We begin our trip around the Tennessee Titans position by position as we approach the start of the 2015 regular season with a look at the quarterback position.
When I addressed the quarterbacks in the preseason analysis back in February, I noted that for the first time in a few years, the story of the Titans quarterback position was no longer all about Jake Locker. The open question then was, who would the story of the Titans quarterback position be about? That question was decisively answered in April when the Titans took Marcus Mariota with the second overall pick. For those of you who had any lingering questions, Ken Whisenhunt dispelled them at his press conference to open training camp, responding to a question about the QB pecking order with “You mean after Marcus?”
Fine, so Mariota will be the Titans’ starting quarterback in 2015, barring injury or a sudden, inexplicable, massive faceplant along the lines of developing Steve Blass Disease in extremis. Just how good can we expect Mariota to be? I recently broke down Mariota in some detail, and won’t re-hash that entire analysis here. My deeply unsatisfying conclusion is that we do not know, and we will not know for sure until after it happens. Too many of the questions I have cannot be answered with any certainty until we get much better data. Further, there are various points at which we might expect Mariota’s effectiveness to change. I’m more optimistic about Week 1 of the regular season, less so around Week 5, and around Week 9 we should have more of an idea of what Mariota might be like the rest of the season.
Given that deep uncertainty, what might I be keeping my eye on?
1. Being on the field. Jake Locker failed in part because he could not stay healthy. Only once in the past dozen seasons, Matt Hasselbeck in 2011, has a Titans quarterback managed to start all 16 games. Every other season, for injury, ineffectiveness, or both, the Titans Week 1 starter has spent time not starting. To use the cliche, the most important ability is availability. Mariota was a durable player in college. The Titans need him to be one in the NFL.
2. Not many designed runs. Oregon’s spread attack featured plenty of zone read and designed abilities for Mariota to take off. The Titans could bust out the zone read here and there (if the Bengals can do it with Andy Dalton…), but I strongly doubt it’s a staple of their offense.
3. Movement on pass plays, within and outside the pocket. One of the concerns about Mariota’s game is how well he manages a pocket, especially a muddied one. He showed some potential vulnerability to this in college (see the Arizona loss last year, for one example). Can he reset, find good spots, and throw accurately, or will he struggle like all three Titans quarterbacks did in 2014? When he does escape the pocket, does he extend the play by taking off or buy buying time to find receivers downfield? When he does take off, does he protect his body?
4. Arm strength. Andrew (Strickert) attended practice today and was kind enough to send me a few notes. One of them was that Mariota did not impress him with his arm strength. Does Mariota have the distance and velocity to make the throws Ken Whisenhunt wants him to make? How will the offense be adapted to fit what he can do in this area?
5. Ball security: interceptions. Mariota took excellent care when he threw the ball at Oregon, and when he didn’t he used his mind powers to defenders to drop the ball. He reportedly hasn’t thrown any interceptions the first three days of training camp. Charlie Whitehurst was the best Titans quarterback last year largely because he did not throw interceptions (and the other guys were pretty lousy). Can Mariota carry that over to the NFL?
6. Ball security: fumbles. Mariota showed some vulnerability in this area in college. I didn’t look at these plays specifically to say how many of them were, say, read plays versus casual treatment as a passer or potential passer, but these are turnovers too and if he’s coughing the ball over here too much, it’s an issue.
There’s more than that to pay attention to, but I’ll dive into those in due course as circumstances warrant and my time permits.
It sounds like Zach Mettenberger will be Mariota’s backup. It seems kind of weird to me that you would have a backup with so different a skill set as the starter, especially when the backup is another young player who needs reps to improve. The selection of Mariota meant I did not break down Mettenberger’s 2014 performance in great detail; I intentionally waited to see if the Titans made any major quarterback additions because, frankly, I don’t think anybody’s opinion on Mettenberger has changed significantly since, oh, around October 2013. I’ll link again to the Greg Cosell-Trent Dilfer post, which I thought encapsulated the two basic perspectives nicely and refer again to my point #1 in the list above, hopefully Mariota is out there for every game and we don’t see Mettenberger take a snap in the regular season.
If Mettenberger is the #2, that makes Charlie Whitehurst the #3. As I indicated in the offseason analysis, I was more favorably impressed by Whitehurst’s 2014 play than I expected to be, though my expectations were also incredibly low. Favorably impressed just meant that he looked like an average-ish backup, maybe about the 50th-best quarterback in the NFL instead of maybe the 75th-best like I feared he might be. He had plenty of what I thought of as “backup processing speed moments” that resulted in him missing open receivers and taking sacks, but outside of the season finale he was not dreadful. Whitehurst turns 33 in a few days (8/6) and given he’s behind Mariota and Mettenberger when it comes to the priority for getting reps, it’s exceedingly unlikely he becomes a much better player than he showed in 2014. In the modern NFL, though, the question a third quarterback always faces is whether there is room for him on the roster. Mariota and Mettenberger’s youth, plus Mettenberger’s injury history, tell me the answer for the 2015 Titans will be an unqualified yes, there will be a roster spot for Charlie Whitehurst.
Calling Alex Tanney just a camp arm may seem a bit cruel, but I don’t know how else to phrase it. Barring a King Ralph-style accident taking out the other three quarterbacks, I don’t see how he makes the team. Even in that bizarre and unlikely case, I wouldn’t call him an absolute lock. But, hey, trick shot video!
Conclusion-Type Things
It’s all about Marcus Mariota. Everybody except opposing teams hopes he’s good, but we won’t know until he actually plays. Also, STAY HEALTHY!1!1!!!!!!1!111!!!
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