Last week the ZiPS projections for the 2015 Indians were released on Fangraphs.com. Overall, these projections do not vary much from the Steamer or Bill James projections we featured over the course of the last few weeks. Here’s what ZiPS has predicted for the Tribe’s hitters.
| Player | PA | R | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS+ | zWAR |
| Yan Gomes | 470 | 58 | 24 | 3 | 17 | 64 | 1 | .269 | .313 | .455 | 117 | 3.8 |
| Michael Brantley | 651 | 83 | 37 | 3 | 13 | 84 | 18 | .297 | .352 | .436 | 124 | 3.4 |
| Carlos Santana | 619 | 73 | 29 | 1 | 23 | 84 | 4 | .249 | .367 | .443 | 131 | 2.7 |
| Jason Kipnis | 625 | 80 | 28 | 3 | 13 | 68 | 25 | .256 | .330 | .388 | 105 | 2.6 |
| Jose Ramirez | 584 | 67 | 23 | 4 | 7 | 47 | 27 | .263 | .304 | .360 | 90 | 2.2 |
| Lonnie Chisenhall | 485 | 59 | 26 | 1 | 14 | 59 | 3 | .271 | .325 | .429 | 114 | 2.2 |
| Michael Bourn | 591 | 73 | 22 | 9 | 5 | 43 | 22 | .257 | .313 | .359 | 92 | 1.9 |
| Francisco Lindor | 552 | 61 | 17 | 4 | 11 | 49 | 19 | .244 | .294 | .358 | 86 | 1.9 |
| Zach Walters | 492 | 57 | 24 | 5 | 24 | 64 | 2 | .233 | .267 | .461 | 104 | 1.9 |
| Brandon Moss | 523 | 66 | 22 | 2 | 28 | 77 | 3 | .236 | .321 | .475 | 124 | 1.7 |
| Giovanny Urshela | 542 | 61 | 28 | 4 | 9 | 62 | 1 | .257 | .289 | .379 | 90 | 1.3 |
| Roberto Perez | 333 | 32 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 1 | .194 | .281 | .301 | 67 | 0.9 |
| Mike Aviles | 414 | 46 | 18 | 1 | 8 | 48 | 11 | .250 | .278 | .365 | 82 | 0.6 |
| David Murphy | 453 | 43 | 23 | 2 | 9 | 49 | 4 | .256 | .316 | .388 | 61 | 0.6 |
| Nick Swisher | 489 | 50 | 23 | 1 | 14 | 58 | 1 | .229 | .316 | .386 | 100 | 0.6 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 555 | 61 | 24 | 0 | 15 | 64 | 0 | .233 | .295 | .370 | 100 | 0.6 |
| Ryan Raburn | 268 | 28 | 13 | 0 | 8 | 33 | 0 | .216 | .273 | .367 | 89 | -0.2 |
| Tyler Holt | 560 | 56 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 29 | 21 | .223 | .291 | .272 | 82 | -0.4 |
One of the constants in these projections has been Lonnie Chisenhall. After Lonnie got off to a hot start in the first half of last season, he regressed to his 2013 form in the second half. This caused many to believe he is not the long term answer to the Tribe’s third base needs, and gave rise to a host of fans who believe Giovanny Urshela should be the Opening Day starter. ZiPS, like Steamer and Bill James, has a high view of Lonnie and believe his performance in 2015 will be much more akin to the first half of 2014 than the second half. Whether Lonnie can perform to these projected levels will be something to watch closely, especially if Urshela continues to show such great improvements as a hitter.
The ZiPS projections are similar to Steamer and Bill James when it comes to Michael Brantley as well. The consensus seems to be that Brantley will regress from his MVP-caliber 2014 season. This is a pretty reasonable prediction given the fact that before 2014 Brantley was just an above average player who hit in the .280’s with low double-digit home runs. However, I personally believe these projections are low and Brantley will out perform them to be about a 5-WAR player in 2015.
Sometimes things just click for a player and they finally start to put it all together, much like newly acquired Indian Brandon Moss did in 2012 with the Athletics. Before going to Oakland, Moss was a negative WAR player struggling to find his way in the MLB. Since that point, Moss has been one of the best power hitters in the American League. I believe Moss’ situation is analogous to Brantley, and 2014 was just the start of a dominant run for Dr. Smooth.
