After quarterback, running back, fullback, wide receiver, tight end, offensive tackle, guard, and center on offense, plus defensive line, outside linebacker, inside linebacker, cornerback, and safety on defense, the final stop on our position by position trip around the Tennessee Titans as we approach the 2015 regular season is a look at a position that’s not really a position at all, special teams.
First, the standard introductory “what is special teams” note: special teams consists of five separate and distinct elements, albeit with overlapping skills. These are: (1) place kicking on field goals and extra points; (2) kickoffs, including kickoff coverage; (3) punts, including punt coverage; (4) kickoff returns; and (5) punt returns. The kicker or punter is normally the kickoff guy, the same players tend to play on multiple units, the kick returner and the punt returner are sometimes but not always the same guy, and a single guy (special teams coach Nate Kaczor) is in charge of the whole mess. That does not make it not a mess, though, just a lumping of “not offense or defense.”
As I covered in the offseason positional analysis, “special teams” was not a major area of weakness for the 2014 Titans. By and large, they were around league average in most areas, with only kick coverage standing out as a particular weakness. The three special teams-only players each saw their contract expire after last season, and the Titans re-signed each to a multi-year extension this offseason. If the rest of the roster cooperates, the Titans will probably be at least as good as they were last year, and maybe even improve some.
After last training camp’s competition, Ryan Succop becoming available was a gift for the 2014 Titans. He’s not as good as an in-his-prime Rob Bironas (R.I.P.) once was, but a performance around league average on both field goals and kickoffs was an upgrade over what Bironas did his final two seasons. I’m not expecting much more than average, but (1) by historical standards, just an average NFL kicker is pretty darn good these days, and (2) we got a glimpse last preseason of what life below the kicking Mendoza line is like, and it’s not good, so average is nothing to scoff at. I am not at all worried about him, which is exactly where I want to be with my kicker.
I am also not worried about punter Brett Kern. I started referring to him as Directional Punter Brett Kern last year, since he tended to have shorter than average kicks with much shorter than average returns, then he went ahead and had better than average kicks with longer than average returns. Despite the change in the characterization of the inputs, the net of the two was still similarly and somewhat, but not significantly, positive. I’ll be interested to see how the inputs go for next offseason’s analysis. Yes, an offense that does not go three-and-out as often might have some effect on this, even through Football Outsiders’ (I write for FO-perma-disclaimer) attempts to control for that sort of thing.
I am also not worried about long snapper Beau Brinkley, the third of the three players whose roster spot depends solely and absolutely on their special teams performance.
Now the interesting part. Some people keep trying to cut Dexter McCluster, last year’s punt returner. I’ve consistently had him on the team, partly because of his punt returning but mostly because Ken Whisenhunt seems to having gadget backs around. McCluster was blah last year, seemingly spending too much time dancing around for 15 yards to only gain 4 yards. He was the league’s most valuable punt returner (by FO numbers) in 2013 in Kansas City, which is evidence (a) Dave Toub is a witch (wizard, warlock, what have you), and (b) he is capable of being an outstanding punt returner. My default assumption is that with better blocking (see above re Toub/magic) he’ll return to being a very good punt returner.
The kick return job is open and has been subject to competition this year. Let’s take a look at the options and what they’ve done in the NFL:
(a) McCluster returned kicks for the Chiefs in 2010 (the last year returning kicks was a valuable and meaningful skill) and 2011. He was firmly below average both seasons.
(b) Jacoby Ford was good in 2010, above average in 2011, and below average (on a terrible Raiders team, granted) in 2013.
(c) Antonio Andrews had a couple returns late last year and was pretty blah.
(d) Like Andrews, Bishop Sankey had a couple returns late last year. One of them was good, so he came out a bit above average by FO numbers. Using a running back I expect to play as significant a role as Sankey on kickoff returns seems pretty nuts to me, but we have seen him there this preseason.
(e) Tre McBride returned kicks in college and has gotten some looks this preseason.
(f) Somehow, Jeremiah Poutasi has not gotten any chance to return kicks, at least that I’ve seen reported, even though this would probably be a lot of fun to watch. Credit to Aaron Schatz for raising this idea during the editing process of Football Outsiders Almanac 2015, still available in PDF and dead tree formats!
Poutasi joke aside, if you can find much enthusiasm for any of (a)-(e), well, good for you. I’ve thought there could be a committee/revolving door like the Titans had in 2009, when five different players had at least six returns. The good news is, as I indicate in the McCluster comment, kick returner quality doesn’t mean as much as it used to. The move of the kickoff spot from the 30 to the 35, plus the increasing quality of NFL kickers means that actually or practically unreturnable kicks and therefore touchbacks are far more common than they used to be. The returnable kicks we do see tend to occur more frequently in adverse kicking environments, which the Titans will likely encounter only rarely this season playing the AFC South, plus the NFC South in interconference play. The most likely result, regardless of who wins the job, is average to below, but unless the returner starts coughing up the ball, it should not have a significant effect on the 2015 Titans.
If I had to guess at this point, I’d say Ford and McBride get cut, and Andrews is the most likely kickoff returner Week 1 against Tampa Bay. But he could easily be the upback in front of Sankey or somebody else (even though he did it in 2009, I can’t see Michael Griffin getting another chance at this job). The cut to 53 will give us more clarity on who the kickoff returner is likely to be, so I will have a note on that in my post cut-down roster analysis.
The other question and potential issue is the core special teams player. Linebackers are often key special teamers, especially in a 3-4 scheme. The Titans have critical depth questions at both inside linebacker and outside linebacker, and the answers we think we’ve seen there have not been standout special teamers in past years (I like Wesley Woodyard as depth, but special teams ace he’s not). That could lead to more playing time for the starters, something I would generally prefer not to see unless it really is unavoidable. Ideally, the Titans will do the same thing they did once before and find the new Patrick Bailey and Tim Shaw, players who may not have a role on defense but who are very important members of the active roster anyway.
Conclusion-Type Things
Average in most areas is a reasonable expectation. Average in most areas would be good, or at least good enough. Kick returner is still murky, and will be until we find out who actually does end up on the roster. A standout core special teams player emerging, whether from the marginal roster players or arriving from elsewhere in the league, would be neat. But you can win with around average if you’re good in other areas.
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