2016 Pittsburgh Pirates projections – Gerrit Cole

Having broken into the national spotlight last season, Gerrit Cole is gunning for another top five NL Cy Young finish in 2016.

This off-season the writers at Pirates Breakdown will take a look at two different sets of projections for meaningful players on the roster and give you, the readers, their take on whether or not they think said player will meet, surpass, or fall below those projections. The projections for Steamer and ZiPs (created by Dan Szymborski) can be found on fangraphs.com. Check out all of our previous projections here.

If the current Pirates team were to have a “franchise four” core players, Gerrit Cole would certainly be one of them. He has lived up to his pedigree as a number one overall draft pick, and had a breakthrough season last year as arguably one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. It seems like the past three years he’s only gotten better, and took a huge step forward last year. This upcoming season, there is going to be even more pressure on Cole to deliver as an ace, with questions surrounding the back-end of the rotation.

Let’s see what the projections have in store for Cole in 2016:

The first thing you notice is that both projections see Cole’s ERA jumping back above three, and his projected stats overall seem to have Cole pitching more towards his career averages than his 2015 campaign. While pitching to either of the projections would still be a quality season for Cole, in a baseball era where pitching reigns supreme, and based on his 2015 performance, Cole can certainly beat these projections.

For one, Cole’s walk rate per nine innings dipped under two in 2015, and the projections see that rate jumping back above two in 2016. I disagree with this assessment. As Cole continues to adjust to the majors and improves his off-speed pitches, he shouldn’t see too many major dips in his walk rate, unless he suffers an injury of some kind. I also think Cole will eclipse 200 innings and 200 strikeouts again, unless he suffers an injury, which ZiPS doesn’t see him doing.

What does Gerrit Cole have to do to beat his projections in 2016? For one, he has to stay healthy. He did last last season after spending some time on the disabled list in 2014. He also has to continue to improve his off-speed pitches in order to limit walks, which he’s been able to do year after year.

I see Cole pitching to a sub-three ERA again next season, as he feasts on the rebuilding Brewers and Reds, who I feel have gotten much worse than the Cardinals and Cubs have better. It should be exciting watching Cole take the mound for every one of his starts next season.

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