The ZiPS projections may be the worst of all of the three when it comes to the Indians’ pitching staff. Aside from Corey Kluber, ZiPS doesn’t think too keenly of any of the Indians’ potential starters.
| Player | G | GS | IP | K | ERA | FIP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA+ | zWAR |
| Corey Kluber | 31 | 31 | 206.3 | 226 | 2.97 | 3.03 | 9.86 | 1.92 | 0.70 | 126 | 4.8 |
| Danny Salazar | 28 | 28 | 156 | 177 | 3.81 | 3.80 | 10.21 | 3.00 | 1.04 | 98 | 1.9 |
| Carlos Carrasco | 35 | 16 | 119 | 111 | 3.71 | 3.67 | 8.39 | 2.57 | 0.76 | 101 | 1.4 |
| Trevor Bauer | 29 | 29 | 167.7 | 163 | 4.29 | 4.41 | 8.75 | 3.86 | 0.97 | 87 | 1 |
| Zach McAllister | 29 | 26 | 149 | 114 | 4.23 | 4.06 | 6.89 | 2.60 | 0.79 | 88 | 1 |
| Cody Allen | 75 | 0 | 68.7 | 85 | 3.15 | 3.45 | 11.14 | 3.54 | 0.92 | 118 | 0.7 |
| Bryan Shaw | 75 | 0 | 74.7 | 70 | 3.5 | 3.68 | 8.43 | 3.01 | 0.72 | 107 | 0.4 |
| Gavin Floyd | 15 | 15 | 84.7 | 70 | 4.46 | 4.68 | 7.44 | 2.98 | 1.17 | 83 | 0.3 |
| Shaun Marcum | 13 | 10 | 59 | 47 | 4.42 | 4.31 | 7.17 | 2.90 | 0.92 | 84 | 0.2 |
| Kyle Crockett | 50 | 0 | 42.7 | 40 | 3.59 | 3.77 | 8.43 | 2.32 | 0.84 | 104 | 0.2 |
| Scott Atchison | 55 | 0 | 52 | 38 | 3.81 | 3.88 | 6.58 | 2.08 | 0.87 | 98 | 0.1 |
| C.C. Lee | 54 | 0 | 49.7 | 48 | 3.99 | 4.09 | 8.69 | 3.26 | 0.91 | 94 | 0 |
| T.J. House | 23 | 22 | 123.7 | 85 | 4.80 | 4.84 | 6.18 | 3.13 | 1.02 | 78 | -0.1 |
| Marc Rzepczynski | 70 | 0 | 53 | 45 | 4.08 | 4.23 | 7.64 | 3.57 | 0.85 | 91 | -0.1 |
| Josh Tomlin | 22 | 16 | 93.7 | 73 | 4.80 | 4.44 | 7.01 | 1.63 | 1.34 | 78 | -0.1 |
| Scott Downs | 50 | 0 | 33 | 25 | 4.36 | 4.36 | 6.82 | 3.82 | 0.82 | 85 | -0.2 |
| Austin Adams | 48 | 0 | 56.7 | 52 | 4.29 | 4.27 | 8.25 | 3.33 | 0.95 | 87 | -0.2 |
| Shawn Armstrong | 45 | 0 | 49.7 | 54 | 4.35 | 4.42 | 9.78 | 4.16 | 1.09 | 86 | -0.3 |
| Nick Hagadone | 54 | 0 | 49.3 | 53 | 4.38 | 4.34 | 9.68 | 4.38 | 1.10 | 85 | -0.3 |
ZiPS seems particularly pessimistic on Carlos Carrasco, more so than the other two. Part of this is because Carrasco has not been a full-time starter since 2011 when all 21 of his appearances were starts. ZiPS is also very pessimistic about Gavin Floyd, predicting he will be a 0 WAR player. In fact it thinks Zach McAllister will be more productive as a starter, but still only a 1 WAR player.
ZiPS also has the lowest view of the Indians’ bullpen, unlike the other two projections we have looked at. Last year the Indians’ bullpen ERA was 3.12, good for 7th in the MLB. This year ZiPS projects a 3.86 combined ERA from the Tribe bullpen, which would likely put them in the lower third of baseball.
To see the complete projections, as well as some commentary on what goes into creating the projections, visit Fangraphs.com.
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