SELF-PUBLICITY NOTE: Football Outsiders Almanac 2015, the annual tome previewing all 32 NFL teams, plus the college football season put out by Football Outsiders, is now available. I was a contributor for the sixth consecutive season, writing the Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, and, yes, once again, Tennessee Titans chapters. The PDF is currently available from the Football Outsiders website, while the dead tree version is now on Amazon. Buy it, buy it, buy it! /end plug
After quarterback, running back, fullback, wide receiver, tight end, and offensive tackle, the next stop on our trip around the Tennessee Titans position by position as we approach the start of the 2015 regular season is a look at the offensive guards.
I mentioned yesterday that for years tackle was the easiest, least interesting positional analysis to write because for years you could go into a season assuming last year’s starters would be this year’s starters and would play well again. As I covered in the offseason positional analysis, the Titans were hoping they’d found that same sort of tackle stability they found in 2005 with their two guard moves in the 2013 offseason. At least through two seasons, that hasn’t happened, with either player. Both have been out there pretty much every snap, but that quality of play has been uneven. The arrow appeared to be trending up late in 2014 for one of the duo, while it might be for the other one as well.
My general rules of thumb for which player to discuss when indicate I should discuss left guard Andy Levitre second, but I’ll start with him anyway. Repeating what I said in the offseason analysis, your view of Levitre’s performance depends in part on your philosophy of offensive line grading. On a play-to-play basis, I thought he performed pretty well over the course of the season. His bad plays, however, tended to be very, very bad. I tend to prefer the former approach, so I thought Levitre was a quality starter and the Titans’ most consistently good offensive lineman in 2014 (given three starters ended up on IR, this is not nearly as impressive as it might sound). This may have been my most contrarian take on the 2014 Titans.
The key to Levitre going forward, though, is those very, very bad plays. There’s an easy story to tell about how Levitre’s problems appeared to come primarily from strength issues, and hip and knee injuries that took away his 2013 and 2014 offseasons were the primary culprits for his very bad plays those two seasons. Even a fully healthy Levitre is never going to be the most powerful player in the league, something I noted even before the Titans signed him. That makes him a bit out of step with where the Titans are going with their offensive line philosophically, though he’s a quality puller if you think they’re going to run Power (hint: they are). My take is that unless the lower body injuries have had a long-term effect on his playing ability, his spot shouldn’t be in jeopardy. After two disappointing seasons following a massive free agent contract, it doesn’t surprise me to see the Titans at least hint at the possibility of him losing his starting job. My filter isn’t very good at telling me if they’re actually seriously considering replacing Levitre, as some people seem to want, or if they just him to finally be the player they thought they signed.
Chance Warmack has no such even potential guards about his status as the first-string right guard after ending his second season playing his best stretch of football in the NFL. The question is whether he can sustain and even improve on that quality play, or if it was just a normal variation in the play of an average starter. Even if his six pack isn’t quite real, the offseason signs have been suitably encouraging. Like Taylor Lewan yesterday, the key is not the details of last year’s play but the details of how he will play this year. I’m looking forward to seeing how it pans out.
If Levitre is not the starting left guard, then Jamon Meredith will be the guy there. Though he played tackle for the Titans last year, he played left guard for the Buccaneers in 2013 (and right guard for TB in 2012). That he was on the street when the Titans signed him last December told me everything I needed to know about how the NFL valued him, given the parlous state of offensive line play around the league right now. My take is that if he ends up the starting left guard, then (a) Levitre’s injury issues have had a long-term effect on his play, (b) the Titans are insanely committed to particular attributes of offensive linemen, probably to the detriment, or (c) both. His experience playing both guard and tackle (not just last year, but in the past as well) could give him the edge as a reserve if the Titans choose to keep only eight offensive linemen (Poutasi, Gallik/Velasco).
2014 undrafted free agent Justin McCray spent last year on the practice squad. 2015 undrafted free agents Josue Matias and Quinton Spain were both covered in the undrafted free agents post. Both had draftable grades from some non-NFL scouts, though Matias was probably a medical flunk. A path to the active roster for any of the three probably includes Gallik getting cutting unless the Titans are comfortable with very young and inexperienced offensive line reserves behind some fairly young offensive line starters.
Since Fernando Velasco is listed as a center on the unofficial depth chart, I will discuss him with the centers.
Conclusion-Type Things
Chance Warmack will start at right guard. I’d put Andy Levitre almost at the same level at left guard, though it’s possible the Titans really are doubting him that much. The potential level of play you could get from either or both of them ranges from excellent, one of the best in the league to an average to below-average starter. Like last preseason, there’s a reasonable case for optimism and improvement over last year. As with the tackles, I’ll need to see it on the field to believe it.
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