2016 Fantasy Football: Top-50 Rookie Rankings, Projections and Sleepers

We’re still a ways away from solving training camp battles, understanding rookies’ roles and plans from coaching staffs and navigating through the remainder of free agent signings and training camp cuts. But with rookie drafts already starting up and to provide a starting point for rookie expectations, I’ve ranked the top 50 rookies in terms of their fantasy football potential.

I’ve tried to give a bit of insight on why a handful of players could fit, why the team drafted them and roughly what to expect from there. I’ve included the position rankings across all positions.

Quarterbacks

Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams
Despite the fact that he inherits a Rams offense that, outside of Todd Gurley, doesn’t have an offense well-built to allow for a rookie quarterback succeed, Goff still should finish as a top-20 fantasy quarterback. Being assured of a starting job early in the 2016 season (likely for Week 1) is the main catalyst for that upside. To be optimistic, Goff’s anticipation and comfort-ability in his pocket movement could allow him for creative big play opportunities, especially if he can extend plays from the pocket just enough too allow for Tavon Austin to get separation. 

Paxton Lynch, Denver Broncos
Optimum Scouting’s top ranked quarterback, Lynch is the favorite to be the second rookie quarterback to see game action. The narrative that he’s a “project” and will need time before he can handle the NFL is misguided. His footwork and mechanics certainly need work, but his poise under pressure, arm talent and over-arching confidence should allow him to be a learn-as-he-goes quarterback. I expect him in the starting lineup around mid-season, barring injury, and leading the Broncos into the playoffs in his rookie season. 

Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles
There’s been much discussion about the Bradford/Daniel/Wentz dynamic in Philadelphia. But as one person close to the situation stated to me, Carson Wentz is the team’s quarterback. Whether it takes an injury, a three-interception game from Sam Bradford or being ruled out of the playoffs for it to come to fruition, that’s just a matter of timing and circumstance. Wentz is still unlikely to play for the majority of his rookie season, but it’s naïve to think he won’t get game action during the 2016 season once the team starts to get antsy with their new quarterback. That said, I’m not bullish on his 2016 or 2017 upside.

Christian Hackenberg, New York Jets
Hackenberg’s fantasy value rests solely on the shoulders of Ryan Fitzpatrick. If Fitzpatrick doesn’t return to the team or the Jets continue to play their game of chicken, Hackenberg has a real chance to battle for the team’s opening day starter. Geno Smith hasn’t won over the job and has no ties to this new regime. While Hackenberg needs to instill a sense confidence and begin to resolve some mechanical issues, his primary value as a quarterback prospect was as a mentally and football IQ capable NFL starter. If he plays, it’ll likely be a Jay Cutler-light type upside with similar volatility as a rookie. 

Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
In an clearly ideal situation for any running back, the Cowboys drafted Elliott as their primary “win-now” draft pick. Elliott will be used as the compliment to Tony Romo’s offense and eventually become the face of the Cowboys offense moving forward. I expect they’ll still use some rotation, but he should still reach 1200 yards as a rookie running back, and may be worth a high second-round pick in redraft leagues, though I’d be cautious taking a rookie that high. 

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
I wasn’t Henry’s biggest supporter in the draft process because he’s a runner that needs the offense to be shaped to his abilities. Working with Demarco Murray may seem like a benefit in terms of staying fresh and keeping defenses off balance, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Henry struggle as Murray’s compliment early on, as the two’s styles don’t really mesh. Still, Henry should put up 700-800 yards in a run-heavy offense, which is plenty to be the #2 rookie running back in a lackluster 2016 class. 

Kenyan Drake, Miami Dolphins
While I had heard of the building draft stock of Kenyan Drake, I’m still surprised he went as high as he did on draft day (round three). Miami has taken a bold approach at the position, letting Lamar Miller walk and putting their faith in an injury risk in Jay Ajayi and a running back who has never gotten close to shouldering a running back load in Kenyan Drake. Still, Drake has third-down upside and has maybe the best situation to thrive and potentially become the feature back as a rookie after Ezekiel Elliott. 1000 total yards seems very possible in Miami. 

DeAndre Washington, Oakland Raiders
I didn’t catch on to Washington until later in the draft process, but he quickly grew into one of my favorite Day 3 running back prospects. The Raiders aren’t enchanted by Latavius Murray long-term and were looking at running backs in the 2016 draft. Throughout the weeks leading up to the draft, I was told they locked in on Washington, a testament to how much confidence they have in him. Don’t be surprised if he has a Giovani Bernard-like breakout as a rookie as the team’s change of pace, third-down and occasionally lead back during the 2016 season. I’m very bullish on his situation. 

Alex Collins/CJ Prosise, Seattle Seahawks
The feeling is Prosise will get work at both running back and receiver, but I believe both Collins and Prosise will be battling for the backup running back spot behind Thomas Rawls (and over Christine Michael). Prosise is a plus-athlete who’s best as a chess piece, but Collins is the runner we had rated higher (our third overall running back in the 2016 class) coming into the process. I expect Collins to be the #2 guy during the 2016 season.

