I preface this all with my intention isn’t to merely throw shit at the wall, nor is it to generate page views. Rather, this is linking something I’ve been told was in a play a while back and my attempt to flesh out how it may actually work out, despite the fact it is a long-shot still at this moment.
I’ll disregard for the moment that the Eagles or 49ers have genuine and high-level interest in trading up for Carson Wentz, which Adam Schefter said just today that the Eagles may be close to a trade for the second-overall pick. If either of those teams (or the Dallas Cowboys) move up for Wentz, no one should be entirely shocked. But here’s the fleshed-out rationale on the Broncos potential move, in four points
1. Denver Has the Picks, and Compensatory Picks
The Denver Broncos have ten picks in the 2016 NFL Draft, tied for the second most (Patriots in the lead) with the Cleveland Browns. And for a Denver team that has three compensatory picks this year (a third, fourth and sixth) and likely four more (two thirds, a fifth and a seventh) in 2017, according to OverTheCap.com, most of their 2016 and 2017 round picks could be on the table.
Denver doesn’t have any gaping needs other than quarterback, as this team is poised to make another run at a Super Bowl despite losing their first and second-string quarterback. Add in that they’re locked into three third-rounders and four Day 3 picks over the next two drafts thanks to compensatory picks, and they’ll have some wiggle room to fill depth spots moving forward. Add in that John Elway has proven highly effective in free agency, and the Broncos will need to start allocating their already tightening salary cap on young talent already on the roster, and they don’t have a substantial need for a host of draft picks the next two years.
For a basis point, here’s the trade I think fits, and we’ll be building on this too throughout this article.
Denver trades: 2016’s 1st (31st overall), 2nd (63), 3rd (94), and 5th, (157) and their 2017 1st, 3rd and 4th
Cleveland trades: 2016 1st (2nd overall), 2017 5th rounder
Four quick points: One, the Broncos have flirted with trading Aqib Talib this off-season, and he could possibly be moved to another team for an added draft pick asset. Two, with this trade, Denver would still have seven draft picks in 2016 and seven in 2017.
Three, Cleveland would own the last pick of the first, second and third round and first pick at the start of Day 2 and 3 of the draft. All of those picks could be valuable for further trade-down movement. Four, this trade would give Cleveland 12 draft picks this year, and the Browns desire quantity, not necessarily quality, of draft picks pre-draft.
- Denver’s Previous Interest in Bortles Trade Up
The Denver Broncos were in aggressive pursuit for Blake Bortles two years ago, and had he not surprisingly gone third-overall, Denver may have been his eventual destination. They picked 31 that year, and may have had to get to the top-10 to secure him, based on pre-draft buzz on Bortles eventual destination.
Fast forward two years, and the Broncos are more desperate for a franchise quarterback and are far better off with their current roster construction to support a massive trade up.
- Cleveland’s Potential Trade Value Chart
Back in 2011, Kevin Meers of Harvard Sports Analysis reimagined the old Trade Value Chart to better mimic the actual value of each individual draft pick. This valuation relied on “Career Approximate Value over Average” to assess what you should expect for each draft pick.
His study showed that while earlier round picks were less variable than later round picks in their potential to succeed, that picks should be valued MUCH more closely together than in the often-cited Trade Value Chart. For example, the old Trade Value Chart considered the 2nd overall pick to be worth 2600 points, while the 31st pick worth 600 points. By Mears calculation, the 2nd overall pick should be worth 435.7 points, while the 31st pick worth 203.1 points.
Why does this matter in this context? Because Kevin Meers is now the Director of Research for the Cleveland Browns, a team that’s been outwardly clear that they’ll be analytics focused.
Using the trade I laid out above (and projecting 2017 picks as one round below their 2016 point total), the Browns CRUSH in this trade, 759.2 to 494.7. Analytically (and assuming some, but not a ton of variation from Meers in his study), this trade is a huge coups for the Browns, and gives them 12 draft picks to work with as well as great return (and more picks) compared to the Rams.
- How Cleveland Values Cardale Jones, Paxton Lynch
The Browns need to take a quarterback in the 2016 draft. I don’t believe it’ll be Carson Wentz or Jared Goff, but Paxton Lynch or Cardale Jones may make more sense. With Robert Griffin pegged as the Day 1 starter and ready to prove himself, it makes far more sense to trade up in round one for Lynch or grab Cardale Jones at pick 32 rather than take a quarterback second-overall.
However, this is dependant on the Browns having a similar grade on Lynch and/or Jones that they do on Wentz and/or Goff. If Jones or Lynch are still highly valued by the Browns staff and not too far away in terms of value and scheme fit, this trade is a no brainer of the Browns. Why draft a quarterback at 2 when you can get a similarly graded one that you also like 15-20 picks later and add 5+ more draft picks?
If they value Lynch, it’s a bit riskier to make the move to 31, because I believe the Bears at 11, Bills at 19 and Jets at 20 could all be in the mix for Lynch, but they can certainly get back up there from 11 overall, especially if that means just getting above Buffalo and New York. And as for Cardale Jones, they may just have to leap Arizona to feel comfortable they’ll secure him.
Likelihood?
I’ll table exactly what the odds are it’ll happen until after the weekend, but it’s still certainly closer to a long-shot than one that’s likely to happen. Again, this quick article was meant to flesh out the possibility and prove it’s viable and potentially possible for Denver to pull this off. This also stems from my sources, who may not admittedly be as strong as other major media members but I trust them, that the Eagles may be in the market for a different player in a trade up and the 49ers may have their eye on Cardale Jones or Dak Prescott.
That all said, it’s at least fun to consider and think out the process of trade-ups like this. For many, the Denver-Bortles rumor may be news. No one saw the Falcons-Browns trade happening before it did in 2011. Smart, successful teams like the Broncos are able to keep things quiet, and I’m optimistic (if just for the fun of it) that Denver could one-up the Rams and pull off an even more improbable and shocking trade for a quarterback in the 2016 draft.
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