1:00pm
Ralph Wilson Stadium
TV: CBS (map)
Radio: WDVE and other affiliates
The Steelers are coming off a big win over a good Giants team and now have to go on the road for two straight weeks before returning home to finish out the Pittsburgh Steelers Holiday Tour. I did a guest spot this week for the folks over at Buffalo Wins, a compatriot site on The Sports Daily network. The last time the Steelers were in Buffalo, Stevie Johnson dropped a sure touchdown in Overtime then tweeted “Why you do me like that God?” The Steelers have won 5 straight games and 9 of their last 10 against Buffalo with their only loss in that span coming in 1999.
What To Watch For
1. Which Ben?
Ben Roethlisberger has been fantastic at home this season. At Heinz Field, Ben’s numbers have been close to or better than Tom Brady’s season numbers. Despite missing the first four games, Brady still leads the league in passer rating. On the road, it has been a completely different story. Ben is just 3-3 and has a completion percentage 10% lower, has averaged over 100 fewer yards per game, and has averaged over 2 fewer yards per attempt. In raw numbers, Ben has a 60.2% completion percentage on the road, has thrown 8 TDs and 5 INTs, is averaging 6.47 yards per attempt and 233 yards per game with a passer rating of 81.9. His opponent this week have eerily similar numbers. Tyrod Taylor is 6-6 on the season, has completed 60.6% of his passes with 11 TDs and 5 INTs and is averaging 6.6 yards per attempt and 191 yards per game with an 84.6 rating. At home, Ben has been Tom Brady-esque. On the road, he has been Tyrod Taylor without the ability to run the ball. Which Ben shows up on Sunday will be a big indicator of who wins this game.
2. Stop the Run
The Buffalo Bills have the top rushing offense in the league. They have out-paced the Dallas Cowboys by over 70 yards and have scored 3 more rushing TDs (for a league high 23). The Bills are averaging an insane 5.4 yards per carry and 162 yards per game on the ground. The Bills have a three-pronged rushing attack, led by LeSean McCoy (949 yards, 9 TDs). McCoy is a factor in both the running and the passing game and is adept in the open field. The Steelers will need to key on him not only as a cut-back runner but also on screen passes (which we have been terrible at defending this season). In addition to McCoy, the Bills have gotten over 850 yards from QB Tyrod Taylor and backup RB Mike Gillislee, both of whom have scored 6 times. The Bills will spell McCoy with Gillislee and he is a capable back with a similar one-cut skill set to McCoy. Given the weather forecast of 2″-4″ of snow, both teams will be looking to run the ball to control the game. The Steelers need to stop the run and force the Bills to win through the air.
3. Take Tyrod Down
Tyrod Taylor has a skill set unlike any quarterback the Steelers have faced this year. He will chuck the ball down the field and give his receivers opportunities to win jump balls. He will go after big plays, which keeps the safeties deep. He is also an adept runner with 469 yards and 6 rushing TDs on the season. Taylor averages over 6 rushing attempts per game and is certainly a factor on any play. That being said, only Andrew Luck has been sacked more times than Taylor this season and he is averaging a sack on nearly 9% of his drop-backs. The only quarterbacks in the league sacked on more than 9% of their drop-backs are Josh McCown, Colin Kaepernick, and Cody Kessler. The Bills have given up the third-most sacks in the league, behind only Cleveland and Indianapolis. The Steelers will have the opportunities to get sacks in this game but need to finish the deal and get Taylor on the ground when they get a chance.
4. Get A Lead
Last week showed the good and the bad of the 2016 Buffalo Bills. Using their ground game, they ran out to a big lead against Oakland. However, once the Raiders started stringing drives together and scoring points, the Bills offense faltered. The Bills are not a team that is built to play from behind. Last week, the Steelers were able to take the Giants ground attack out of the game by building an early lead. The Giants were rendered one-dimensional with Eli Manning attempting 39 passes and the Giants running the ball just 14 times. Against a run-heavy team like the Bills, the Steelers need to build an early lead and force the ball into Tyrod Taylor’s hands. Taylor is averaging just 29 pass attempts per game and the Bills are 1-4 when he attempts 30+.
5. The Ryan Brothers
The Steelers have traditionally fared poorly against defenses coached by Rex and/or Rob Ryan. The Bills have a combination of the two with Rex as the head coach and his brother Rob as the defensive coordinator. This season, the Bills have been good against the pass but not as good against the run, allowing 6 teams to rush for over 100 yards against them, including giving up 183 and 139 on the ground to Jacksonville and Oakland the last two weeks. Statistically, this could be set up for Le’Veon Bell to have a monster day on the ground but given the weather forecast it’s hard to see the Bills not stacking the box against the run. Ben has struggled against the Ryan defenses in the past so the Steelers will need to be able to utilize their running game as they have the last three weeks when Le’Veon has gone over 100 each week.
The Playoff Race
The Steelers enter Week 14 at 7-5, sitting outside of the playoff picture based on the Ravens (7-5) holding the head-to-head tiebreaker in the division. In the Wild Card race, Kansas City’s win over Oakland on Thursday Night vaulted the Chiefs into the top spot in the AFC West which put Oakland (10-3) in the first Wild Card spot. Denver (8-4) currently holds the second Wild Card spot while Miami (7-5) is the first team out. Three AFC South teams (Houston, Indianapolis, and Tennessee) are all 6-6, along with the Buffalo Bills who are still not out of the race.
Arizona (5-6-1) at Miami (7-5) – The Steelers need the Dolphins to take on another loss or two before all is said and done as Miami has a head-to-head tiebreaker over Pittsburgh.
Broncos (8-4) at Titans (6-6) – Denver’s defense has been outstanding this year but Marcus Mariota has been hot lately. A Denver loss would put a lot of teams back in the hunt for a Wild Card spot.
Houston (6-6) at Indianapolis (6-6) – The winner of this game will take the lead in the AFC South.
Ravens (7-5) at Patriots (10-2) – Steelers fans will need to root for the Patriots to win on Monday Night. Ugh.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
