Entering a contract year, Francisco Cervelli looks to repeat or improve upon his surprising performance in 2015.
This off-season the writers at Pirates Breakdown will take a look at two different sets of projections for meaningful players on the roster and give you, the readers, their take on whether or not they think said player will meet, surpass, or fall below those projections. The projections for Steamer and ZiPs (created by Dan Szymborski) can be found on fangraphs.com. Yesterday, Ethan tackled utility man Sean Rodriguez. Today, we turn to one of the most underrated catchers in the league, Francisco Cervelli.
Arguably the most pleasantly surprising player in 2015 for the Pirates was new addition Francisco Cervelli, who had the tall task of trying to come close to filling the shoes of Russell Martin. While he may not have done that, he certainly came as close as he could to doing so. Now, as Cervelli enters a contract year, he looks to hopefully replicate his success in 2015, or even improve upon it.
Cervelli’s future is uncertain. He and the Pirates reportedly haven’t discussed an extension, and he may already be out of the team’s price range. We also know the contract year phenomenon, which is surely in play with Cervelli, as he likely won’t get an extension done with the team before Opening Day.
His performance in 2016, above all else, will hinge on him staying healthy. He’s proven throughout his career that he is an above-average offensive player when he’s on the field, and his pitch framing is among the best in the league. Let’s take a look at how the projections see his 2016 season playing out:
[table id=68 /]Both Steamer and ZiPS see Cervelli battling injury in 2016, based on his dip in plate appearances from last season. If healthy, Cervelli should notch over 120 games played and at least 450 plate appearances. Steamer sees almost a 100 plate appearance decline from 2015 for Cervelli, while ZiPS sees almost a 200 plate appearance decline. That’s Steamer expecting at least a 15-day DL stint for Cervelli, and ZiPS a much longer period of time lost to injury. The only other way Cervelli could lose that many plate appearances would be by losing playing time to Chris Stewart or Elias Diaz, which I don’t see happening, at least in 2016.
It’s expected that the projections would see a dip in home runs, RBIs, and the like if they project injuries. But both systems see at least a 15 point drop in average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. In fact, both systems see him having a lower AVG/OBP/SLG line than his career line. I happen to disagree with both systems.
Cervelli has consistently shown that, when on the field, he can put up above-average offensive stats. I don’t see his average being lower than .270, and while I can’t predict injuries, I don’t foresee him missing much time in 2016. I also see him stealing close to his career high of four stolen bases that he had in 2011. The key, of course, will be staying healthy, but if he does, expect another good offensive year from Francisco Cervelli.
*Neither system makes projections for defensive or pitch framing stats, and I’m not certain if the Steamer WAR takes into account these things. This obviously is a huge part of Cervelli’s game, and will impact his WAR in 2016.
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