After quarterback, running back, and fullback, our next stop around the Tennessee Titans position by position heading into the 2015 offseason is a look at the wide receivers.
In the preseason, there were two major questions surrounding the wide receivers. First, would the clear top three be good enough? Second, would the depth beyond the top three be good enough if the top three didn’t meet or exceed reasonable expectations for their continued development or suffered any injury issues? At the end of the 2014 season, the answer to both of those questions was negative. With one of that top three heading to free agency, that means 2015 will be a year of uncertainty and, it seems likely, significant change for the Tennessee Titans wide receivers.
Kendall Wright was again the Titans’ best wideout. It seems fair to say, though, his first year under Ken Whisenhunt was a relative disappointment. He was a key contributor all season when healthy (he missed two games), playing 662 snaps (68.5% of total, 78.8% when active), led the team with six touchdown receptions, and led the position group with 93 targets, 57 receptions, and 715 receiving yards (plus four carries for 54 yards). Useful as those numbers were, it was a far cry from his 94-catch sophomore campaign in 2013.
The main issue with Wright arising from the coaching staff seemed to be the lack of precision with which he operated; Whisenhunt’s plays are designed to stress the defense in particular ways, and a receiver who runs his route a yard too shallow or a yard too deep could force a defender to not have to make a decision as to which player to cover. Apparently 2013’s offense, and Ryan Fitizpatrick’s ability to be flexible made it more important that Wright just get open and be a productive chain-mover instead of operating with that same kind of precision. (I’m trying very hard to contain myself here, and part of the reason for my blogging hiatus was it’s hard to just crank out posts in a limited time frame without containing yourself when dealing with a team as frustration-inducing and faith-destroying as the 2014 Titans.) In light of the issues he had in 2014, that could make the Titans’ upcoming decision on Wright and his fifth-year option (for 2016) somewhat interesting. For 2015, though, he’ll be around, he’ll play a lot, and if healthy will probably catch somewhere between the 60-odd catches he would have had if healthy in 2014 and the 94 he had in 2013.
Thus endeth the semi-reliable part of the Titans wide receiver group. We now enter the murky depths of the position group, where dwell those likely to be playing elsewhere in 2015, the unreliable, and the unreliables likely to be playing elsewhere in 2015. Since you may recall the Titans frequently playing three wide receivers, that the semi-reliable part of the position group has one name in it and the other names fall into the murky depths is a significant issue.
Nate Washington had another very Nate Washington-type season, catching 40 passes on 72 targets for 647 yards. For the fourth straight year, he led all Titans receivers in DYAR, Football Outsiders’ measure of cumulative value (I write for FO perma-disclaimer). Yes, he ranked ahead of Wright even in 2013 due to greater efficiency on a per-play basis (DVOA, in FO-speak). By now the book on Nate is so well-established I don’t have anything interesting, even to me, to say about him other than that he was a valuable receiver to the team for all six seasons of the six-year deal he signed as a free agent back in 2009. Now, that deal is up, and Washington turns 32 shortly before the start of next season. He should be a useful third or fourth receiver elsewhere, probably on a team even closer to winning a Super Bowl than Tommy Smith thinks/wants the Titans to be.
I admit it: cutting Justin Hunter would have been my favorite “we are not !#%!@#%! around” move of questionable intelligence, if the Titans were into that sort of thing (the ‘we are not !#%!@#%!’ around part, not the moves of questionable intelligence bit, they’ve made plenty of those). Once again, I’m having to try very hard to contain myself, because Hunter is precisely the sort of receiver who hits my hot buttons, and the Titans valuing him is precisely the sort of thing that makes me angry and Mr. Bigglesworth upset, a physically impressive player who happens to struggle with catching the football. If you’re like me, you think that sort of thing is of near-apocalyptic importance for wide receivers. If you’re like the Titans, you can treat it with a sort of casual insouciance.
Hunter posted the league’s worst catch rate among receivers with at least 50 targets in 2014, at 42%. In second place was Arizona’s John Brown, at 47%. That catch rate was slightly down from the 43% he posted last year. In hard numbers, that was 28 catches on 67 targets, 498 receiving yards, and three touchdowns before his season-ending spleen injury in Week 13 on a hospital ball from Zach Mettenberger. What they do at receiver this offseason will tell us a lot about what the Titans think about Hunter; his style fits Whisenhunt’s offense well, so if they make only one high-profile addition it seems likely they’re counting on him to play a prominent role again. With two or more, he could play something more like the limited deep threat-specialist fourth receiver role he would be in if I ran the NFL, or at least the team that employed him.
If the Titans had to line up and play tomorrow, Kris Durham would seemingly be the third receiver. He played 108 snaps in 2014, catching six passes on 11 targets for 54 yards. The longer-lasting of the two waiver wire acquisitions from cutdown date last year, he was last seen in significant action posting a 45% catch rate opposite Calvin Johnson in 2013. (Fellow waiver wire acquisition T.J. Graham, not discussed here since he was cut after three weeks, also posted a miserable 2013 catch rate.)
In the preseason positional analysis, I compared Derek Hagan‘s presence on the team to the reserve price in an auction, a floor which you must exceed to make the team. Nobody did, so Hagan made the team and played 311 snaps, mostly at the end of the season after Hunter went down. 34 targets, 19 receptions, 254 yards, one touchdown. Fittingly, FO metrics ranked him right at replacement level. Not under contract for 2015 and turning 31 in September, my guess is his NFL career is over. Then again, I thought that even before he spent the entire 2013 season out of the NFL and yet there he was back playing in 2014.
Rico Richardson got to play 2 snaps in Week 16, then was inactive in Week 17 after his elevation off the practice squad. I have no particular expectations for him. The Titans signed a pair of experienced receivers to futures contracts, Jacoby Ford and Clyde Gates. Ford was once a promising explosive kick returner; their continuing interest in players of that type, like Jacoby Jones, suggests they may not be overvaluing Ford. I never saw anything in Gates, though of course with the Jets who knows. Both posted a catch rate of 46% in their most prolific season; see above if you need a reminder. Josh Stewart is also on the roster after spending his rookie season on injured reserve; he remains in the “flotsam and jetsam” category until proven otherwise.
Conclusion-Type Things
The Titans need at least one wide receiver. I believe they need at least two. Given the inexperience of the two returning contributors, I believe they should add at least one veteran wide receiver. A deep wide receiver crop in the draft makes an addition there attractive to me as well; I wouldn’t do it with the #2 pick, but the Titans have made it very clear they are not on the same page I am when it comes to wide receivers. Still, given the depth chart and degree of need, adding at least one player who will be a significant contributor in top three is basically a requirement.
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