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Joe Robbie
Pro Player
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The Steelers are off to their first 4-1 start since 2010. As luck would have it, the sixth game of that season also featured a trip to Miami. You may remember that game as the one where Ben fumbled on the goal line late in the fourth quarter and it was ruled that because there was no clear video evidence of a recovery by either team, the ball reverted to the spot of the fumble. On the next play, Jeff Reed kicked what would amount to the game-winning field goal as the defense stopped the Dolphins last drive. The last time these two teams met was on a snowy December day in 2013 where Antonio Brown nearly completed a miraculous comeback by taking a multi-lateral play to the house as time expired, but just barely stepped out of bounds. Antonio Brown’s career has already been the stuff of legends in Pittsburgh, but can you even imagine the lofty status he would have if his toe had not brushed the sideline on that play? Hindsight is 20/20, but the Steelers would have made the playoffs if Brown would have scored on that play (or if Ryan Succop hadn’t missed a 41-yard field goal at the end of the Chiefs-Chargers game in Week 16, but that’s all in the past now, I’m totally over it). This time around, the Steelers enter on an absolute roll, having walked all over the Chiefs and pulled away from the Jets in the fourth quarter for a decisive win.
A number of people have tried to raise red flags about this being a potential “trap game” for the Steelers with a home date against the Patriots next week. While the Steelers have basically been a league-average team on the road against sub-.500 opponents over the last decade, most of their losses have come outside the Eastern Time Zone. If you’ve been reading the blog for a while, you know I’ve done extensive research on the Steelers horrendous splits outside the Eastern Time Zone. One of the most interesting things in that study (done before the 2015 season) was that time zone matters more than distance traveled as the Steelers were 4-0 in games 1000-1500 miles away in EST but 1-7 at the same travel distance outside of EST. The Steelers may not blow out the Dolphins, and history shows they tend not to cover the spread when favored by over a touchdown on the road. However, the Steelers are 8-4 under Tomlin on the road when favored by at least a touchdown and have won 5 of their last 6.
What To Watch For
1. Run the Damn Ball
The Dolphins run defense is terrible. Their whole defense is awful as they are one of 5 teams that has allowed over 400 yards per game. Miami is last in the league in run defense, allowing over 150 rushing yards per game and have given up over 160 in 3 of their last 4 games. The Steelers did a lot of things schematically last week against the Jets to get Le’Veon Bell away from the Jets athletic defensive linemen, but you should expect a heavy dose of Bell this week against Miami. The Dolphins simply can’t stop anyone, which is compounded by the fact that they are the 6th-most penalized team in the league and routinely give up extra yards. Ben will always have that gunslinger mentality and want to air it out, but when facing a defense this bad, it never hurts to have someone as good as Le’Veon Bell that you can simply hand the ball to and let him take care of business.
BREAKING NEWS: @MiamiDolphins to repaint endzones for game against Steelers this weekend! pic.twitter.com/W7iDM65ijR
— Eldon Jenson (@EJFootball) October 10, 2016
2. The Walking Wounded
The Steelers have scored big victories the last two weeks but they have not been without a cost. Last week saw Cam Heyward go down with a hamstring injury that will likely keep him out until after the Week 8 bye. This opens the door for third round pick Javon “The Gravedigger” Hargrave and Ricardo Mathews to get increased snaps in the nickel defense. Ryan Shazier will be out again this week, but Vince Williams has been an absolute beast in replacement over the last two weeks. In the secondary, Robert Golden and Justin Gilbert are expected back this week. On offense, Marcus Gilbert remains out which means Chris Hubbard will start again at right tackle. The wide receiver depth chart was ravaged this past week as Markus Wheaton was declared out, Sammie Coates is questionable with a laceration on his hand (that got him 7 stitches at halftime last week) AND with a broken index finger. Eli Rogers is due back from a turf toe injury but this leaves the Steelers with Antonio Brown and Darrius Heyward-Bey (who is also dealing with a shoulder injury). The Steelers called up Cobi Hamilton from the practice squad, but with this many injured receivers, it would be nice if they could lean on Le’Veon for a week. Thankfully, as I’ve mentioned, this is the perfect game for that as the Dolphins run defense is terrible.
