2016 ALDS Game 2 Preview: Worth The “Price” Of Admission

Game 2 of the Kenny Lofton defined playoffs resume today and it promises to be a great one. Two of the best pitchers in the American League square off as David Price will face Corey Kluber in a pitcher’s duel that only October ticket price(s) can deliver.

David Ortiz, The Red Sox Ironman

David Ortiz has played in all 74 of Boston’s postseason games since 2003, most in team history. He is also the Red Sox’ all-time postseason leader in HR (17), doubles (18), XBH (37), hits (79), runs (51), RBI (56), and BB (57).

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Other Red Sox Veterans

Aside from Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia (45 G), Hanley Ramirez (14 G), and Chris Young (14 G) have the most postseason experience among Red Sox position players.

David Price

The talk surrounding David Price’s career and recent large contract extension has been his struggles in the playoffs, but it’s a major storyline heading into his first postseason with the Red Sox. Price is 2-7 with a 5.12 ERA in 14 postseason games (eight of which were starts), allowing 77 base runners (62 hits, 12 walks and three HBPs) in 63.1 innings of work.

The long ball has really come back to hurt him in the last couple of postseasons, with Price allowing seven homers in his last six playoff appearances. The Kansas City Royals really roughed him up in his two outings with the Blue Jays in the 2015 ALCS, hitting a pair of homers and scoring eight runs in 13.1 innings over his two starts. He finished the 2015 postseason with a 2-1 record (he earned a W out of the bullpen), allowing 16 runs over 23.1 innings pitched.

Price has had one bad luck start in his playoff career, a 2-1 loss to the Baltimore Orioles in the 2014 ALDS when he gave up just five hits and struck out six over eight innings. But other than that, the outings have not been impressive. He’s allowed five or more runs in three of his last five playoff starts, which includes a 7-4 loss to the Red Sox in the 2013 ALDS where he allowed a pair of towering home runs to David Ortiz (and then complained about Papi’s home run trot after the game).

When it comes down to it, Boston doesn’t  know what they’re going to get out of Price when he toes the rubber tonight, but pitching well when it matters most is what Red Sox GM Dave Dombrowski paid him $217 million for last winter.

For all the talk of his struggles (and he’s had some for sure), he’s still been a very good, top of the rotation starter this season thanks to a strong WHIP (1.18), great strikeout rate (25%), AL-high in innings (211.7), and a bucket full of wins (16).

Price made his first start of the 2016 campaign in Cleveland on April 5th. He was dominate; going six innings, facing 25 batters while striking out 10 and walking only two. The bright spots were two hits recorded by Fransisco Lindor and an RBI from Yan Gomes. Here is video of Price from that game:

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As you can see, Price uses his cutter to get hitters to chase on balls outside the strikezone. He is especially tough on righties, as Raji Davis was caught looking on a ball that clearly fooled him.

With a sharper cutter he’s throwing more often, Price continues to dominate righties, and he’s never had trouble with lefties. Since getting dealt to Toronto from Detroit last season, Price is among the league leaders in limiting quality contact, possibly because hitters are having to guess between his three fastball varieties and his changeup, to say nothing of the occasional curve. Few pitchers in baseball are better equipped to mix things up, and to make matters more frustrating, few pitchers in baseball possess superior command. So Price can blend this all with throwing more than two-thirds of his pitches for strikes, which puts the batter almost permanently on the defensive.

His performance in Game 2 will go a long way in answering the question: Was the price right for David Price?

Carlos Santana has had the most success against Price, going 10-for-31 (.323) with four doubles while drawing six walks in his career.

Corey Kluber

Corey Kluber is dealing with a strained right quad that he suffered in his last start back on September 26, which is the reason he’s not getting the ball in Game 1, but it doesn’t look to be anything serious as the righty tossed a successful bullpen session on Monday. The weather will be warm for the 4:38pm (and no earlier) start time and this bodes well for Kluber’s quad muscle. If there is any lingering tightness, the mild temperatures will offset and delay it allowing Kluber to go deeper into the ballgame is necessary.

The ace has had mixed results in his two starts against Boston early in the regular season, allowing four earned runs over 5.1 innings in their opening day loss (also against Price) before tossing seven innings of two-run ball in a 4-2 Indians win at Fenway Park on May 20.

Kluber reacts to that cold, April start:

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He’s made eight career starts against Boston (and nine total appearances), going 2-3 with a 4.78 ERA — his second-highest career ERA against an AL opponent (Kluber has a 5.34 ERA in five starts against Toronto).

Mookie Betts has hit .400 (4-for-10) with a homer and a double in his career against Kluber.

-Infielder Travis Shaw has four strikeouts in 11 career at-bats against Kluber, but one of his four hits against the righty left the yard.

-Dustin Pedroia and Ortiz are a combined 6-for-32 (.188) against Kluber.

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