Image courtesy of Jim Wyatt, of course.
As we normally do, we begin our trip around the Tennessee Titans position by position as we head into the offseason with a look at the quarterback position.
The question in the preseason, as it was for the previous preseason, was whether Jake Locker would (a) stay on the field long enough and (b) play well enough for the Titans to commit to him as their starting quarterback in 2015 and beyond. Both questions were answered strongly in the negative. As a result, for the first time in a few years, the story of the Titans quarterback situation is not all about Jake Locker.
Since Locker’s contract is up in March, I do not believe it is worth evaluating his play in particular detail. He played acceptably in the season-opening win against Kansas City, then had abysmal stretches of play the next two games against Dallas and Cincinnati before getting hurt. He returned to the lineup against Cleveland and got hurt again. He started again in Week 15 against the Jets and got hurt again, finishing the season on injured reserve. He threw entirely too many interceptions and again took too many sacks. In a limited sample of snaps as a backup, he did even worse than he did as a starter. His only consistent positive trait again was his ability as a runner, something he did rarely because that’s what Ken Whisenhunt wants. Hopefully his next team can find a way to use him in that way.
The big question facing the Titans is, if the story of the Titans quarterback situation does not include Jake Locker, who is it all about? Holding the second overall pick in this year’s draft, the Titans will have the opportunity to select from at least one of the two consensus potential franchise-type quarterbacks in this year’s class. For purposes of this analysis, though, I am concentrating on players who took snaps for the Titans in 2014 and those currently on the roster, not those who could be Titans in the future. Whether the Titans are interested enough to pass on a player at another position and select one of those quarterbacks will depend in part on their evaluation of the quarterbacks who are currently on their roster.
If the story of the Titans quarterback situation is about a player currently on the roster, Zach Mettenberger is that player. I wrote in the preseason positional analysis that should he play in 2014, you should expect him to struggle like virtually every rookie quarterback selected outside the top 40 picks does. He did play, and he did struggle greatly. By Football Outsiders numbers (I write for FO perma-disclaimer), he finished as the fifth-worst quarterback in the league on both a per-play (DVOA) and total value (DYAR) basis, ranking just behind Locker in both categories. ESPN’s Total QBR metric, which also takes into account rushing value and includes more weight on game situations, had him as the fourth-worst. If you believe wins are a quarterback stat (which they are not), Mettenberger went 0-6 as a starter, and the Titans lost five of those games by at least 14 points.
Relative to the average quarterback, the advanced passing stats at Pro-Football-Reference highlight that Mettenberger posted a below-average completion percentage and interception and sack rates well worse than average. If you want to argue his completion percentage was partially offset by a higher-than-average yards per completion number in Ken Whisenhunt’s more vertically-oriented attack, I’ll note that Mettenberger’s passing profile doesn’t quite match that of the other Titans quarterbacks. Mettenberger’s average pass did go slightly farther than average, but indistinguishably so, only 8.61 yards downfield relative to a league average of 8.51. Locker’s average throw came 9.75 yards downfield, more than a full yard further downfield, while Charlie Whitehurst’s was 9.61, almost precisely a full yard further. I may explore those numbers in further details in a future post on Mettenberger. Mettenberger’s poor completion percentage, plus all those sacks and interceptions, meant the Titans had incredible struggles moving the ball with him in the lineup; looking only at possessions in those six games he started, the Titans had at least one first down on just over half of their offensive possessions. That rate was worse than some historically inept offenses, including the 2002 Houston Texans, and significantly worse than the rate posted by the other two Titans quarterbacks in their starts.
Any Mettenberger-related optimism must come from a scouting perspective. I’ve already mentioned there’s a divide there. Coming out of LSU, some people really liked Mettenberger, while others (me included) were more skeptical of his NFL future. Mettenberger as a Titan in 2014 resembled in many ways Mettenberger as a Bayou Bengal in 2013, so the people who liked Mettenberger coming out still like him, while those who were skeptical are still skeptical. (If you can point to anybody who changed their mind on Mettenberger based on his 2014 play, in either direction, please let me know. I’m serious.) At his best, Mettenberger is a perfect fit for Ken Whisenhunt, a tall strong-armed pocket passer who will throw the ball vertically and showed some surprising nimbleness in the pocket. At his worst, he’s an inaccurate passer who stands in the pocket trying to decipher the defensive look until he either throws the ball up for grabs or takes a sack. Getting beyond the basic Greg Cosell-Trent Dilfer split is an exercise for future posts and I’m not going to change anybody’s mind here, nor am I really trying to. But the Titans will have to come down one way or the other. Which side of the split they come on will control how they attack the quarterback position this offseason, and whether the Titans quarterback situation in 2015 is all, mostly, or hardly at all about Zach Mettenberger.
I wrote of Charlie Whitehurst in the preseason positional analysis that I wondered when the Titans signed him if they did so in part because they wanted to lose all their games if Locker got hurt. Lo and behold, he ended up being by any statistical measure the best Titans quarterback in 2014. Given what I just wrote about Locker and Mettenberger, you could accurately point out it’s saying hardly anything at all. Still, it was actually more than I expected from Whitehurst. By FO numbers, he posted a DVOA of -7.1%, fairly close to Ryan Fitzpatrick’s -3.6% last year. Instead of one of the worst backup quarterbacks in the league, he was more like an average one. Statistically speaking, he has the completion percentage-yards per completion split Mettenberger had by reputation, coming out right at league-average thanks to the combination. What he did particularly well (for some definition of well) was avoid throwing interceptions, only two in 185 attempts. He also showed many times why he’s a career backup, missing open receivers and taking too many sacks because of apparent difficulty processing the ball quickly.
Even though Whitehurst was the best Titans quarterback in 2014, I haven’t seen anybody suggest he should be the starter in 2015, nor should there be anybody suggesting that. The bigger question is, what will his role be? He’s a backup, due a backup-like sum of money in the second and final year of the deal he signed last offseason. With Mettenberger returning and other players back too, his role of fount of wisdom concerning the Ken Whisenhunt offense will not have nearly the same value it did last April. If the Titans acquire an established veteran quarterback, at whatever level, then Whitehurst’s presence on the team probably becomes short-lived. Without a veteran acquisition, though, I expect to be writing about him in August for the offseason positional analysis and probably again next February in the next preseason positional analysis.
Also on the roster are Jordan Palmer and Alex Tanney. Palmer was a “we need a quarterback NOW” addition after Locker’s late-season injury. He threw three passes in the season finale against the Colts, and I’d be shocked to see him re-signed after his contract expires. Tanney was signed to the practice squad in that same short week after Week 15 and before the Thursday night game in Week 16, and the Titans signed him to a futures contract in the offseason. At 6’4″, he has the necessary size to play for Ken Whisenhunt. If you haven’t watched the trick shot video he made coming out of Monmouth, it’s not bad. I’m not really sure I see a path for him to be on the roster in 2015, though, barring something major happening off-the-field with Mettenberger.
Conclusion-Type Things
Goodbye, Jake Locker. The new question that consumes the Titans quarterback situation is how much of an answer Zach Mettenberger is. The Titans have the draft picks and cap room to potentially make a serious investment at the position, or enough needs elsewhere and enough potential positives from a scouting report to potentially go elsewhere with those dollars and picks and let Mettenberger sink or swim as their starter in 2015 with Charlie Whitehurst the backup. I certainly have an idea which way I’d go. You probably know which way you might go, too. For now, we’re still waiting to get any clarity on which way the Titans will go.
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