?
Pitching! Boston is bad at it, both in the rotation and the bullpen. As for the starters, the Sox are going with a lineup of number 2’s. Clay Buchholz will get the Opening Day start despite a disastrous 2014, and he’ll be followed up by Joe Kelly, who’s hurt, Rick Porcello, who’s pretty good but a mid-rotation guy, Wade Miley, who was good as mid-rotation guy in the NL West, and Justin Masterson, who used to be good but isn’t any more. Together, they make up perhaps the worst rotation in the league. And, while it’s a safe bet that the Red Sox will find somebody to lead the staff at some point this summer, it’s just as safe a wager to assume that at least one of the current proposed starters will flame out disastrously. Add to that that Boston’s bullpen is some combination of very hurt, old, and generally not good, and Red Sox games will certainly be high scoring affairs.
New York Yankees: 3rd place, 84-78
As I said, the Yankees could be really good, really really bad, or anything in between. Their starting pitching fortunes rest on Masahiro Tankaka’s partially torn UCL, Michael Pineda, who missed 2 years with injuries and made 13 starts last year, and CC Sabathia who might be best suited as a bad lefty specialist at this point. When they’re good, all three can be really really good, but there’s a good chance none of the three makes more than 15 starts.
On offense, it’s all about health. The Yankees are, again, old as all hell but talented. If Brian McCann plays up to expectations (read: doesn’t have another completely crappy year), Carlos Beltran stays healthy, and Mark Texeira is just decent, the Yankees could be in ok shape. Second base will be an adventure with Stephen Drew who can’t hit, Brendan Ryan who isn’t a second basemen and can’t hit, Rob Refsnyder who’s never played a game, and Jose Pirela, who can’t field. When push comes to shove, I think Refsnyder and Pirela will separate themselves and the position will actually be passable going forward.
Moving on, the Yankees have Chase Headley at third and that’s a good thing. Headley is reliably above average at the plate and stellar in the field. If he can be a fixture in the 6 or 7 spot in the lineup, the Yankees are in good shape; if he hits any higher than that on a regular basis, not so much.
Passing over Didi Gregorious, who will be a really good defender and the 8 hitter, we get to Alex Rodriguez and Garrett Jones. Right now, Jones is penciled in as the backup first basemen and DH but I’m thinking we’re headed for a .210 with 17 homers, Raul Ibanez type season. That’ll make A-Rod all the more important. Rodriguez has had an excellent spring and I’m feeling good about my .250-.260 with 15-20 homers prediction from a month ago. If Rodriguez is surprisingly good, he could cover for another of the veterans when they inevitably get hurt.
Overall, and I’m getting a little long winded here, the Yankees are in for another mediocre season. The pitching depth just isn’t there to support an unreliable offense. However, with Gregorious, Pirela, Headley, and Jacoby Ellsbury in the majors and Aaron Judge and Greg Bird tearing it up in the minors, there are signs of hope in the Bronx for the first time in a while.
Toronto Blue Jays, 4th place, 81-81
The Blue Jays are always good on paper, they just rarely translate it to real success. Their trades for Michael Saunders and Josh Donaldson were both really strong moves but the Jays once again are heavy on stars and light on depth. It’s a good basketball strategy, but it doesn’t work in baseball.
In addition to the two mentioned before, Toronto has Jose Bautista in right and Edwin Encarnacion at DH. While Bautista is by far the better of the two, both are good for close to 30 homers. They also have Jose Reyes and newly signed Russell Martin, who are both not quite as good as their name recognition suggests. Past that though the Jays are counting on Justin Smoak at first and that’s never ever been a good idea, and risk having to suffer though some serious lumps in center and at second.
Like their projected record, the Jays pitching is very average. OTBB is projecting big things from Drew Hutchison but he’s not an Ace and, at this point, neither are Mark Buehrle or RA Dickey. The loss of Marcus Stroman was huge as Toronto was counting on him to be a frontline young starter and without him they’ll have to really stretch their bullpen depth by moving Aaron Sanchez into the rotation. On balance, I don’t think the Blue Jays have the depth or the pitching to compete in the Al East but they will be one of the best bad teams in the game.
Tampa Bay Rays: 5th place, 75-87
David Price is gone. Joe Maddon is gone. Ben Zobrist is gone. Andrew Friedman is gone. The players, coaches, and executives that made Tampa a powerhouse despite a tiny payroll are all now with other teams and I don’t think the new regime can seamlessly pick up where the old one left off. Tampa’s pitching is still really good. Alex Cobb, Chris Archer, and Drew Smyly are all among the top pitchers in the division, though that says as much about the AL East as it does those three guys. Plus, when Matt Moore comes back from Tommy John surgery in a couple months, he has a chance to be incredible. It’s the starting staff that will buoy this team. It’s the rest of it that will drag them down.
Evan Longoria needs to bounce back a little this year but he’s the anchor in the lineup no matter what. Desmond Jennings has finally become a solid piece as well, but had yet to live up to expectations. Beyond them though, there are concerns. James Loney is among the worst starting firstbasemen in baseball and Rene Rivera is best suited as a backup catcher. Keven Kiermaier is an ok center fielder and Steven Souza has potential but no experience. Really, the Rays moved a lot of their good guys–Matt Joyce, Wil Meyers, Ben Zobrist–for some not as good guys, in an effort to shave salary. Under Friedman, you might give them the benefit of the doubt, but not now.
Tampa needs a second basemen, a first basemen, a DH, another starter and a bullpen arm. Beyond that, they’re ok.
Bold Predictions:
- Alex Rodriguez hits 25 homers
- Alex Rodriguez hits 2 homers
- Brock Holt plays more games at second base than Dustin Pedroia
- Rusney Castillo makes the All Star team
- The Red Sox trade for Cole Hamels by July
- Ubaldo Jimenez has more wins than losses
- Stephen Drew is not a Yankee by August
- Matt Moore throws a no hitter
- Justin Masterson has an ERA above 5 for the season
- Drew Hutchison will be bad
- Steven Sousa hits .256
- Jose Pirela is really good
- Manny Machado will break out
-Max Frankel
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