The experienced St. Louis Cardinals enter 2016 in stark contrast to the youthful Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs, but that’s hardly an excuse to discredit their chances.
As part of the lead-up to the 2016 season, we continue our weekly preview of the National League and the competition the Pittsburgh Pirates will be facing. The next segment in the series continues the breakdown of individual teams in the National League Central by looking at the defending division champion St. Louis Cardinals.
UPDATE (3/7/16 – 5:44 PM): This morning, it was reported the Cardinals shortstop Jhonny Peralta will likely miss 2-3 months following a thumb injury. He will seek a second opinion, but it is likely Jedd Gyorko will have to fill in until Peralta returns sometime in May or June. The loss of Gyorko from the bench to a starting spot leaves an open spot for Greg Garcia as the team’s utility infielder.
Coming off of three straight division titles and a World Series appearance just three seasons ago in 2013, it would be hard to imagine the Cardinals aren’t the unanimous favorites to win the division in 2016, but that’s exactly the scenario the red birds find themselves in heading into spring training this year.
Since breaking the longest losing season streak in North American professional sports, the Pirates have yet to capture a division title, but despite playing second fiddle to the Cardinals each of the last three seasons, the Bucs have not finished more than three games back of their closest rival in any of those three seasons. In 2015, the Pirates-Cardinals rivalry was the greatest rivalry in baseball by far. It certainly wasn’t without its low points, like the Cardinals capturing the division title at PNC Park in a rout during the second half of a September double-header.
It also saw some high points, also conveniently at PNC Park.
Returning much of the team that won 100 games just a year ago, the Cardinals stand at a fork in the road. Down one path, they continue a success story of one of the few franchises in the 21st century that has managed to hack the secret to continued success. Down the other, they succumb to the fate of fading into the twilight zone of being neither good enough to contend nor bad enough to rebuild.
The Cardinals lost both John Lackey and Jason Heyward, unfortunately, to the division rival Cubs. For the dramatic reduction in cost, the 25-year old Stephen Piscotty should be a somewhat worthy replacement in right field. In a decent sample size in his first year in the big leagues, he hit .305/.359/.494 with seven homeruns and 39 RBIs. His range factor is certainly a downgrade from Heyward, but it cannot be emphasized enough how vital it can be for a team to get similar production from a player making the league minimum before arbitration compared with a player that got a $184 million contract.
The Cardinals replaced Lackey with Mike Leake, essentially a more expensive Jon Niese. Comparatively, Lackey had an unusually superb year. While the 37-year-old has not been incapable of posting numbers worthy of a middle of the rotation starter at times in the past, Leake is significantly younger and more consistent. In 2015, Lackey posted an ERA+ of 143, while Leake had an ERA+ of 106; ERA+ measures ERA against the league average to take out any outstanding ballpark factor. For perspective, 2015 ERA leader Zack Greinke had an ERA+ of 225, while the average is exactly 100.
Fresh off his recovery following an Achilles injury that knocked him out for most of 2015, Adam Wainwright has already received the nod to start Opening Day against the Pirates. During spring training, Wainwright has not been intimidated by the memory of his unfortunate injury trying to leave the batter’s box. As the video shows below, Wainwright looks to return with a vengeance in 2016.
Video of the day: @UncleCharlie50 goes wayyyyy out. The reactions are genuine. #STLCards pic.twitter.com/r8GfgBPJBE
— J.J. Bailey (@TheJJBailey) February 28, 2016
As impressive as Wainwright could be, he may end up being upstaged by 24-year-old future superstar Carlos Martinez. After watching Martinez workout this spring, Wainwright said, “I don’t think he looked like the Carlos of old at all. I think he looked better than I’ve ever seen him look. I think he looked better than anyone I’ve ever seen throw a live BP.” Martinez posted an impressive 3.01 ERA, but that did little to stop the Pirates last year as they hit .281 off the young righty. He also sported a 4.91 ERA against them. Hopefully, his new approach doesn’t lead to new, better results.
For another recent addition to the Cardinals, the Pirates are already aware of what new results can mean. While he has never been much of a threat for average at the plate, a change of scenery for Brandon Moss did wonders to help him become a serious power threat. He will compete with Matt Adams for playing time at first.
The Cardinals are as notorious for making the most of low profile prospects as the Pirates are for fixing pitchers, but after a rather quiet off-season, the red birds seem seriously lacking for quality bench players. Look for Jedd Gyorko, Greg Garcia, Brayan Pena, Matt Adams, and Tommy Pham to start the season as the bench players. The Cardinals seriously lack quality MLB-ready prospect options in the event of an injury, so they may be a candidate to target some of the remaining free agency possibilities.
[table id=107 /]2015 record: 100-62 (10-9 against Pirates)
2016 record projection: 85-77
Player(s) to watch: Carlos Martinez, Seung-hwan Oh,Stephen Piscotty
Summary: The Cardinals are being projected to finish second, or even third, in the NL Central in 2016. They are being dramatically underestimated, and that makes them very dangerous. While they may not have gone out and spent $300 million this offseason like some teams, the standard rule applies in which you don’t have to go out and spend exorbitant amounts of money when you already have a team capable of winning it all. Until someone finally unseats them as the division champs, the Cardinals will still be the team to beat in the National League. Look for another back and forth struggle for superiority atop the division standings this season.
Next week, we wrap up this series with an in-depth look at what the Pirates will face in the 2016 Cubs.
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