The Cincinnati Reds are hoping to reap the rewards after trading fan favorites for young prospects. Will the Pittsburgh Pirates be able to capitalize on a relatively young and inexperienced team in 2016?
As part of the lead-up to the 2016 season, we continue our weekly preview of the National League and the competition the Pittsburgh Pirates will be facing. The next segment in the series turns to individual teams in the National League Central. We begin by breaking down the rebuilding Cincinnati Reds.
While the city of Cincinnati was cooling down, the trade market for its team’s aging star players was heating up. Talks swirled around Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Todd Frazier, and Aroldis Chapman. Once the dust settled, the Reds had only dealt Frazier to the White Sox as part of a three-team deal, and Chapman to the New York Yankees. Now that spring training is underway, it is unlikely that any of their remaining high-priced players will be dealt before the season begins.
Votto is a true talent, an unstoppable force even into his thirties, but ownership will still be forced to live with the regret of the ten-year, $225 million contract extension Votto was signed to in 2012, of which at least $199 million is still owed. The deal will keep opposing teams from doing much more than feigning interest, while Votto could remain in a Reds uniform until he is 41.
The Reds are the supreme example of the type of mistake the Pirates simply cannot afford to make. The Reds signed players to lengthy, expensive contracts at the height of their abilities without having previously established an assembly line of prospects capable of complimenting the core of their organization. The result was a team struggling through a disappointing 2015 season, just barely avoiding 100 losses, with the lone highlight being Great American Ballpark hosting the All-Star game. Sounds oddly familiar to the 2006 Pirates, no?
Yet how did a team that eerily compares to some of the darkest days in the history of the Pirates organization experience so much success against the beloved Buccos in 2015?
The Pirates held the advantage in almost every pitching and batting category, but the Reds matched the Pirates every step along the way in the standings, all the way to the magic number of 98. Of course, that total was at opposite ends of the spectrum for the two teams.
Opposite ends of the spectrum was indeed the plot of the Reds-Pirates rivalry in 2015. The Pirates had no answer for the Reds, despite dominating just about everyone outside of their division foes. The Reds had no answer for just about anyone, despite making the Pirates look foolish both at the plate and on the mound.
As a whole, Reds pitchers had a .258 batting average against (BAA) to go along with a 4.35 ERA. Against the Pirates, those same Reds pitchers had a .225 BAA and a 3.22 ERA, including a 2.77 ERA at PNC Park. Conversely, the Pirates pitchers had a .248 BAA and 3.23 ERA overall in 2015. Against the Reds, they allowed a .266 BAA and a 3.75 ERA, including a 4.24 ERA in the bandbox that is Great American Ballpark.
Who was most responsible for the discrepancy?
For a man that made $12 million in 2015, Jay Bruce was arguably one of the most overpaid players in the division, despite delivering 26 home runs. He proved pretty useful against the Pirates, however. On the season, Bruce batted .226/.294/.434. Against the Pirates, he hit .266/.333/.453. Billy Hamilton hit .226/.274/.289 in 2015, but he hit .250/.306/.250 against the Pirates. Arguably the 16 stolen bases he recorded against the Pirates was more important, considering it was just one less than he got against the Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, and St. Louis Cardinals combined. Todd Frazier hit .255/.309/.498, but once again, another Red outperformed his season averages against the Pirates. He hit .270/.329/.581 against the Pittsburgh club. It wasn’t just how much he hit that hurt. Frazier consistently delivered key hits against the Pirates in 2015.
Individually, Reds pitchers were equally exceptional against Pirates hitters. Aroldis Chapman shut down hitters to the tune of a .181 BAA and a 1.63 ERA in 2015, but the Pirates hit Chapman for a .167 BAA and a 0.87 ERA. Mike Leake had a .243 BAA and a 3.70 ERA. He had a .204 BAA and a 2.03 ERA against the Pirates, which which seemed to bode well for the Pirates facing the Reds after Leake left in free agency. It doesn’t bode well now, however, for the Pirates after Leake signed a five-year, $80 million contract this off-season with the Cardinals. The blackout may have gotten to Johnny Cueto, but it was Cueto who had the last laugh. The perennial destroyer of the Pirates was far from stellar overall in 2015, as he pitched to a .242 BAA and a 3.44 ERA. But hee was stellar against the Pirates, as he allowed no runs on Opening Day. His only start against the Pirates before being dealt to the Kansas City Royals resulted in a .160 BAA.
[table id=97 /]2015 record: 64-98 (11-8 against Pirates)
2016 record projection: 73-89
Player(s) to watch: Jon Moscot, Billy Hamilton, Eugenio Suarez, Jose Peraza
Summary: The Pirates struggled against Reds elite players. Thankfully, Chapman, Leake, Cueto, and Frazier will all have to be replaced in 2016. Eugenio Suarez and Anthony DeSclafani have experienced success in limited action against the Pirates, but the Pirates had their share of success against Raisel Iglesias in 2015. Homer Bailey is reportedly ahead of schedule in his recovery from the Tommy John surgery he had last May, but it would be overly optimistic to expect him back before some point in June, at the earliest. The Pirates will have to capitalize on DeSclafani and Iglesias getting starts at the top of the rotation until then. They will have ample opportunity with nine games against the Reds before June.
Next week, we continue this series with an in-depth look at what the Pirates will face in the 2016 Brewers.
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