Wide Receivers

Laquon Treadwell, Minnesota Vikings
Treadwell is atop the receiver list (and above Corey Coleman) for two primary and simple reasons: He’s in a more equip offense, and he’s better. Treadwell fills a major need for the Vikings as a big-bodied perimeter threat for Teddy Bridgewater, and though he’ll need time to develop separation-wise, an Alshon Jeffery comparison may not be that far off. He was the Vikings target on draft day (not Josh Doctson), and I expect him to enter the season as the team’s feature receiving weapon over Stefon Diggs. An 1000-yard season is certainly plausible. 

Corey Coleman, Cleveland Browns
As I wrote for Bleacher Report here, the Browns draft strategy for receivers was certainly unique and, in my opinion, a bit misguided. But taking Corey Coleman in round one, though I felt he wasn’t worth that high of a pick personally, isn’t one that deserves negative feedback. Coleman is an explosive vertical threat who’s awesome after catch and finishing under cornerback duress and in the redzone. Even though he’ll need route versatility development, I firmly expect Hue Jackson to use Baylor’s offense as a guiding force in his principles, as Coleman and his quarterback Robert Griffin were at their best when the offense was simplified and allowed their natural talents to thrive. I’d expect him to be a fringe WR2 by season’s end. 

Jordan Payton, Cleveland Browns
Not nearly on Coleman’s level, but Payton is my pick for the #2 Browns rookie receiver. The most polished comeback/dig/underneath route runner of the ones they selected along with having an NFL body type, Payton has a great opportunity to be the team’s outside receiver opposite Coleman should they release Brian Hartline. I’m not overly excited about his potential thanks to his limited upside and the Browns offense, but if you’re looking for a deep sleeper who may cement himself an NFL starter, Payton is worth considering. 

Will Fuller/Braxton Miller, Houston Texans
My love for Braxton Miller hopefully should be known by now, but if not, here, here, and here should a reminder. We ranked him higher than Will Fuller as a receiver prospect. He’ll need more time to refine himself as a route runner, as he’s still extremely raw in using his upper half to separate and overall double move refinement. But he’s developed so quickly over the last 12 months that I have no doubt he’ll be able to contribute as a rookie if they give him the opportunity. Fuller is already penciled in his a team’s #2 receiver, and he can add DeSean Jackson-like upside as a vertical threat. But Miller should also have a feature role by season’s end as a versatile slot presence, running threat and, eventually, Randall Cobb like impact that should instill fear into game-planning defenses. 

Malcolm Mitchell, New England Patriots
New England has Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola at receiver and two of the NFL’s best tight ends, but they still lack quality perimeter receivers. Malcolm Mitchell offers tremendous finishing ability away from his frame under duress and vertically, and showed (at the Senior Bowl especially) the ability to work as a comeback, post and dig-route receiver. I’d expect him to be the team’s #1 outside receiver, and while that may be, at best, fourth in line for targets, he still could see 50+% of the Patriots offensive snaps this year.

Tight Ends

Austin Hooper, Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta has needed tight end reinforcements for the last two seasons, and Austin Hooper can finally provide that. He’s an aggressive yet still developing blocker, which could limit his role on non-obvious passing downs. But he was utilized as a slot and perimeter receiver as well as a traditional tight end at Stanford, and that versatility could allow him to threaten as a Tyler Eifert seam threat, as the Falcons offense appears built to mimic Cincinnati’s success. Still, expectations should always be tempered for rookie tight ends. 

Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams
Given a second-round grade by the Rams before the off-field incident, they felt confident in his character to still add him as their first draft pick after Jared Goff. Higbee is a highly refined interior route runner for a tight end and offers awesome run after catch fluidity for a tight end. He’ll be battling with Lance Kendricks for tight end targets, but he’s the better option long-term. 400-500 yards is possible, depending on how quickly he gets on the same page as Goff. 

Hunter Henry, San Diego Chargers
Like Ladarius Green before him, I expect Henry to be frustratingly under-utilized behind Antonio Gates, but Gates’ injury proneness may open the door Henry to earn early fantasy opportunity. The fact that he’s a capable run and pass-blocker as well should allow the Chargers to utilize him more in two-tight end sets, something I’d expect them to do more of in 2016 to amplify their running game an give Phillip Rivers more blocking support to keep him healthy.

Overall
Below are the rankings of all rookies at this time once again. This is obviously fluid to change, and there’s the potential that some of these players don’t make their final roster. I’ll likely have a follow-up article closer to the end of training camp. Fantasy projections aren’t included, and this is not indicative of PPR vs. non-PPR. Rather, these rankings are tied to a players upside for playing time and production, rather than firm number projections.