In the NFL Draft value is everything. It’s not quite as important as talent when determining draft position but it’s not too far off, either. This is the reason why every year there are mediocre to bad quarterbacks drafted with premium picks while better players at positions like running back and defensive line fall down the draft board.
By: Anthony Chiado
This valuation is, for the most part, a good thing. Picking the most talented players that play the positions that most impact the game is how you build the best football team. A less talented quarterback should be drafted higher than a slightly more talented player at a less premium position because the potential gain you get from hitting on a quarterback can transform a franchise.
The problem, though, is that the NFL and the media’s valuation isn’t always the way it should be. This is obviously a, somewhat, subjective argument and a lot of it depends on how you view the specific players, but the point stands. Quarterbacks like Jared Goff, who doesn’t have much hope to ever be among the elite at the position, or Carson Wentz, who has very little to build on in order to reach his ceiling, should not be top 5 locks while game changers Ezekiel Elliott might make it to the middle of the first round. There are many more examples like this, but I want to focus on Elliott and the running back position as a whole.
Running backs have fallen victim to this flawed valuation more than any other position. The narrative that you can’t, or shouldn’t, draft virtually any running back prospect in the first round is not only drawn out, but also a very poor approach. And there is data to back it up, but more on that later. It’s not hard to figure out why exactly running backs have fallen victim to plummeting draft value. With the increasing number of RBBCs (running back by committee) across the league and the surprising success of late round picks like Alfred Morris early in their careers, it certainly appears as though impactful running backs can be found virtually anywhere in the draft. The problem is that appearances can be deceiving and this case they are. In the 10 drafts from 2004 to 2014 the running backs drafted on day 3 with the 10 highest Career AVs (ProFootballReference’s “Approximate Value” which accounts for many factors to determine a player’s value) are as follows (in descending order): Darren Sproles, Ahmad Bradshaw, Marion Barber, Brandon Jacobs, Justin Forsett, Leon Washington, Alfred Morris, Rashad Jenning,James Starks, and Lamar Miller. Not exactly that impressive of a list, is it?
Not only are there less than a few actual starting caliber running backs that get drafted in the late rounds, the approximate value that third day running back selections return overall is below the average for all positions. There was a short piece published by Tartan Sports Analytics, a sports analytics site run by Carnegie Mellon students, last month that summarizes position based draft value. The data reveals that running backs drafted early are the third most valuable offensive position, behind only quarterback and offensive line. At the very top of the draft running backs are equally as valuable as the average between all other offensive and defensive positions, on Day 2 they become an even better investment as their value increases relative to that of other positions, yet on Day 3 running backs are on average a less valuable investment than players at other positions.
The value of running backs extends beyond what can be attributed directly to their performance on the football field, as well. The ripple effects that a great running back can have on an offense are astonishing. The biggest area where this can be seen is in offensive line play. When an offense has a great running back it allows for weight to be taken off of the offensive linemen because the running back is able to take on more of the work creating himself running lanes. That’s a big reason for why you saw the Steelers’ offensive line improve despite a similar talent level when Le’Veon Bell made the big jump into his second season and the Falcons’ offensive line performed well despite middling talent this past season as Devonta Freeman made a huge improvement in his second season. Running back performance is often attributed to offensive line play but you would be hard pressed to convince me that it isn’t the other way around. Good offenses don’t create good running backs. Good running backs create good offenses.
If there is any good running back in this draft it is Ezekiel Elliott. In fact, Elliott is probably be the best running prospect we’ve seen since Trent Richardson, who coincidentally is the one credited with spawning the downward spiral of running back value. There isn’t much Elliott can’t do on the field. As a runner he has the vision, footwork, and patience to navigate through the offensive line, along with the speed and agility to be threat in the open field, and the power and balance to be a threat in short yardage situations. On top of that, Elliott is also a threat as a receiver out of the backfield and is much more polished as a pass blocker than most running backs who come out of college. There really isn’t anything that he can’t do on the field and there really aren’t any limits to how he can impact an offense.
I’m not here to tell you exactly how and why Ezekiel Elliott is an elite running back and one of the best, if not the best, players in the class. I am here to tell you that he should not be devalued because of the position he plays. If anything, he should be more valuable because of the position he plays. It can never hurt to add good players to your football team at any and every level of the draft. It just so happens that with Elliot you get a fantastic player at a premium position. In a draft class as weak as this one that should make him a top 5 lock.
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