2016 AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAMEDAY: Steelers-Patriots

6:40pm
The Death Star
TV: CBS
Radio: WDVE and other affiliates

The 2016 season has been a humbling one for Steelers fans. The team started hot at 3-1 but then skidded to a 4-5 record at midseason. Some fans and media types were ready to proclaim the season over and articles popped up on the paid access sports internet citing Mike Tomlin’s bad record against teams that had losing records at the time of the game. Of course, that stat included losses to the Chiefs last year and Dolphins this year, both of whom turned their seasons around and made the playoffs. Then, the Steelers turned things around with an 8-sack performance in Cleveland and rattled off 6 more victories to close out the regular season. Some had declared the Steelers dead in the water. Some had declared that any number of Mike Tomlin, Todd Haley, Keith Butler, and/or Danny Smith were failures.

Even in the playoffs, this held true. Against the Chiefs the Steelers defied their trend of games outside the Eastern Time Zone and did it without scoring a touchdown. Chris Boswell booted 6 field goals and the defense held the Chiefs to just 16 points to bring the Steelers to their first AFC Championship Game since 2010. Even though many Steelers fans see this as a “revenge game” and have visceral memories of the 2001 and 2004 AFC title games, only two players from the current team were on that 2004 team – Ben Roethlisberger and James Harrison. Incredibly, Heath Miller played an entire 11-year NFL career between Steelers-Patriots meetings in the playoffs.

Nine wins in a row. Nine. No one could have predicted that when this team sat 4-5. Yet here we are. In Foxboro. In the AFC Championship. One win away from a trip to Houston for Super Bowl LI. As we’ve seen this season, all that matters is scoring more points and winning the game. That can happen any number of ways. We have done it with 6 field goals (twice!). We have done it with Ben and AB stealing the show. We have done it with Le’Veon Bell dominating the game. We have done it with defense. However it happens, all that matters at the end of the day is scoring more points than New England.

What To Watch For

1. Which Ben?

The biggest factor in this game is which version of Ben Roethlisberger will show up? At home this season, Ben was one of the best quarterbacks in the league. He completed 70.8% of his passes, had 20 TDs and 5 INTs, averaged 8.47 yards per attempt and 319 yards per game with a passer rating of 116.7. On the road he was nearly the polar opposite. He completed just 59.4% of his passes, had 9 TDs and 8 INTs, averaged 6.73 yards per attempt and only 238 yards per game with a passer rating of 78.4. Put on a comparative scale, at home this year Ben Roethlisberger was basically as good as Matt Ryan (who led the league with a 117.1 passer rating) and on the road he was basically Blake Bortles (26th in the league with a 78.8 passer rating). In the playoffs, Ben has tended towards the “road Ben” stats, completing 67.4% of his passes with 2 TDs and 3 INTs, averaging 8.59 yards per attempt and 211 yards per game with a passer rating of 82.1. So the big question is – which Ben Roethlisberger shows up on Sunday? If it is “Home Ben,” the Steelers will be in great shape. If it is “Road Ben,” they will need a big performance out of Le’Veon Bell (like they got in Kansas City) if they are going to have a chance to win.

2. The Middle of the Field

The Steelers have only defeated the Tom Brady Patriots twice. Once in 2004 in the “21 and Done” game on Halloween night. The second was in 2011 when the Steelers held the Patriots to just 17 points in a 25-17 victory. The biggest loss in this game is Rob Gronkowski’s injury for New England. In 5 games against the Steelers, Gronk has gone for 30 catches, 496 yards, and 8 TDs. His split stats paint an even bleaker picture. He has gone for 5/72/3, 7/94/0, 9/143/1, 5/94/3, and 4/93/1 against the Steelers. Without Gronkowski’s production, the Patriots will have to find another way to attack the Steelers down the middle of the field. In the first matchup, Julian Edelman had a big day by running shallow crossing routes and getting matched up with Lawrence Timmons in coverage. The Texans had success last week against Brady by taking away the short passing game, but the Steelers have never been a team to play press coverage. On the other side, the Steelers were able to move the ball down the middle of the field against the Chiefs through Le’Veon Bell running the ball and Ben finding Jesse James. The Steelers can get mis-matches both in the slot and in the middle of the field against the Patriots linebackers. The Chiefs neutralized Bell in the passing game last week but Bell had 10 receptions for 68 yards the first time these teams met and the Patriots no longer have Jamie Collins roaming the middle. For the Steelers, Ryan Shazier has an interception in both playoff games and in four straight games dating back to Christmas Day against  Baltimore.

3. Third and Long

Both offenses are capable of putting together long drives that bleed the clock. However, the method of success has been different. The Steelers have been able to control the clock via the running game with Le’Veon Bell. The Patriots are able to control the clock both with LeGarrette Blount running and Brady working the short passing game. The key for both defenses is being able to win on early downs and get off the field on third and long situations. If the Steelers sieve third and long conversions, Brady will be able to move the ball down the field at will and keep Ben, Bell and Brown off the field. Conversely, when the Steelers are in third down situations they need to play smart football and work for first downs rather than taking deep shots on third and short situations.

4. Adaptation

Bill Belichick is one of the best coaches in the league at putting together an adaptive gameplan. The struggle with preparing for the Patriots is twofold. First, they never come out with the same gameplan twice. Secondly, they have the personnel to be adaptable in various situations. They have both power backs and scat backs like Dion Lewis and James White. They will spread the field and run power. They will bring in 3 tight ends and throw. On defense, they will mix between a 3-4 front, a 4-3 over look, and a 4-6 bear. The Steelers will need to be able to make in-game adjustments to counter what the Patriots are throwing at them both on offense and defense. On the other hand, if something is working for the Steelers early in the game you can expect New England to make changes to take that away later in the game.

5. Whatever it takes

At this point, there is nothing to lose. The Steelers are 6-point underdogs and according to reports a vast majority of the money bet on this game is still on New England. No one is expecting the Steelers to win. This is the 9th time in the Mike Tomlin era that the Steelers are at least 6-point underdogs. They have won two of those games and took a third to overtime. In the AFC Championship, the “how” they do it is less important than the “what” – scoring points. Play fast. Play loose. Don’t look back. Do whatever it takes to beat this damn team. The players may not well remember the 2001 and 2004 AFC Championships. But the fans do. Enjoy the moment. It’s been 6 years since we have been to the precipice of the Super Bowl. Reaching this point is not easy. Enjoy it, and let’s get the job done.

HERE. WE. GO.