3. The Philosophical Divide
The Steelers have always built their team through the draft. They have promoted players from within and tend to give the biggest contract extensions to players that have come up through their system. Despite that, every year there is a never-ending cycle of clamoring for the Steelers to sign a big-name free agent (particularly at cornerback, sometimes at the expense of one of the best players in the league like Le’Veon Bell). What would a team of free agent “splash” signings look like? The Dolphins, pun intended. The Miami Dolphins, especially on the defensive side of the football (remember, the one that sucks?) are a team of mercenaries. This offseason, the Dolphins basically did what many have been calling for the Steelers to do – dumped money into their secondary in free agency. They traded for former Seahawks corner Byron Maxwell who was entering the second year of a 6-year $63 million deal he signed with the Eagles. They signed former 49ers and Redskins corner Chris Culliver to a one-year $3.5 million deal and former Lions safety Isa Abdul-Quddus to a 3-year $12.75 million deal. Between those three players, they added nearly $13 million in 2016 cap hits. That is on top of the massive deals they signed Ndamukong Suh and Mario Williams to over the last few years. Of the 22 players on the Dolphins “two deep” defensive depth chart, only 6 were drafted by the team and one (CB Tony Lippert) played wide receiver in college. By contrast, only 7 of the 22 players on the Steelers “two deep” were not drafted by the team. There is absolutely a philosophical divide in the “proper” manner for team-building between Pittsburgh and Miami, and it is fascinating to see how it plays out week after week, season after season on the gridiron.
4. The Road Blacks
This weeks @steelers uniform in Miami. @SteelersUnite #HereWeGo #Steelers #SteelersNation pic.twitter.com/ObLtaqxEpP
— Steelers Equipment (@SteelersEquip) October 12, 2016
This will be the 10th time under Mike Tomlin that the Steelers will wear their “road blacks.” The NFL’s jersey policy gives the prerogative to the home team to choose their jersey combination and the visiting team (except in a color rush cash-grab scenario) must counter with the “opposite” (light/dark) uniform. Typically, teams have tried to force the Steelers into wearing their road blacks when the weather forecast calls for sweltering heat because the teams think this will put the Steelers at a disadvantage by having to wear black. This famously happened on the first three road trips in 2010 where the Steelers went to Tennessee, Tampa, and Miami and played in 90+ degree heat in all three games wearing their home black jerseys. The Steelers won all three of those outings. In fact, the Steelers are 6-3 overall under Mike Tomlin when wearing their black jerseys on the road. In addition to the 3 wins in 2010, the Steelers won in Miami in 2011 and at Jacksonville and Tennessee in 2014. The 3 losses were at Philadelphia in 2008, the opening week loss to Baltimore in 2011, and the overtime loss to Dallas in 2012. Ben Roethlisberger has never lost in the state of Florida with 3 wins over the Dolphins and Super Bowl XLIII in Tampa (Charlie Batch won the 2010 game against the Buccaneers). Interestingly, the Steelers have not lost in the state of Florida since 1998 when they lost to both the Dolphins and Bucs in the same season.
5. Tannehill the Turnover Machine
Ryan Tannehill was the third quarterback taken in the infamous 2012 NFL draft behind Andrew Luck and RG3-and-13. Tannehill showed flashes early in his NFL career of being a capable starter but has devolved into an absolute disaster this season. Color me shocked that the guy who was Tim Tebow’s quarterbacks coach in Denver then Jay Cutler’s offensive coordinator the last year has struggled to show Ryan Tannehill how to be a successful NFL QB. The Dolphins have committed the third-most turnovers in the league with Tannehill throwing 7 interceptions and fumbling 4 times while being sacked 17 times. Only Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jameis Winston have thrown more picks this season and they have attempted 51 and 36 more passes than Tannehill, respectively. Only Andrew Luck has been sacked more. Tannehill’s terrible ball security has started to lead for calls for him to be benched, and the Steelers defense can help expedite that trip to the pine by continuing their upward trend of pressuring the quarterback and forcing turnovers.
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