Another Ontario Hockey League regular season is in the books, and the play-offs will begin this week. We’ll be previewing both conferences, with me nabbing the Eastern Conference and Paul tackling the Western side of things.
While the Western Conference had more of a battle for the top spot – a three-way dog fight between Kitchener, London and Erie most of the season, with London and Erie pulling away and determining the Conference points-leader on the last weekend of the season, the Eastern Conference was more of a mish-mash. Up until the final week of the season, four teams were fighting for fourth place in the conference and home-ice advantage for the first round of the play-offs. Also, two teams were vying for the final play-off spot.
In the end, it came down to these eight.
Note: for team previews, “GD” will refer to “goal differential”, and “est FenClose” will refer to the team’s “Estimated Fenwick Close”, as posted by the always amazing Prospect Stats dot com.
1 KINGSTON FRONTENACS (46-17-5, 3.63 goals/game, +60 GD, 54.7% est FenClose) vs
8 OSHAWA GENERALS (27-33-8, 2.85 goals/game, -37 GD, 50.7% est FenClose)
Kingston spent most of the season leading the Eastern Conference, handily winning the East Division by 22 points over second place Ottawa. On the other side of the coin, the reigning OHL and Memorial Cup champion Generals are in the midst of a re-build. They were in a dog fight for the eighth and final play-off spot until the last week of the season, and clinched not thanks to a win, but due to Hamilton losing a game. Oshawa celebrated their play-off berth by… losing 7-0 to these very Kingston Frontenacs. Oops.
Kingston is led by a powerhouse top line of Michael Dal Colle (NYI 1st 2014), Spencer Watson (LAK 7th 2014) and Warren Foegele (CAR 3rd 2014), the former two logging 1.83 and 1.39 points per game respectively. Dal Colle in particular was dynamite for the ‘Nacs, posting 55 points in 30 games after a mid-season trade from… Oshawa. Yikes. Kingston boasts two Panthers picks up front as well, with 2015 1st rounder Lawson Crouse (62pts in 49gp) and 2014 3rd rounder Juho Lammikko (55pts in 59gp) anchoring the second line.
On the back end, the team relies on defensively responsible blueliners rather than flashy offensive machines. The defense is lead by Carolina prospect Roland McKeown (LAK 2nd 2014, later traded for Andrej Sekera), who chipped in 42 points in 59 games, and Stephen Desrocher (TOR 6th 2015), who had 35 points in 52 games after coming over from Oshawa early in the season. Kingston’s defense on the whole was strong, as they finished with second fewest goals allowed in the league. Goalie Lucas Peressini was also a big part of that, posting a 90.6% save rate, good for 8th in the OHL.
Oshawa team captain Anthony Cirelli lead the Gennies with 59 points in 62 games. Speedy winger Kenny Huether finished just behind Cirelli, with a team leading 26 goals and 58 points in 64 games. Eric Henderson, who was picked up from London, put up 18 points in 30 games, largely playing on Oshawa’s top line.
The Generals blueline is anchored by 2016 NHL Draft eligible Riley Stillman (21pts) and 2015 NYI 3rd rounder Mitchell Vande Sompel, who lead the defense with 10 goals and 38 points in 46 games while battling injuries all season. Vande Sompel is really the only offensive-minded defender on the team, and was a big favourite of mine in his draft year. He hasn’t quite been as dynamic this season, owing to lack of firepower surrounding him, but has been effective in his role.
Looking ahead to the 2016 NHL Draft, Oshawa should see Stillman (rank 88) drafted in the mid-to-late rounds. Forward Domenic Commisso (rank 123) also has a chance to be drafted, and Henderson, who didn’t make the NHL Central Scouting mid-term rankings, will likely find himself ranked on the Central Scouting Final Rankings, and may be a candidate for a late-round pick. The Frontenacs most notable 2016 NHL Draft eligible player is defenseman Konstantin Chernyuk, ranked 104th in the mid-terms. He played in just 37 games this season and notched only five points.
I don’t hold the Frontenacs in as high a regard as teams like Erie, London, or even Kitchener, but they are easily one of the top two teams in the Eastern Conference and should roll over Oshawa.
