8:20pm
Arrowhead Stadium
TV: NBC
Radio: WDVE and other affiliates
The Steelers and Chiefs are both back in the Divisional Round for the second straight season. The Steelers are seeking their first trip to the AFC Championship since 2010 while the Chiefs are looking for their first Divisional Round victory since 1993. The New England Patriots await the winner next weekend in Foxboro. This is the Steelers first trip outside of Eastern Standard Time this year, where they are just 1-6 in the postseason since 1992. Interestingly, the Chiefs are just 1-4 in home playoff games over that same span with their only victory coming against the Steelers in 1993 when Joe Montana led the Chiefs to an overtime victory. While the Steelers have not been good outside of Eastern Time, the move to primetime should help them as they traditionally play better in night games on the road than in day games.
What To Watch For
1. Which Ben?
The biggest factor in this game is which version of Ben Roethlisberger will show up? At home this season, Ben was one of the best quarterbacks in the league. He completed 70.8% of his passes, had 20 TDs and 5 INTs, averaged 8.47 yards per attempt and 319 yards per game with a passer rating of 116.7. On the road he was nearly the polar opposite. He completed just 59.4% of his passes, had 9 TDs and 8 INTs, averaged 6.73 yards per attempt and only 238 yards per game with a passer rating of 78.4. Put on a comparative scale, at home this year Ben Roethlisberger was basically as good as Matt Ryan (who led the league with a 117.1 passer rating) and on the road he was basically Blake Bortles (26th in the league with a 78.8 passer rating). The interesting caveat to that is Ben’s numbers in primetime. The Steelers have played 3 primetime games this year, two of them on the road (in Washington and Indianapolis). In those games, Ben has a 75% completion percentage with 11 TDs and 1 INT and a passer rating of 139.9. He is averaging 9.77 yards per attempt and 273 yards per game in night games this season. So the big question is – which Ben Roethlisberger shows up on Sunday> If it is “Home Ben” or “Primetime Ben” the Steelers will be in great shape. If it is “Road Ben,” they will need a big performance out of Le’Veon Bell (like they got in Buffalo) if they are going to have a chance to win.
2. Special Teams
The area where the Chiefs likely have the biggest advantage in this game is Special Teams. Tyreek Hill has been an absolute beast this season at returning kicks and turning short plays on offense into big gains. Hill’s speed is unrivaled and you can’t help bit think that he is what the Steelers hoped Dri Archer would be. Hill is a threat to score any time he touches the ball – including on punt and kickoff returns. The Steelers have not allowed a kick or punt return touchdown yet this season but their kickoff coverage has been a bit leaky and they have allowed big returns. A kick return can change the momentum of a game and could be devastating in the deafening noise of Arrowhead. Hill did return a punt for a touchdown against the Steelers earlier this year but it was called back on a penalty. The Chiefs will also manufacture ways to get the ball into Hill’s hands on jet sweeps and end-arounds and quick screens on offense.
3. Start Fast
Like last week, the Chiefs are not a team that is built to play from behind. The Steelers can make things hard for the Kansas City offense by jumping out to an early lead like they did against Miami and like they did against the Chiefs earlier this season. Alex Smith is not going to push the ball down the field and the Chiefs rely heavily on the run and short passes to move the ball. Smith is notorious for throwing third down passes short of the sticks so the Steelers will need to be disciplined in their tackling. Both Tyreek Hill and Jeremy Maclin can be elusive while TE Travis Kelce is an absolute load to bring down. Since the Chiefs rely more on their skill players making plays with the ball in their hands than on their quarterback to make throws downfield, the Steelers can give their defense a huge boost by playing with the lead. James Harrison has eaten former #1 overall pick Eric Fisher’s lunch the last two times they faced off. By jumping out to a quick lead, the Steelers can take the Chiefs running game out of play and force Alex Smith to beat them with his arm.
4. 20 Points
As I mentioned in my statistical breakdown post, the 20-point barrier has been the magic number for both teams. The Steelers are 12-1 in games where they score at least 20 points with their lone loss coming to the Dallas Cowboys. The Steelers have held 10 teams under 20 points this season and have not lost any of those games. Similarly, the Chiefs are 11-0 in games where they scored at least 20 points. The Steelers were 0-4 when their offense failed to put 20 on the board while the Chiefs were 1-4 with their lone win coming in a 19-14 victory over the Jaguars. On defense the trend has been similar as Kansas City has held 10 of their opponents under 20 points this season and the Steelers were the only team to score more than 28 against them.
5. The Running Backs
For as good as Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown are, Le’Veon Bell has been the best player on the Steelers team over the last half of the season. Bell’s emergence has enabled the Steelers to be balanced on offense and to run the ball effectively. Bell has averaged over 150 yards from scrimmage per game and is an absolute matchup nightmare for linebackers. The Steelers should be able to attack the middle of the Chiefs defense as Kansas City will be without Pro Bowl inside linebacker Derrick Johnson. The Chiefs rank 26th in the league in run defense so Bell should be able to find holes to exploit. On the other side, Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West have filled in for the injured Jamaal Charles who missed nearly the entire season. Both Ware and West are capable backs in the running game and are functional receivers out of the backfield. The Chiefs are a good screening team and will work the screen game to any back (or Tyreek Hill). The team that is able to control the clock and dominate the trenches will have a distinct advantage in the questionable weather conditions. Playoff football is simple. Run the ball and stop the run and don’t turn the ball over and the rest will take care of itself.
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