The Chicago Cubs are the consensus favorites to win their first division title since 2008, but will the Pittsburgh Pirates be able to keep them from the ultimate prize of their first World Series title in 108 years?
As part of the lead-up to the 2016 season, we continue our weekly preview of the National League and the competition the Pittsburgh Pirates will be facing. The final segment in the series wraps up the look at teams in the National League Central. We conclude by breaking down the odds-on World Series favorite Chicago Cubs.
In the first season under revolutionary manager Joe Maddon, the Cubs won an outstanding 97 games, yet they still finished third in the division. In 2015, the Cubs were the team of the future. Largely written off as a powerhouse-to-be, they were a powerhouse that was. Entering 2016, the Cubs are simply the powerhouse to beat. It’s difficult to find a weakness in the team that has taken the baseball world by storm.
Experts have been taken in by the Cubs’ high-profile free agents and talented young prospects. Last off-season, the Cubs spent roughly $230 million re-signing players and bringing in free agents, according to Spotrac. This off-season, they spent just under $328 million. Over the last two years, the Cubs have spent $558 million, while the Pirates have spent just $122 million.
They have the sixth-highest estimated payroll in baseball at nearly $163 million. In the NL Central, teams have either dumped payroll in a rebuilding effort, like the Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds, or remained relatively consistent in payroll trends, like the St. Louis Cardinals and Pirates, with the exception of the Cubs. The Cubs dropped dramatically from $141.1 million in 2011 to $92.7 in 2014 before rising exponentially the past two seasons.
The result of the Cubs spending has brought in Ben Zobrist, Dexter Fowler, Jon Lester, John Lackey, and Jason Heyward. Years of mediocrity also allowed the Cubs to build a formidable group of young, controllable players. Jake Arrieta will be paid well below market value. Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, and Addison Russell are a formidable trio of young players. Combined with Zobrist at second, the Cubs infield is arguably among the best in baseball.
It is the results of 2015 and expectations of an even better 2016 that have players, fans, and media all believing this may be the year of the Cubs, even if a movie doesn’t predict it. Trevor Cahill turned down a two-year offer to join the Pirates in order to join the Cubs. Heyward turned down offers from the Washington Nationals and Cardinals rumored to be of more value. Fowler was believed to have signed a deal with the Baltimore Orioles before news broke he re-signed with the Cubs just hours later.
With the Fowler signing, the Cubs have an outfield that could even go toe-to-toe with the Pirates in production. Javier Baez made great strides in 2015, but he will likely be relegated to a super utility role. Jorge Soler is the team’s fourth outfielder, despite the fact that he would be a starter on a number of teams.
The Cubs still have more talent on the way, and while they are clearly capable of putting together a solid bullpen, a strong rotation, and what could be the latest lineup to claim the nickname of murderer’s row, they are not without their weaknesses. The Cubs lack depth at some positions, which could prove to be a problem as the season takes its toll. Specifically, the Cubs have not found a catcher capable of satisfying the fans, and while they’ve quickly come to accept nothing but the best, it’s understandable they would be disappointed with the duo of Miguel Montero and David Ross.
[table id=109 /]2015 record: 97-65 (11-8 against Pirates)
2016 record projection: 96-66
Player(s) to watch: Wrong question, it’s easier to say which players are not worth watching.
Summary: On paper, the road to the NL Central division title goes through the north side of Chicago, but difficult has never stopped the Cardinals or the Pirates, although the 2016 division showdown has the makings of a bar fight where the last team standing wins. The real question will be which young players progress, which regress, if any, and which players fail to stay healthy. Will the rotation be as formidable as everyone thinks? Which team gets the lucky bounces that could swing the pendulum of momentum in their favor? The questions surrounding the Cubs are certainly the questions expected to be plaguing a World Series contender. One thing is certain: Pittsburgh Pirates fans impatiently wait for the day the organization will be able to or choose to spend more money to solidify the roster, like the Cubs are able to do.
That’s a wrap for the 2016 NL preview series. You can find all of our previews here.
Featured image photo credit: Gene J. Puskar/AP Photo
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