Prediction: Kingston in five
2 BARRIE COLTS (43-22-3, 4.31 goals/game, +89 GD, 49.8% est FenClose) vs
7 MISSISSAUGA STEELHEADS (33-30-5, 3.13 goals/game, -13 GD, 46.6% est FenClose)
Despite losing 100 point man Joseph Blandisi and 40 goal scorer Brendan Lemieux from last season’s team, Barrie is still a powerhouse in the Eastern conference. They dominated the Central Division all season thanks to the OHL’s leading point getter, Kevin Labanc (SJS 6th 2014), who scored 127 points in 65 games. Calgary 2015 6th rounder Andrew Mangiapane put up 51 goals in 59 games, as well. Barrie is a veteran-laden team, with 13 of their 18 regulars being 19 or 20 years old.
Beyond Labanc and Mangiapane, the Colts also boast high-end snipers like Dylan Sadowy (SJS 3rd 2014), who scored a whopping 25 goals in 28 games after coming over from Saginaw early in the season. They rotate two impact centres in the top six, overager Justin Scott (65pts in 67gms) and Anaheim 2014 2nd rounder Julius Nattinen (71pts in 52gms), giving them one of the most feared top five forwards in the OHL.
Barrie is home to arguably the top goalie in the OHL in Mackenzie Blackwood (NJD 2015 2nd). He lead the league with a 92.1 sv%, and Barrie was a different team without him, allowing nearly four goals per game without Blackwood in net. Calgary 2nd rounder Rasmus Andersson is the offensive catalyst on the blueline for Barrie. Andersson reached the 60 point plateau for a second year in a row, with nine goals and 51 assists in 64 games. Not to be outdone, undrafted overager and captain Michael Webster pitched in 44 points, while also being relied on as the team’s shutdown defender.
Mississauga is home to three potential first round picks in this year’s NHL draft, and they are also the three most offensively talented players on the team. Alexander Nylander lead the team with 75 points in 57 games, while Michael McLeod notched 61 in 57. The third potential first rounder, Nathan Bastian, finished with 59 points in 64 games. Otherwise, the team is a “score by committee” crew, with only undrafted overage winger/defender Josh Burnside topping 40 points (45 in 55 games), and five others scoring 10+ goals on the season.
Beyond McLeod (ranked 6th), Nylander (3rd) and Bastian (19th), Mississauga defenseman Sean Day is ranked 43rd in the mid-terms and will likely be a 2nd or 3rd round pick. Barrie has a couple of low-end eligible players, the most notable being forward Ben Hawerchuk, son of Barrie coach Dale Hawerchuk. Hawerchuk ranked 159th in the mid-terms and likely will drop on the final list. Defenseman Justin Scott didn’t make the mid-terms, but it would not surprise me to see him ranked in the mid-100s on the final rankings.
This is going to be the Colts’ last hurrah, as they will be losing Labanc, Mangiapane, Sadowy, Scott, Webster, and possibly Andersson to pro hockey next season, and don’t have a big crop of prospects to take their places. They are going “All-In” and should be the team to meet Kingston in the Eastern Conference Finals. Mississauga’s young core of players may not be ready for this much, this soon. It seems like they are building something big for next season, so this play-off run is a pre-cursor to what could be a big surge for them in 2016/17.
Prediction: Barrie in six
3 NORTH BAY BATTALION (35-23-10, 3.51 goals/game, +16 GD, 50.8% est. FenClose) vs
6 PETERBOROUGH PETES (33-28-7, 3.5 goals/game, -16 GF, 50.4% est. FenClose)
As is the trademark of Stan Butler-coached teams, North Bay is a super hard-working, two-way, deep as hell squad, who can attack you in all game states. They boast one of the most aggressive penalty kills in the league, scoring 23 shorthanded goals, while giving up just 48 (a 32.3% goals for rate). The Battalion are in the lower-end of the upper echelon of OHL teams, but are always sneaky good and are built for play-off success.
North Bay is lead by LAK 2014 3rd rounder and team captain Mike Amadio, who has improved by leaps and bounds every year of his OHL career. He scored 50 goals (and 98 points) this season, first on the team by 29 points over second leading scorer, overage Matthew Santos (69pts in 64gms). North Bay has five other forwards who scored more than 10 goals for them this season, including undrafted 19 year old Brett McKenzie, who potted 26 goals and 53 points and has a shot to be a second-year eligible drafted player this season.
The Petes leading scorer is overager Hunter Garlent (40g, 87pts in 68gms). 2014 Buffalo 2nd rounder Eric Cornel also contributed 83 points, while another overager, Greg Betzold, lead the team in scoring with 43 goals. Beyond that dynamic trio, Peterborough had three more 20 goal scorers, in Jonathan Ang (21g, 49pts in 68gms), Steven Lorentz (23g, 48pts in 58gp), and Logan DeNoble (20g, 42pts in 63gp). Adam Timleck (19g, 35pts in 59gp) just missed the 20 goal mark, largely due to being injured by Sudbury’s Zach Wilkie near the end of the season.
Peterborough gave up a bunch of goals this season (259, 6th worst in the league, 2nd worst among play-off teams), and also allowed a ton of shots (2350, 4th worst in the OHL, and worst among play-off teams), owing to a less-than-stellar defensive group. Goalie Matthew Mancina was their saving grace, as he posted a 91% save rate on the season. Unfortunately, Mancina missed a bunch of games due to injury and may not be 100% heading into the play-offs, and his back-ups – Dylan Wells, in particular – were not up to the task of replacing him.
North Bay’s big draft eligible is defenseman Cam Dineen (mid-term rank 117). After a slow start (6pts in 15gms), Dineen put up 53 points in 53 games to close out the season, making him one of the potential biggest risers for the final rankings. On Peterborough’s end, Ang is their most highly-regarded draft eligible, ranked 137. He is a good bet to get a boost in rankings based on his 14pts in 15gms to finish the season. DeNoble, unranked at mid-terms, may find the final rankings after posting 28 points in his final 24 regular season games.
The Petes and Battalion each finished with 240 goals scored on the season, but the difference was defense and goaltending, as North Bay gave up 227 goals, compared to Peterborough’s 259. While North Bay’s team may not be the most skilled, they are going to give fits to the Petes blueliners, and that’s likely going to result in a series victory.
Prediction: North Bay in seven
4 NIAGARA ICE DOGS (35-26-7, 3.13 goals/game, +18 GD, 52.7% est. FenClose) vs
5 OTTAWA 67’s (36-29-3, 3.41 goals/game, +14 GD, 50.6% est. FenClose)
Niagara is now home to two Columbus Blue Jackets prospects, defenseman Blake Siebenaler (2014 3rd) and freshly signed free agent pick-up Jordan Maletta. Both play strong two-way roles on Niagara. The IceDogs were poised for a big campaign this year, and it’s fluttered somewhat, as they only clinched fourth place in the Conference in the last week of the season. Meanwhile, Ottawa has been inconsistent all season, especially after having traded away their franchise player, Travis Konecny (PHI 1st 2015), to Sarnia at the trade deadline.
The IceDogs boast a strong top six, featuring two 1st rounders in Brendan Perlini (ARI 2014) and Josh Ho-Sang (NYI 2014) – the latter leading the team in points, with 82 in 66 games – and one of the top overage players in the league in Stephen Harper, plus Maletta and Pavel Jenys (MIN 7th 2014). They also have very good bottom six depth, with Graham Knott (42pts) and Johnny Corneil (41pts) providing secondary and tertiary scoring options. On the blueline, dynamic defender Vince Dunn (STL 2nd 2015) leads the team in average icetime, and scored 43 points in 52 games. He has been on-again/off-again with injuries, and his health is going to be a big factor in just how far the team progresses into the play-offs.
Niagara’s goaltending is another strength, with Carolina prospect Alex Nedeljkovic (2014 2nd) being rock solid after being acquired in a trade from Flint early in the season.
Ottawa actually outscored Niagara during the regular season (232 to 213), despite far less “sexy” names in their top group. Shifty forward Dante Salituro, who will be re-entering the draft this year after being passed over last season, was by far the team leader, with 83 points in 65 games. That total was good for 27 more than second place forward Jeremiah Addison, who had 56 in 66. The blueliners also produced some offense, as 6’7” Stepan Falkovsky, overager Evan de Haan, and team captain Jacob Middleton notched 32, 32 and 31 points respectively.
I have Niagara pulling off the win in this series, just due to more dynamic scoring options up front, and a far superior goaltender.
Prediction: Niagara in six
I see the OHL Eastern Conference finals coming down to the top two teams in the league: Kingston and Barrie. The dark horse candidate would be North Bay, who have a real shot to upset and return to the Conference Finals (or beyond) for the third year in a row.
– Jeremy
Follow me on twitter, @307x.
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